Aljazeera published on 24 September 2026 an article titled "Fighting Widens across Ethiopia as Tigray Clashes Escalate" by Faisal Ali.
Officials in Ethiopia's Tigray Region claim federal government troops have launched a "full-scale offensive" against it while the central government charges that the Tigray People's Liberation Front launched the attack. Whatever the case, the security situation in Tigray Region and neighboring territory has deteriorated.
Saxafi Media posted on 23 August 2026 an interview with me titled "Inside Washington's Somaliland Dilemma: David Shinn Reveals What U.S. Policy Really Means."
Although much of the interview deals with Somaliland, it covers issues throughout the Horn of Africa and beyond, including US support for Somalia sovereignty, Israel's recognition of Somaliland, importance of Ethiopia, the conflict in Sudan. Egypt's role in the region, security in the Red Sea, competition with China, the role of African diasporas, and the contribution of UN agencies and IGAD.
The Stimson Center published on 24 June 2026 a report titled "The UN Mission in South Sudan in the Context of Changing Security and Regional Dynamics."
The report concludes that the combined effects of a fragile peace process, heightened political tensions, economic deterioration, the spillover of conflict from Sudan, the emerging Ebola crisis in the neighboring DRC, and growing humanitarian pressures have created a volatile environment in South Sudan.
South Sudan continues to grapple with unresolved questions surrounding the political transition and the lack of implementation of the Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan (R-ARCSS), which remains the primary political framework for addressing the conflict and advancing sustainable peace.
AEIs Critical Threats Africa File posted on 11 June 2026 an article titled "Sudanese Political Dialogue" by Michael DeAngelo.
Political organizations aligned with the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) met in Addis Ababa in early June when they produced a roadmap for ending the civil war. Several key groups did not participate or did not accept the outcome, raising doubts whether any progress has been made in ending the war.
Ethiopia Insight published on 20 May 2026 a commentary titled "The AU Turned Pretoria into Abiy's Shield" by Desta Haileselassie Hagos, Howard University.
This account provides one interpretation for the failure to implement the Pretoria Agreement in a manner that ends conflict in Ethiopia's Tigray Region.
The International Crisis Group posted on 19 March 2026 a 36-minute podcast titled "What Is Really Going on in the Horn?" with Alan Boswell and Moses Chrispus Okello, Institute of Security Studies.
The drivers of conflict and instability in the Horn of Africa are no longer confined to the Horn, which is being absorbed into the geopolitical arena of the Red Sea and Gulf States. External actors are contributing to fragmentation in the Horn that is rooted in domestic politics.
Landlocked Ethiopia is key to stability in the region because it borders all other countries in the Horn, is the most populous, and is now trying to obtain access to the Red Sea.
Chatham House published on 13 February 2026 a commentary titled "The AU Summit Is an Opportunity for Decisive Action to End the War in Sudan" by Hubert Kinkoh.
The author argued that the 14-15 February African Union Summit was an opportunity for decisive leadership on Sudan. The AU has been increasingly peripheral to competing diplomatic tracks. The AU must assert its primacy and enforce diplomatic coherence.
The International Crisis Group posted on 15 January 2026 a 39-minute podcast titled "The Ethiopia-Eritrea Standoff" with Michael Woldemariam, University of Maryland, and Alan Boswell.
Tension between Ethiopia and Eritrea continues to grow. Both countries are increasing their purchase of weapons and extending their competition into the conflict in Sudan. International pressure may be restraining direct conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea. The political space in Tigray Region continues to fragment, although the faction aligned with Eritrea now has the upper hand.
Landlocked Ethiopia is pressing its effort to gain access to the Red Sea, now focusing on Eritrea's port of Assab, which is driving the tension with Asmara. Eritrea takes the position that it cannot negotiate its sovereign territory. Both countries also compete to be seen as leaders in the region.
Saudi Arabia and the UAE are engaging in open conflict in Yemen and in the Horn of Africa. Eritrea wants Saudi Arabia to counter UAE influence in the region. Addis Ababa probably viewed Israel's recognition of Somaliland favorably while Asmara opposed it.
One development that would improve relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea is an end to the conflict in Sudan. This would remove a point of contention and open the door to a rapprochement.
Ethiopia Insight published on 12 January 2026 a commentary titled "The Geopolitical Ripple Effects of Somaliland's Recognition" by Muktar Ismail, regional analyst.
Israel's recognition of Somaliland sparked a largely negative international response, underscoring its isolation on the issue. Of the 15 member states of the UN Security Council, only the United States defended Israel's right to recognize Somaliland. The al-Shabaab terrorist organization, which controls parts of Somalia, cast the decision as a "Zionist crusader project."
The Eastleigh Voice published on 16 December 2025 an article titled "Police Repel Al-Shabaab Raid on Chinese Workers' Camp in Mandera" by Mary Wambui.
Police in Mandera, Kenya, repelled an al-Shabaab attack from neighboring Somalia on a Chinese contractor's residence. Al-Shabaab damaged some equipment but did not injure any Chinese nationals.
The Norwegian Institute of International Affairs and SIPRI published in December 2025 a report titled "Abyei: Climate, Peace and Security Fact Sheet."
Abyei's contested status, its weak governance, and elite-driven politics continue to fuel insecurity. Increasing climate variability undermines food security and livelihood activities, particularly livestock and seasonal pastoralism. Intensifying seasonal hazards, such as floods, drive displacement and worsen the humanitarian crisis in Abyei.
The BBC posted on 12 December 2025 an article titled "Eritrea Quits Regional Bloc as Tensions Rise with Ethiopia" by Tesfalem Araia.
Eritrea has withdrawn from the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), accusing the organization of "becoming a tool against" countries like itself. The withdrawal from the Horn of Africa organization follows a fierce war of words between Ethiopia, current chair of IGAD, and Eritrea.
The International Crisis Group posted on 8 December 2025 a 38-minute podcast titled "Global Disorder, Horn of Africa Turmoil. Can Europe Keep Up?" with Alan Boswell and Heiko Nitzschke, Germany's special envoy for the Horn of Africa based in Nairobi.
Maritime security in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden looms large in the policies of Germany and Europe. The Horn of Africa is increasingly being impacted by multilateralism. Europe is only one among many engaged players in the Horn. African countries in the region ultimately will determine the role that Europe plays. Europe's strength is the reliability of its interest and engagement. Its priority for the conflict in Sudan is to achieve a ceasefire and ameliorate the humanitarian crisis.
US foreign aid cuts sent shockwaves through European and Horn of Africa capitals. European countries are trying to fill some of the gaps left by the United States, but they too are turning increasingly to private investment. US policy in the region has also become more unpredictable. A new order is emerging in the Horn, especially with greater involvement of the Gulf States and Türkiye. Finally, Nitzschke expressed concern there is now a serious risk of renewed conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea.
POLITICO published on 19 November 2025 an article titled "The Next Item on Donald Trump's Foreign Policy Agenda: Sudan" by Gregory Svirnovskiy.
At the request of visiting Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, President Trump said he would engage personally in efforts to end the humanitarian crisis in Sudan. He acknowledged that the issue had not previously been on his agenda.
The Eastleigh Voice published on 18 November 2025 an article titled "IGAD Leads New Push for Peace in Sudan as Regional and Global Partners Back Three-step Plan" by Mary Wambui.
This article provides an update on efforts by special envoy Massad Boulos and the US-led Quad (US, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and UAE) to end the conflict in Sudan. The Quad's three-step plan begins with a three-month humanitarian truce, followed by a permanent cease fire, and concluding with a nine-month political process to establish a civilian-led government. The African Union, Intergovernmental Authority for Development, European Union, and League of Arab States support the initiative.
Tigrai Press aired a 40-minute video interview with me on 19 November 2025. Bisrat Bahta asked the questions, all of which dealt with current issues in the Horn of Africa.
The Africa Center for Strategic Studies published on 17 November 2025 an analysis titled "Somalia at Risk of Becoming a Jihadist State" by Matt Bryden, founder of Sahan, a policy and research center focused on the Horn of Africa.
The author has extensive experience in Somalia and Somaliland. He says al-Shabaab now controls about 30 percent of Somalia's territory, far more than the federal government in Mogadishu, and poses a serious threat of taking the capital. The federal government is heavily reliant on the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission for security.
Somalia's economy is fractured and heavily dependent on three major ports of Kismayo, Mogadishu, and Bossaso while Berbera supports Somaliland. The ports, in turn, empower different federal states that often defy central government authority. The author concludes that Somalia faces a prospect that it may become an illiberal Islamist state.
The International Crisis Group posted on 30 October 2025 a 33-minute podcast titled "The Trial of South Sudan's Vice President Riek Machar" with Alan Boswell and Edmund Yakani.
The podcast unpacks the charges against Vice President Riek Machar over his alleged role in a March 2025 attack on an army base in Nasir. It also discusses if there remains a viable path to avoid civil war in the country.
Agence France Presse published on 9 October 2025 an article titled "Ethiopia Accuses Eritrea of 'Actively' Preparing for War."
Ethiopia's foreign minister sent a letter last week to UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres stating that the hardliner faction of the Tigray People's Liberation Front "and the Eritrean government are actively preparing to wage war against Ethiopia."
The Reporter published on 11 October 2025 a commentary titled "Defusing the Mounting Ethio-Eritrea Tensions."
It suggests there is still a narrow window for preventive action and calls for the reopening of diplomatic channels between Ethiopia and Eritrea and a mediated dialogue by a neutral third party such as the Africa Union or the United Nations.
The Emirates Policy Center posted on 9 October 2025 a commentary titled "Quad Initiative to End the War in Sudan: Positions and Challenges."
The United States, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and the UAE introduced an initiative to end the conflict in Sudan. This paper analyzes the potential success of the initiative within the context of ongoing military and political developments in Sudan. The brief concluded that the initiative could play a crucial role in shaping the path toward a peaceful political resolution in Sudan.
The Heritage Institute for Policy Studies published in June 2025 a document titled "Somalia's Post-Conflict Experience: Political Rifts, Security Challenges, and Social Crises."
It contains 6 conference papers by different authors from the December 2022 Annual Forum for Ideas held in Djibouti and hosted by the Heritage Institute for Policy Studies. The first section examines governance crises, security threats, political divisions and three key types of conflict that continue to shape the political and social realities of post-civil war Somalia. The second section presents viable solutions aimed at fostering reconciliation and social cohesion.
A key lesson to be drawn from this analysis is that the interplay between governance disputes, militant insurgencies, and social intolerance among the people demonstrates the complexity of Somalia's challenges.
