Interview on the Horn of Africa

 Saxafi Media posted on 23 August 2026 an interview with me titled "Inside Washington's Somaliland Dilemma: David Shinn Reveals What U.S. Policy Really Means."

Although much of the interview deals with Somaliland, it covers issues throughout the Horn of Africa and beyond, including US support for Somalia sovereignty, Israel's recognition of Somaliland, importance of Ethiopia, the conflict in Sudan. Egypt's role in the region, security in the Red Sea, competition with China, the role of African diasporas, and the contribution of UN agencies and IGAD.

US AFRICOM Commander Says No Plans for Base in Somaliland

 Somalia Today published an article dated 1 August 2026 titled "AFRICOM Chief Rules Out US Military Base in Somaliland" by Mohamed Bashir.

General Dagvin Anderson, head of the US Africa Command, said in an interview published by the US embassy in Mogadishu on 31 July that "there are no plans to build a base in Somaliland."  He added that "US policy is and remains the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Federal Republic of Somalia.  That has not changed."

The United States has maintained contact with Somaliland officials and supported development and security programs in the region without recognizing it as a separate state.  

US-China Competition in the Middle East and North Africa

 The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace published on 1 July 2026 an analysis titled "In the Middle East and North Africa, America and China Converge More Than They Diverge" by Amr Hamzawy and Kathryn Selfe.

Competition between the United States and China in the Middle East and North Africa is less a threat and more an opportunity.  The region has important geostrategic significance for both countries.  As great power competition develops globally, Washington and Beijing's positions in the region are increasingly converging.  

The United States and China are united by their primary interest in maintaining free trade in the region.  For both countries, a stable, peace-driven order is key.  Washington is also driven by interest in Israel's security; Beijing is similarly driven by China's need for oil and liquid natural gas.  These two interests are compatible and underscore the need for peace and stability in the region.  

The Scramble for the Red Sea

 The International Crisis Group posted on 29 June 2026 a 41-minute podcast titled "The Scramble for the Red Sea Is Not Cooling Down" by Alan Boswell with Federico Donelli, University of Trieste and author of a new book on the topic.

The scramble for control in the Red Sea region began during the Cold War and increased in intensity in the 21st century.  There are now many new actors in the Red Sea.  Middle powers have become as significant as major powers.  

Russia has been seeking, so far without success, a military base in the region for years.  China established a military base in Djibouti to protect its interests in the region and to extend global power.  The Gulf states, especially Saudi Arabia, have become much more engaged in the Red Sea.

The US/Israeli war against Iran has underscored the importance of the Red Sea for international shipping.  The European Union is the one grouping that should be more engaged in the region than it is.  

Djibouti's Strategic Location in the Red Sea Region

 The International Crisis Group posted on 4 June 2026 a 26-minute podcast titled "Tiny Djibouti and Its Prime Real Estate" with Alan Boswell and Samson Abebe Bezabeh, University of Hong Kong.  

They discuss Djibouti's role as a "garrison state," how it benefits from hosting foreign military bases, and why its strategic position may be changing as Ethiopia seeks alternative sea access.

China Supports Egyptian Military Modernization and Seeks Influence

 Modern Diplomacy published on 6 May 2026 a commentary titled "Egyptian Military Bases: A Strategic Linchpin for China's Interests in the Eastern Med and Red Sea" by Nadia Helmy, Beni Suef University.

China seeks to leverage the development of Egyptian military bases as centers for Chinese military technology, especially UAVs and advanced air defense systems.  By supporting Egyptian military modernization, China also weakens Cairo's military dependence on the United States.  

Turkey-Israel Tension in Horn of Africa and Beyond

 The Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies published on 6 January 2026 an analysis titled "From Syria to Somaliland: Turkey-Israel Competition Reshapes Region" by Burcu Ozcelik.

Turkey has a strong relationship with Somalia, increasing interests in the region, and opposes Israel's recent recognition of breakaway Somaliland.  This development adds to tension between Turkey and Israel in the Horn of Africa.  Turkish and Israeli interests also diverge sharply in Syria, Gaza, Cyprus, and Greece.

Djibouti's Presidential Transition in April 2026

 The Emirates Policy Center published on 7 November 2025 an analysis titled "Djibouti at a Crossroads: The Presidential Transition Crisis Ahead of April 2026 Elections."

President Ismail Omar Guelleh is considering amending the constitution to pursue a sixth term.  Three scenarios now face Djibouti's political future: (1) a constitutional amendment allowing Guelleh to remain president for a sixth term; (2) a controlled and negotiated transfer of power; or (3) elections that result in an alternative candidate from the Issa clan assuming office.  

China-US Competition in Djibouti

 The Atlantic Council published on 31 July 2025 an analysis titled "Djibouti Is the Next Arena for US-China Competition in the Red Sea" by Emily Milliken.

The author asks how the US can maintain or strengthen its influence in Djibouti when China is providing billions for infrastructure development.  Greater US support for American investment, partnering with the UAE, encouraging the use of Israeli technology, and engaging the country with strategic clarity would improve Washington's position in Djibouti.

China's PLA Troops March in Comoros Independence Day Ceremony

 China Military Online published on 7 July 2025 an article titled "PLA Support Base in Djibouti Participates in 50th Anniversary of Comoros' Independence" by Wang Zongyang and Dong Mingli.

Following its participation in Madagascar's Independence Day celebration (see 4 July below), a unit of PLA troops from China's military base in Djibouti repeated the performance on 7 July at the 50th anniversary of the independence of the Comoro Islands.  On this occasion, they joined marching units from Tanzania and Morocco.

Comment:  This is another example of PLA military diplomacy in the Indian Ocean region.  

Russia Transitions Wagner Group to Africa Corps in Africa

 AEI's Critical Threats published on 12 June 2025 an analysis titled "Wagner Out, Africa Corps In" by Liam Karr and Kathryn Tyson.  

Russia's Wagner Group formally withdrew from Mali and transitioned the Russian military presence to the Africa Corps.  As the Wagner Group pulls out of Mali, al-Qaeda and Islamic State-affiliated insurgents are stronger than ever.  

Russia is also trying to transition from the Wagner Group to the Africa Corps in the Central African Republic.  Responsibility for Russian operations in Africa will now rest squarely with the Kremlin although Russian billionaire Gennady Timchenko may play a key role in the operations.  

The Importance of Diego Garcia to US Strategy in the Indian Ocean

 The Foreign Policy Research Institute published on 21 April 2025 an analysis titled "How the UK-Mauritius Deal on Chagos Could Reshape US Military Strategy in the Indian Ocean" by Raghvendra Kumar.  

Diego Garcia hosts a joint Anglo-American military base with a deepwater port capable of berthing aircraft carriers, a long runway that enables deep-strike operations and accommodates heavy bombers and refueling aircraft, advanced satellite communication facilities, and strategically pre-positioned military support and supplies.

The Diego Garcia base, which most recently has been used to launch airstrikes against Houthi targets in Yemen, remains critical to US military strategy in the Indian Ocean.  It provides the strategic depth necessary to deter aggression, defend US interests, restore freedom of navigation, and secure vital sea lines of communication.   It takes on added importance as China expands its military footprint in the Indian Ocean region.  

Is Gabon the Location of China's Second African Military Base

 The Foreign Military Studies Office of the U.S. Army Training and Doctrine Command posted on 15 February 2025 a commentary titled "China Sets Sight on Gabon for Second African Military Base" by Jacob Zenn, adjunct professor at Georgetown University.  

The author argued that Beijing is targeting Gabon to host the second Chinese military base on the African continent following establishment of its first in Djibouti in 2017.  Evidence to support this conclusion seems to be based primarily on the September 2024 visit to Gabon by the PLA Navy hospital ship, Peace Ark.  

Comment:  While China probably does wish to establish a naval base on Africa's Atlantic coast at some point, the Peace Ark on this same trip also made calls at ports in Luanda, Angola; Brazzaville, Republic of Congo; Douala, Cameroon; Cotonou, Benin; and Nouakchott, Mauritania.  These ports and others are candidates for a future Chinese naval facility.  

US AFRICOM View of Security Situation in Africa

 The Center for Strategic and International Studies posted on 30 January 2025 a one hour and 15-minute podcast titled "AFRICOM at 17: Shaping U.S.-Africa Relations" with Mvemba Phezo Dizolele and Brigadier General Rose Lopez Keravuori, director of intelligence at U.S. AFRICOM.

This is a wide-ranging conversation with a person who has served for three and a half years as director of intelligence at U.S. AFRICOM.  It covers all parts of the continent and includes comments on other key external actors such as Russia, France, China, and Turkey.  

Russia Looks at Ports in Libya, Algeria, and Sudan as Potential Alternatives to Syria

 The Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies published on 14 January 2025 an analysis titled "Russia's Options for Naval Basing in the Mediterranean After Syria's Tartus" by Edward Black and Sidharth Kaushal.

In the event that Russia must close its naval base at Tartus in Syria, Mediterranean replacement options are Libya and Algeria and Sudan on the Red Sea.  Tobruk in Libya is the most likely alternative, but it comes with significant downsides.  

Growing Concerns about Russia's Ability to Provide Security in Africa

 Foreign Policy published on 31 December 2024 an analysis titled "The Illusion of Russian Security in Africa Has Been Shattered" by Samuel Ramani, CEO of Pangea Geopolitical Risk.  

Due to Russia's setback in Syria, African autocracies are second-guessing Moscow's ability to serve as their last line of defense in a moment of crisis.  In any event, Russia's track record for providing security in Africa has been underwhelming.  

Libya and Sudan are highly problematic as replacement locations for Russian air and naval bases in Syria should they be asked to leave.

China and Maritime Security in the Gulf of Guinea

 The South China Morning Post published on 9 December 2024 an article titled "Maritime Threats High on Agenda as Chinese Navy Hosts Gulf of Guinea Security Forum" by Seong Hyeon Choi.

China hosted a two-day forum on the security situation in the Gulf of Guinea in Shanghai for representative of 18 countries from the region.

China's Security Presence in Africa

 The Center for Naval Analyses published in October 2024 a study titled "The Military and Security Dimensions of the PRC's Africa Presence: Changes in a Time of Global Shocks" by Tim Ditter, Kaia Haney, Tsun-Kai Tsai, and Carita Reid.  

The study concludes that China could use Africa as the testing ground for its aspirations of security assistance globally through the implementation of the Global Security Initiative, potentially foreshadowing a future more globally active PLA military and security presence.  

Addressing Conflict in the Red Sea Region

 The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute posted on 2 September 2024 a commentary titled "Navigating the Red Sea: Addressing Threats and Harnessing Potential" by Frederic Gateretse-Ngoga, Farea Al-Muslimi, Lisa Bostrom, and Veera Tuomala.   

The Red Sea has become a major flashpoint for regional conflict.  Operationalizing the Red Sea Council, established in 2020, could help mitigate tension in the region.  

Gulf States Increase Engagement in Africa, Raising New Issues

 The Council on Foreign Relations posted on 8 August 2024 an analysis titled "Africa and the Gulf Are Becoming Closer.  Will It Increase Global Tensions?" by Alexandra Dent and Mariel Ferragamo.

Qatar, UAE, and Saudi Arabia have increased their political, military, and economic engagement in Africa.  They have found willing partners with African governments but also exported Gulf State tensions to the continent.