China's Influence in Africa Increases on Political Issues

 The Interpreter, produced by Australia's Lowy Institute, published on 22 May 2026 a commentary titled "China's Influence in Africa Is No Longer Just Economic" by Isel Van Zyl. 

The author argues that the cancellation of overflight permission by Seychelles, Mauritius, and Madagascar for Taiwan's president to visit Eswatini, the only country in Africa that recognizes Taiwan, highlights that China's influence in Africa is no longer confined to the economic sector.

China's growing leverage in Africa is now expressed through diplomatic pressure, political signaling, and the ability to shape what governments, organizations, and even international conferences can and cannot do. 

Comment:  Beijing has exercised political influence in Africa for decades.  One only need compare African country voting patterns in the UN General Assembly or consider the publicly stated policy of most countries on China's core domestic issues such as Taiwan, Hong Kong, Tibet, Xinjiang, human rights, and island building in the South China Sea.  

Taiwan President's Secret Flight to Eswatini

 The New York Times published on 14 May 2026 an article titled "Inside the Secret Mission to Fly Taiwan's President to Africa" by Chris Buckley and Amy Chang Chien.  

Taiwan President Lai Ching-te's first attempt to visit Eswatini, the only African country that recognizes Taipei, was aborted when Seychelles, Mauritius, and Madagascar at the last-minute revoked permission to overfly their airspace.  This account details how Lai Ching-te managed subsequently to circumvent these denials by flying secretly on the royal jet that brought Eswatini's deputy prime minister to Taiwan for a visit.  

Taiwan President's Visit to Eswatini Strikes Nerve in Beijing

 Reuters published on 6 May 2026 an article titled "China Condemns Eswatini for Being 'Kept and Fed' by Taiwan in Travel Row" by Liz Lee, Ben Blanchard, and Lunga Masuku.

Beijing used strong language in condemning Eswatini, the only country in Africa that recognizes Taiwan, for receiving President Lai Ching-te.  Eswatini responded that Beijing's response falls short of the standards expected in respectful international discourse from a country that positions itself as a responsible global actor.

Comment:  Ouch! Score one for Eswatini.

Taiwan's President Finally Makes It to Eswatini

 The Associated Press published on 2 May 2026 an article titled "Taiwan's President Lands in Eswatini, under China's Shadow."

Taiwan's President Lai Ching-te finally made it to Eswatini, the only country in Africa that recognizes Taipei, on 2 May.  He had to reschedule his original visit when three African countries, reportedly under pressure from Beijing, cancelled overflight permission for his aircraft.  

Africa and the Press Freedom Index

 Reporters without Borders just published its 2026 "World Press Freedom Index."  It ranks 180 countries.  The United States dropped seven places to 64 compared to 57 in 2025.  

Ten African countries had better scores than the United States.  The top five African press freedom countries were Seychelles (35), Ghana (39), Cape Verde (40), Mauritius (42) and Gabon (43).  But African countries were also well represented at the bottom of the list.  The five worst performers were Eritrea (180), Egypt (169), Djibouti (167), Sudan (161), and Ethiopia (148).  Curiously, all five are in northeast Africa.

Foreign Minister Represents Taiwan at Eswatini Celebration

 The Taipei Times published on 26 April 2026 an article titled "Lin Chia-lung Visits Eswatini as Envoy."

Following the cancellation of overflight permission by Seychelles, Mauritius, and Madagascar for the president of Taiwan to attend the 40th anniversary of King Mswati III's accession to the throne, Taiwan's foreign minister arrived in Eswatini as his country's special envoy at the celebration.  

China-Taiwan Tension in Aftermath of Cancelled Visit to Eswatini

 Academicjobs.com posted on 23 April 2026 an article titled "China-Taiwan Tensions Escalate: African Airspace Denials Force President's Africa Trip Cancellation."

Taiwan President Lai Ching-te was set to attend the 40th anniversary of King Mswati III's accession to the throne in Eswatini.  The president cancelled the visit at the last minute when Seychelles, Mauritius, and Madagascar revoked overflight permission for the presidential aircraft.  

Taipei charged that Beijing pressured the three countries to revoke the overflight permission.  Beijing did not acknowledge any role but praised the action of the three countries.  The United States condemned China's intimidation campaign.

Taiwan President Cancels Visit to Eswatini Following Overflight Denial by Three Countries

 The BBC published on 22 April 2026 an article titled "Taiwan President Cancels Trip after African Countries Revoke Flight Permits" by Yvette Tan.

Taiwan President Lai Ching-te cancelled a trip to Eswatini, accusing China of putting pressure on other countries to bar his aircraft from flying over their territories.  A Taiwan official said Seychelles, Mauritius, and Madagascar revoked Lai's flight permits after "intense pressure" and economic coercion from Beijing.  

Africa and the 2026 World Happiness Report

 Gallup just released its "World Happiness Report 2026" that assesses 147 countries from 2023 through 2025.  The 2026 edition highlights the role social media plays in social connection, trust, and shared experiences worldwide.

The happiest African countries based on the social media focus were Mauritius (73), Libya (81), Algeria (83), Mozambique (93), and Gabon (96).  The least happy African countries were DRC (140), Botswana (143), Zimbabwe (144), Malawi (145), and Sierra Leone (146).

Comment:  There are surprises, at least for me, at both ends of the scale.  The focus on social media probably accounts for them

Chinese Artificial Intelligence Surveillance in 11 African Countries

 The Institute of Development Studies published in March 2026 a major study titled "Smart City Surveillance in Africa: Mapping Chinese AI Surveillance Across 11 Countries" edited by Wairagala Wakabi and Tony Roberts.

The report provides a comprehensive account of smart city surveillance in Algeria, Egypt, Kenya, Mauritius, Mozambique, Nigeria, Rwanda, Senegal, Uganda, Zambia, and Zimbabwe.  China is by far the largest supplier of AI surveillance technologies to African governments, including to all 11 covered in this study.  

The rapid expansion of smart city surveillance is having a chilling effect on ordinary citizens and journalists.  The scale and invasive nature of mass surveillance is often not legal, necessary, or proportionate.  There is little evidence that the expansion of digital surveillance reduces overall crime.

The Plusses and Minuses of China's Investment and Trade in Africa

 The Conversation published on 10 March 2026 a commentary titled "China in Africa: Investment and Trade Work Well When There's Strong Oversight, and Badly When There Isn't" by Vincent Tawiah, Dublin City University.

The author concludes that Chinese investment, loans, and trade in Africa offer substantial economic opportunity, but they can also lead to the rapid depletion of vital energy and forestry resources, undermining long-term development goals if institutional guardrails are weak.

Artificial Intelligence in Africa and Cooperation with China and US

 Nanyang Technological University posted on 24 February 2026 an article titled "The State of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in Africa" by Amit Jain.

This is a nice summary of the current state of artificial intelligence in Africa, the sectors that are most likely to benefit in the coming years, and the countries that are best positioned to take advantage of it. 

The Georgetown Journal of International Affairs published on 7 February 2026 an article titled "The United States, China, and AI Competition in Africa: Lessons for the Global South" by Alice Chen and Neel U. Sukhalme.  

This article (also posted below on 11 February) is a useful addition to this topic, which is fast becoming important to Africa's development.  

Bank of China and Ecobank Establish Relationship

 Econfin Agency posted on 24 December 2025 an article titled "Ecobank, Bank of China Sign MOU to Strengthen China-Africa Trade Flows" by Sandrine Gaingne.

Pan-Africa banking group Ecobank and Bank of China (Mauritius) signed a memorandum of understanding to strengthen the ties and facilitate economic exchanges between China and Africa.  

Africa and World Happiness Report

 The Wellbeing Research Centre at the University of Oxford published the World Happiness Report 2025.  The focus of this year's report is the impact of caring and sharing on people's happiness.  It includes factors such as giving money to charity, volunteering, and helping strangers.  It tries to measure the degree of benevolence in each of the 147 countries that it evaluates.  

The five highest ranked African countries are Mauritius (78), Libya (79), Algeria (84), South Africa (95), and Mozambique (96). Seven of the ten lowest ranked countries are in Africa: Lesotho (138), Comoros (139), DRC (141), Botswana (142), Zimbabwe (143), Malawi (144), and Sierra Leone (146).

American and Chinese FDI in Africa

 The China in Africa blog posted on 17 November 2025 an item titled "Has the US Overtaken China in African Investment?" by Deborah Brautigam.

American foreign direct investment (FDI) in Africa modestly exceeded Chinese FDI in Africa in 2022 and 2023 but in 2024 China's flow totaled $3.37 billion while the US flow was a negative $2.02 billion, meaning that American companies divested in 2024. 

Comment:  Annual flows can be terribly misleading.  Total FDI stock at any given time is a better indicator of a country's investment.  According to a recent Atlantic Council study, China's total investment stock in Africa peaked at about $45 billion in 2018. It subsequently declined slightly due to more divestment than new investment and totaled only about $42 billion in 2023.  Adding China's 2024 FDI to the total stock would bring it back to its 2018 peak, which suggests that Chinese FDI stock in Africa has been essentially flat since 2018.     

China's Proxy Investment in Africa and the Need for Transparency

 Daily Caller News Foundation published on 4 November 2025 an article titled "It's Time to Wake Up--China Is Taking Over Africa but It's Not Too Late" by Jacob Choe, Eurasia Center's Asia Program director, and James Carter, Navigators Global.  

China is engaging in proxy investment through Dubai, Hong Kong, Mauritius, and Singapore in order to obscure its investing footprint in Africa.  There is no coordinated US effort to track Chinese proxy flows.  The authors call for creation of a US-Africa transparency task force to monitor these flows.  

Africa: US Ends AGOA and China Gains

 The Foundation for the Defense of Democracies published on 30 September 2025 a policy brief titled "China Set to Fill Gap from Expiration of Key U.S.-Africa Trade Program" by Daniel Swift and Angela Howard.

The U.S. Africa Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) expired on 30 September, ending duty free access for many products from the continent.  Kenya, Lesotho, Madagascar, Eswatini, and Mauritius had taken particular advantage of AGOA since it was signed by President Clinton.  As Africa's largest trading partner, China is expected to benefit most from the decrease in US-Africa trade.  

China-India Competition in the Western Indian Ocean

 Stimson published on 20 August 2025 a commentary titled "India Must Level Up to Compete with China in the Western Indian Ocean" by Radhey Tambi.

The author argues that India is falling behind China's influence in the Western Indian Ocean and needs to step up its diplomatic, political, institutional, military, economic, and soft power engagement with the island countries if it intends to compete with Beijing.  

Contest for the Indian Ocean

 The July 2025 issue of Asia Policy contains a book review roundtable of Darshana M. Baruah's book titled The Contest for the Indian Ocean and the Making of a New World Order (Yale University Press 2024).  The focus of the book is great power competition and the role of the island countries in the Indian Ocean.

The roundtable consists of the following brief discussions:

--Power Asymmetry and Competition in the Indo-Pacific: The Island States of the Indian Ocean by Frederic Grare.

--Prioritizing the Indian Ocean in the Indo-Pacific by Nilanthi Samaranayake.

--The Agency of Island States in the Geopolitics of the Indian Ocean by Isabelle Saint-Mezard.

--The Island States Have Agency in the Contest for the Indian Ocean--But How? by Pradeep Taneja.

--Opening, Broadening, and Deepening the 'Geo' in the Geoppolitics of the Indian Ocean by Sanjay Chaturvedi.

--Author's Response: Reframing the Indian Ocean Debate by Darshana M. Baruah.

China Allows Citizens from 74 Countries to Enter without Visa--2 from Africa

 The Associated Press published on 9 July 2025 an article titled "Citizens of More Than 70 Countries Can Now Visit China Without a Visa" by Fu Ting.  

China has increased to 74 the number of countries whose citizens can enter for up to 30 days without a visa.  Only 2 African countries--Mauritius and Seychelles--are on the list.