Nigeria Increases Exports to China but Still Has Huge Trade Deficit

 Nairametrics posted on 15 August 2026 an article titled "Nigeria's Exports to China Surge 80% to $2.3 Billion in H1 2026" by Emmanuel Azubuike.

Nigeria's exports to China surged by 80 percent to $2.3 billion in the first half of 2026 driven by China's zero-tariff policy for African countries.  Total Nigeria-China trade for the first half of 2026 reached $18 billion, leaving a huge Nigerian trade deficit with China of $13.4 billion.

China is Nigeria's largest trading partner, accounting for 15 percent of Nigeria's total trade.  China exports value-added manufactured and industrial goods to Nigeria, which sends agricultural and primary products to China.

China's Zero Tariff Policy Seeks to Change African Trade Patterns

 Asia Times published on 27 July 2026 an article titled "China's Zero-tariff Play Aims to Lock in African Loyalty" by Bob Savic.

China's zero-tariff access for 63 countries--53 of them in Africa--is a deliberate geostrategic lever in Beijing's long-term competition with the United States and Europe for influence in the Global South.  It is designed to offer unfettered, predictable, and large-scale access for African exports in contrast to protectionist markets in the United States and Europe.

The zero-tariff policy also positions Africa's growing population as a significant long-term market for Chinese goods and services and helps China to shape the rules of global commerce.

Comment:  While this may be China's goal, it must still deal with the fact that Beijing exports far more to Africa than it imports from Africa, and the initial evidence suggests that the zero-tariff policy is not having a significant impact on this situation.

Sub-Saharan Africa Little Affected by Trump's New Tariffs

 The New York Times published on 24 July 2026 an article titled "New Tariffs as Old Ones Expire: The Latest on Trump's Trade War" by Tony Romm, Edison Wu, and Lazaro Gamio.

On 24 July, the Trump administration imposed new duties on imports from more than 80 countries as previous 10 percent global duties expired.  The new tariffs range between 10 and 12.5 percent.  

All five countries in North Africa now face the 12.5 percent tariff but sub-Saharan Africa seems to benefit from the new situation as only Nigeria, Angola, and South Africa are impacted--all at the 12.5 percent rate.    

China-Africa Trade First Half 2026

 Thierry Pairault just posted a paper titled "The Tariff Exemption Saga and the Results for the First Half of 2026."

China's zero tariff policy for all countries in Africa except Eswatini took effect on 1 May.  During the first half of 2026 Africa's trade deficit with China widened from $44.7 billion to $57.9 billion as of the end of the first half of 2026 compared with the first half of 2025.  Chinese exports to Africa rose by 21.8 percent and imports from Africa by 16.3 percent compared with the same period in 2025.

Eight African countries (South Africa, DRC, Zambia, South Sudan, Nigeria, Chad, Algeria, and Zimbabwe) accounted for about 94 percent of the increase in Chinese imports from Africa during this period.  Almost the entire increase in the value of African exports to China was due to the shock in world commodity prices, largely independent of the zero-tariff policy.  

African Coffee Exports to China and Zero Tariffs

 Thierry Pairault posted on 11 July 2026 an analysis titled "The African Coffee Industry and the Chinese Tariff Exemption."

This working paper examines how China's coffee market has evolved and the role that Africa has played in it.  Africa is a modest source (7.4 percent in 2024) for Chinese coffee imports.  Five African countries export green coffee beans to China: Ethiopia (70 percent of the African total), Uganda (20 percent), Tanzania (5 percent), Kenya (3 percent), and Rwanda (2 percent).  

China is a minor customer for African coffee and all five countries except Kenya paid no tariffs prior to China's recent Africa-wide zero tariff policy.  The zero-tariff policy will benefit Kenya.  In addition, African producers are confronted with importer-processors who set the conditions of the market.  China's tariff exemption matters little in terms of shaping of their industrial and commercial strategies given that it affects only minimal quantities.  

South Africa and China Sign Agreement to Expand Trade

 Further Africa published on 30 June 2026 an article titled "South Africa and China Sign Rules Pact to Unlock Zero-Tariff Trade Opportunities."

South Africa and China signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) aimed at converting China's zero-tariff treatment for African exports into practical commercial opportunities for South African businesses.  Because tariff preferences alone do not guarantee market access, the MOU deals with technical regulations, standards, product certification, inspection procedures, and conformity assessment systems.  The agreement signals a broader strategic deepening of South Africa-China trade.

African Sesame Exports and China's Zero Tariff

 Thierry Pairault published on 30 June 2026 an article titled "The African Sesame Industry and the Chinese Tariff Exemption."

China obtains from Africa more than 80 percent of its imported sesame seeds.  Six countries account for 95 percent of African sesame exports to China: Niger, Sudan, Tanzania, Togo, Mozambique, and Ethiopia.

China's recent zero tariff policy for African countries will primarily benefit Chinese importers-processors rather than African producers.  The tariff advantage is captured at the point of entry into China by companies whose shareholders are Chinese, Singaporean, and Taiwanese.  

Eswatini Sticks with Taiwan and Misses Out on China's Zero Tariffs

 African Arguments published on 25 June 2026 a commentary titled "Xi's Zero Tariff Offer to Africa and the Political Boundaries of Eswatini's Exclusion" by Francis Annagu, a freelance journalist.

China made imports from Africa duty free as of May 1 for all countries except Eswatini, which recognizes Taiwan.  The author suggests Eswatini decided to maintain its relationship with Taiwan because of its long friendship with Taipei that began well before China became a major economic power in Africa.  

The Promise and Disappointment of China's Zero Tariff Policy for Africa

 The Daily Maverick published on 10 June 2026 an article titled "China's Zero-Tariff 'Gift' to Africa Could Be a Trojan Horse in Disguise" by William Gumede, University of Witwatersrand.  

China's new zero tariffs for African countries offer an opportunity to industrialize but it will only happen if they leverage China to build manufacturing capacity in Africa, transfer technology and skills, add value to raw materials, and secure Chinese financing for industry relevant infrastructure.  

Is Chinese Manufacturing in Morocco a Platform to Avoid US and EU Tariffs?

 The ChinaMed Project published on 12 June 2026 an analysis titled "China's Industrial Footprint in Morocco: The Case of Tanger Tech" by Imane Ezzehouany and Amanda Chen.

As Chinese manufacturers expand their presence in Morocco, concern is mounting in Europe and the United States that the Kingdom may become an "industrial platform" for China to circumvent US and EU trade restrictions.

Tanger Tech City is an emerging Chinese platform for green manufacturing driven by a convergence of interests between China and Morocco.  

The African Cocoa Industry and the Chinese Tariff Exemption

 Thierry Pairault posted on 13 June 2026 an analysis titled "The African Cocoa Industry and the Chinese Tariff Exemption."

He concludes that an African entrepreneur manufacturing chocolate for export to Europe would face a 30 percent customs duty, whereas the Chinese market is now tariff free.  For exporters capable of meeting Chinese customs standards, there is a real comparative advantage.  However, the tariff exemption does not create the productive and logistical capacities necessary to exploit this advantage.  The risk is therefore a consolidation of primary commodity specialization rather than its attenuation.

The true obstacle is structural, not tariff related.  The fundamental difference between African and Asian supply chains is not access to raw materials, but where value is created through processing.  

China's Zero Tariff Policy Does Not Guarantee Access for African Exports

 The UK's Institute of Development Studies published on 10 June 2026 a study titled "From Market Access to Strategic Openness: The New China-Africa Business Relationship" by Jing Gu.

China's new zero tariff policy for Africa opens doors for increased exports to China but does not automatically increase them.  The real constraints are upstream standards compliance, rules of origin, certification, logistics, cold chains, customs systems, trade finance, and company-level capacity.  

Likely Impact of China's Zero Tariff Policy on African Imports (in French)

 GeopoWeb posted on 18 May 2026 an analysis titled "Africa, China, and Zero Tariffs: A Diplomatic Gesture Put to the Test by the Data" by Thierry Pairault.  

Effective on May 1, China began a policy of zero tariffs on imports from all African countries except Eswatini, which recognizes Taiwan.  Six African countries (South Africa, DRC, Angola, Guinea, Zambia, and Congo Brazzaville) now supply three quarters of China's imports from Africa.  Most of these imports consist of minerals, metals, and crude oil, which already enter China duty free.

A modest quantity of African agricultural products will benefit from the zero-tariff policy.  Landlocked African countries, which tend to be among the poorest, will receive little or no benefit from the zero-tariff policy because of transportation constraints.  In addition, non-tariff barriers such as sanitary standards remain in effect.  Thierry identifies several other barriers to increased African exports to China that will limit the impact of the zero-tariff policy.  He also compares the impact of EU and Chinese imports from Africa.

Thierry concludes the zero-tariff policy has less to do with rebalancing trade between China and Africa than it is an effective diplomatic tool at little cost to China but also limited in its economic impact.  

China Scores Points in Africa as US, EU, and Japan Fall Behind

 The Japan Times published on 7 May 2026 an article titled "Into Africa: China Continues Its Dominance on the Continent" by Brad Glosserman.  

The author writes that "as the United States creates barriers to trade and treats Africa with contempt and disdain, China scores points with a key diplomatic bloc and source of vital raw materials."  He argues that both Japan and the European Union need to do more to balance Beijing's determined effort in Africa.  

China's Zero Tariff Policy for Africa: An Opportunity Not a Guarantee

 B & FT Online posted on 29 April 2026 an article titled "Africa-China 2.0 with Paul Frimpong: Zero Tariff, Zero Excuses: Africa's Moment with China Has Arrived."

China's much heralded zero tariff policy for 20 more African countries, raising the total to 53 out of 54 countries on the continent, is an opportunity but will not guarantee significantly more African exports to China.  African countries must develop new trade strategies to take advantage of the opportunity and meet remaining Chinese quality and safety standards.   

China-Africa Trade Grows but So Does Africa's Deficit

 Ecofin Agency published on 27 April 2026 an article titled "China-Africa Trade in 2026: Cooperation, but Not on Equal Terms" by Idriss Linge.

As exports to the United States fall sharply, China is turning increasingly to Africa to export its consumer and industrial products.  During the first quarter of 2026, China-Africa trade reached $92 billion, up 27 percent year on year.  But while Chinese exports to Africa rose 32 percent, African exports to China increased by only 18 percent.  Africa's trade deficit with China for the quarter reached $29 billion, nearly $10 billion higher than a year earlier.  

The zero-tariff policy announced for Africa by Xi Jinping beginning 1 May 2026 is largely cosmetic and will make little difference in the trade relationship because 95 percent of African exports to China already enter the country duty free.  

How African Countries Can Maximize China's Zero Tariff Policy

 Africa Business published on 13 April 2026 an article titled "China-Africa: The Removal of Tariffs Is Not Just a Trade Opportunity, but a Strategic Test for the Continent" by Cheikh Mbacke Sene.  

Commenting on China's new zero tariff policy for African states, the author suggests three scenarios as to how it may impact the trade relationship.  But to fully benefit from Beijing's policy, African states must invest in industrial transformation, improve their infrastructure, enhance production capacity, comply strictly with international standards, and identify market opportunities that anticipate Chinese demand.  

China Projected to Dominate Africa's Solar Panel Imports

 The Wire, a digital news magazine, posted on 5 April 2026 an article titled "China's Solar Industry Follows the Sun to Africa" by Noah Berman.  

Based on the current trend of Chinese solar panel sales to Africa, China will become the critical supplier of energy infrastructure to Africa by the end of the decade.  There is concern, however, that this may result in dependency on China with Africa becoming a dumping ground for Chinese solar products.

China-Africa Trade Increases, but So Do African Trade Deficits

 The Institute for Security Studies published on 2 April 2026 a paper titled "FOCAC Recycled: Preferential Access, Same Old Problem" by Marvellous Ngundu.  

Since 2000, Africa-China trade has expanded dramatically from less than $10 billion to over $348 billion in 2025.  Yet beneath this growth lies a persistent structural imbalance.  Africa's trade deficit with China has widened from negligible levels in the early 2000s to over $100 billion in 2025.

Beginning on 1 May 2026 China is implementing a zero-tariff policy for all but one African country in an effort to rectify this imbalance.  But the change risks entrenching existing trade patterns in which value addition occurs elsewhere.  As a result, higher trade volumes may not translate into more inclusive or structurally transformative outcomes for African economies.

The core issue is not tariffs, but industrialization.  Africa's trade position will only shift when it exports more manufactured and semi-processed goods.  China's duty-free initiative presents both an opportunity and a test.  It expands market access but highlights the limitations without the capability.

China's Zero Tariffs for Africa Provide Positive Publicity at Little Cost (in French)

 Thierry Pairault posted on 28 March 2026 a working paper titled "Tarif zero: un petit geste qui ne coute presque rien."

This is the first of two analyses Thierry Pairault has posted on the impact of Beijing's decision to allow imports from 53 African countries to enter China duty free beginning 1 May.  He explains this is an inexpensive gesture that will not have much practical impact. The second working paper was reposted on 30 March below.

China's trade surplus with Africa continues to grow.  China exports value-added goods to Africa while Africa exports mostly raw materials and some agricultural products to China.  A small number of African countries account for most of the continent's exports to China.  

China's zero tariff treatment of African imports may benefit some agricultural products such as coffee and tobacco, but it will not change significantly existing China-Africa trade patterns.