China Increases African Agency vis-a-vis the West

 African Arguments posted on 13 August 2026 a commentary titled "The Beijing of It All: Africa's Development Terms Are No Longer Written in Washington or Brussels" by Wanjiku Wanjohi.

Political conditionality associated with Western aid is giving way to a new framework established by China.  China describes its interaction as a partnership based on non-interference and rapid delivery of development projects.  As a result, Africa now has meaningful alternatives and greater negotiating power.

Comment:  While Chinese loans and assistance do not come with the baggage of political conditionality, they do have economic conditionality.  For example, Chinese loans and projects must be implemented by Chinese companies, usually state-owned ones.  

Decline of the US State Department

 Small Wars Journal published on 11 August 2026 a commentary titled "The War of the Pen: What America's State Department Is Ignoring" by Julian McBride.

The author laments the absence of ambassadors at numerous US embassies, the State Department's waning soft power, the rise of middle and regional powers at the expense of the United States, and the increasing influence of China in the Global South.

He believes US diplomatic setbacks are self-inflicted but can be reversed through concerted action and the US position restored in the Global South.  

Kenyan Bank Launches Renminbi Currency Payments with China

 Serrari posted on 4 August 2026 an article titled "Stanbic Bank Kenya Launches RMB Payments Through CIPS" by Montel Kamau.

Stanbic Bank Kenya has introduced direct Renminbi payment processing through China's Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS).  Businesses importing goods or services from China can now settle eligible transactions without routing every payment through longer conventional correspondent-banking chains.  

Comment:  This is one more indication of China's currency making inroads in the banking system of the Global South.  

China's Zero Tariff Policy Seeks to Change African Trade Patterns

 Asia Times published on 27 July 2026 an article titled "China's Zero-tariff Play Aims to Lock in African Loyalty" by Bob Savic.

China's zero-tariff access for 63 countries--53 of them in Africa--is a deliberate geostrategic lever in Beijing's long-term competition with the United States and Europe for influence in the Global South.  It is designed to offer unfettered, predictable, and large-scale access for African exports in contrast to protectionist markets in the United States and Europe.

The zero-tariff policy also positions Africa's growing population as a significant long-term market for Chinese goods and services and helps China to shape the rules of global commerce.

Comment:  While this may be China's goal, it must still deal with the fact that Beijing exports far more to Africa than it imports from Africa, and the initial evidence suggests that the zero-tariff policy is not having a significant impact on this situation.

Russia's Appeal to Southern African States

 South Africa's Institute for Global Dialogue published on 16 March 2026 a commentary titled "Beyond Material: Russia's Appeal to Southern African States" by Philani Mthembu.

Although Russia is not a major economic partner in Africa, Moscow's increased focus on the continent has given southern Africa states greater autonomy and options on the global stage as they pursue their own national interests.  

Is Foreign Investment the Answer for American and Chinese Soft Power Influence in Africa?

Brookings published on 6 May 2026 a study titled "Foreign Investment Is Not Making Friends for China--or the US" by John F. McCauley, University of Maryland, Margaret M. Pearson, John L. Thornton China Center, and Xiaonan Wang, City University of New York - Baruch College. 

Drawing on over 750 Chinese and American foreign direct investment (FDI) projects in 23 African countries, the research challenges the assumption that it generates not only economic returns but also goodwill in the local community.  While proximity to a major power's investment increases its perceived influence in local communities and undermines that of its adversary, it also decreases affinity for the investing power.  

This reputational cost is not unique to China; U.S. investment triggers a strikingly similar backlash.  Unmet expectations around jobs and local economic benefits, heightened perceptions of corruption among local officials, and concerns about external influence erode the soft power dividends that both powers anticipate.  China and the United States must recognize that investing abroad can sabotage goodwill if projects are not constructed with local economic development in mind.   

 Comment: While the study offers a useful cautionary note about the impact of FDI, it is based on a narrow definition of the value of investment.  FDI can have positive effects on the economy that go well beyond the impact on the community in close proximity to the investment project.  FDI can add to a country's GDP, increase tax revenue, and have downstream economic benefits not captured in the nearby community.  While the negative results on reverse model preference identified in the study are revelatory, they are modest and probably skewed by a small number of egregiously flawed investment projects.   

Impact of China's Export Push on the Global South

 The Hinrich Foundation posted on 21 April 2026 an analysis titled "AI's Warning on the Risks of China's Export Push into the Global South."

This analysis was created with the assistance of artificial intelligence (AI) that looked at China's doubling down on exports as an engine for growth and its impact on the global economy.  While Chinese exports to the United States declined significantly in the past year, they have surged to Africa and ASEAN.   

AI predicts that China is transforming from being the world's consumer goods provider to the world's industrial goods provider.  China is providing the industrial backbone for Africa, the world's fastest growing region.  Beijing is ensuring that the next generation of global infrastructure is built on Chinese and not Western standards.  This situation may trigger, however, protectionism in the Global South.  

Iran War Accelerates China's Strategy in Africa

 The Conversation published on 15 April 2026 a commentary titled "China's Africa Strategy Is Shifting and Iran Conflict Will Speed It Up" by Lauren Johnston.

China seeks to bring greater balance to China-Africa trade and industrialization by integrating China and Africa supply chains and economic development.  The war in Iran has shocked the global economy and its energy supply chains.  This is speeding up China's new approach to the Global South, which the author calls the Hunan model.  

Beijing Shows Different Look in Africa Compared to US

 China-Africa Security Radar posted on 2 April 2026 a commentary titled "Beijing Capitalizes on Washington's Aggression" by Paa Kwesi Wolseley Prah.  

China's Vice President Han Zheng visited Kenya, South Africa, and Seychelles in March.  The author argues the visit was timed in the context of Washington's capture of the Venezuelan president and the US/Israeli war against Iran.  

Both developments demonstrated US willingness to deploy military power unilaterally and with little deference to international law.  This juxtaposition of events permitted Han Zheng to underscore to an African audience China's message of South-South solidarity, sovereign equality, and development partnership.   

China Takes Advantage of Declining US Ties with Africa

 South Africa's The Mail & Guardian published on 11 March 2026 an article titled "China Announces Major Push to Strengthen Its Partnership with Africa Amid US Trade Tension" by Brian Sokutu.

Amid strained ties between Africa and the Trump administration, China has announced a new economic package that includes full zero-tariff access for 100 percent of African imports, effective from 1 May.  It has also declared 2026 as "China-Africa Year of People-to-People Exchanges" with some 600 events planned.

Comment:  China is cleverly taking advantage of the downturn in US-Africa relations and especially the decision by the Trump administration to increase tariffs on goods imported from most African countries.  Beijing announced the zero-tariff policy at the beginning of 2026 and the people-to-people exchanges early last year.  These are not particularly new initiatives.  

It should also be noted that China has had a trade surplus with Africa for the past 15 years and the size of that surplus has been growing steadily.  A number of African countries have expressed concern over the size of their trade deficit with China.  China's tariffs have not been the primary obstacle to importing more from Africa.  Africa has to have what China wants and historically, with the exception of raw materials such as critical minerals, that has limited its exports to China.  

Nevertheless, China is able to make an invidious comparison with the current state of US-Africa relations, and at minimal cost.   

China-Africa Relations Will Focus on Digital Silk Road

 Memesita, an independent digital news organization based in New York, posted on 1 February 2026 an article titled "China-Africa Relations: Trade, Investment & the Global South (2026)."

The China-Africa relationship in 2026 will not be about concrete and steel but rather silicon and signals.  A revolution is underway driven by digital infrastructure, fintech innovation, and a burgeoning tech ecosystem that is rapidly reshaping the economic and political landscape of the Global South.

China Counters Western Alliances in Global South

 Modern Diplomacy published on 31 January 2026 a commentary titled "How China Courts the Global South to Counter U.S. Alliances" by Nadia Helmy, Beni Suef University in Egypt. 

China is countering Western alliances by drawing on its soft power and economic engagement through the Belt and Road Initiative, rapid military modernization, the formation of counter alliances such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, and "gray zone" tactics.  China's goal is to shape a multipolar world order.  

China Offers Security Alternative to US in Africa and Arab World

 Modern Diplomacy published on 21 January 2026 a commentary titled "China Recalibrates Military Outreach, Strengthening Officer Training for Africa and the Arab States" by Nadia Helmy, Beni Suef University in Egypt.

The People's Liberation Army is working to shape the loyalties of future military elites in Africa and the Middle East by emphasizing military training to counter the role of the United States.  Its military base in Djibouti is an important part of this effort.

China and Africa's Donkey Dilemma

 The Hinrich Foundation published on 20 January 2026 an article titled "Africa's Donkey Trade Moratorium Shapes China's Approach on Global South" by Lauren Johnston.

In 2024, the African Union halted exports to China of African donkey skins, which provide collagen used to manufacture a Chinese traditional medicine known as ejiao.  Chinese demand for African donkey hides reached 4 to 6 million a year, decimating the donkey population on the continent.  

China has responded by increasing internal donkey production, developing other sources outside Africa, and improving the supply chain for producing the traditional Chinese medicine.  

China's Space Engagement with Africa

 The Center for Strategic and International Studies published on 15 January 2026 a report titled "In China's Orbit: Beijing's Space Diplomacy in the Global South" by Matthew P. Funaiole, Brian Hart, and Aidan Powers-Riggs.

China is engaging in space cooperation across the Global South and Africa has emerged as a focal point of its efforts, especially Egypt, Ethiopia, and Namibia.  This study provides satellite photography to document China's facilities in all three countries.  

China's Long Game in Africa

 Kenya's The Star published on 13 January 2026 an article titled "(Understanding China) Wang Yi's Africa Visit and China's Long Game in a Fractured World" by Stephen Ndegwa.  

The author argues that Africa is not just China's partner for growth but a "co-architect of a new global narrative."  Increasingly, the relationship is rooted in "strategic coherence, institutional cooperation and global multilateral engagement."

Comment:  This highly favorable analysis of the China-Africa relationship conveniently ignores Africa's large and continuing trade deficit with China and the mercantilist policy whereby China sells mostly value-added goods to Africa while importing almost entirely raw materials from Africa.

China's Foreign Aid Policy

 The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute published in January 2026 a study titled "China and the Changing International Development Landscape" by Jingdong Yuan.  

The current level of China's overseas development assistance makes it impossible for Beijing to fill the gap left by the dismantlement of the US Agency for International Development.  Beijing is more willing to promote its development aid model of infrastructure-driven and trade-related growth.

Why China Needs Africa

 Azerbaijan's News.az published on 31 December 2025 an article titled "Why China Needs Africa."

For Beijing, Africa has become a strategic key to the future global order.  China needs the critical minerals found in Africa and its markets to sell its goods.  Africa is also a massive testing ground for Chinese technology, especially digital products.  China wants to shape Africa, which is young, resource-rich, globally connected through corridors built by Beijing, and less dependent on Western institutions.  China is buying time and influence in Africa.  

Resetting US-China Competition in Africa

The National Interest published on 19 December 2025 an article titled "How to Reset US-China Competition in Africa" by Dan M. Ford and Wenjing Wang, both at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft. 

The authors argue that the United States can compete more effectively with Chinese engagement in Africa if it sheds its security-focused, all-or-nothing mindset.  

Trump Administration Opposes South African G-20 Membership; China Supports It

 The Citizen published on 5 December 2025 an article titled "China Stands with South Africa as Trump Threatens G-20 Exclusion" by Zaghrah.  

President Trump has threatened to exclude South Africa from next year's G-20 Summit in Miami.  China has stepped in to support South Africa's inclusion.  China's backing of South Africa, the only African member of the G-20, is both strategic and symbolic.