Russia-South Africa Relations: It's Complicated

 The South African Institute of International Affairs recently posted a 16-minute podcast titled "South Africa and Russia: It's Complicated."

The Russia-China relationship generates uncomfortable headlines today.  It is based on the strong anti-apartheid position of the Soviet Union.  In addition, Vladimir Putin and former South African President Jacob Zuma solidified the ties.

Russia's invasion of Georgia, Crimea, and Ukraine complicated the relationship.  South Africa fell back on a policy of non-alignment.  By 2022, there was confusion in Pretoria concerning policy towards Russia.

Today, South Africa-Russia trade is negligible and Russian investment in the country is modest.  South Africa and Russia, both members of BRICS, agree on the need to revise the world order but not much else.  

The Kremlin's Long Game in Africa

 The Hudson Institute published on 4 July 2026 an analysis titled "The Kremlin's Long Game in Africa" by Joshua Meservey.

The analysis concludes that the Kremlin seeks to extract outsized benefits from Africa with the limited means it can deploy.  The nature of this engagement will change only when there is meaningful political transformation in Russia.

Odd Timing of Tanzanian President's Visit to Russia

 Africa-Press published on 3 June 2026 an article titled "Tanzania: Historic Russia Visit Amid Tensions."

Tanzanian President Samia Suluhu Hassan made an official visit to Russia 3-5 June, the first visit by a Tanzanian leader in over five decades.  The visit takes place following disputed elections in Tanzania in October 2025, deteriorating relations with the West, and during Russia's war with Ukraine.

A June 2 article in Tanzania's Taufa Daily titled "10 Reasons President Samia's Russia Visit Is a Major Win for Tanzania" goes to considerable lengths to justify the timing of the visit.

Russia's Appeal to Southern African States

 South Africa's Institute for Global Dialogue published on 16 March 2026 a commentary titled "Beyond Material: Russia's Appeal to Southern African States" by Philani Mthembu.

Although Russia is not a major economic partner in Africa, Moscow's increased focus on the continent has given southern Africa states greater autonomy and options on the global stage as they pursue their own national interests.  

China and Russia Agree to Seek New World Order

 The Raisina Hills, an independent digital news platform based in India, published on 20 May 2026 an article titled "Russia-China Challenge Western-led System in Joint Declaration."

The article assesses the joint declaration agreed to by China and Russia released on 20 May during Vladimir Putin's visit with Xi Jinping in Beijing.  The article concludes that "the declaration suggests the Russia-China partnership is evolving beyond tactical cooperation into a broader attempt to shape the ideological architecture of a future world order."

How Russia Lures Africans to Fight in Ukraine

 The New York Times published on 4 May 2026 an article titled "'The Death Zone': How Russia Is Luring Africans to Ukraine" by Matthew Mpoke Bigg, John Eligon, and Zimasa Matiwane.

An estimated 1,000 Kenyans went to Russia and ended up in the war against Ukraine.  Only 30 have returned to Kenya alive.  In addition, South Africa, Tanzania, Zambia, Nigeria, Ghana, Togo, Botswana, Mali, and Cameroon have reported men being falsely recruited into the Russian army.  

Mali on the Edge; Russian Forces Retreat

 The Washington Post published on 30 April 2026 an article titled "Mali's Junta Asked Russians to Bring Order. Militants Just Stormed In" by Rachel Chason.

Mali's military junta turned to Russia to help in quelling an Islamist insurgency.  But in the five years since the arrival of Russian mercenaries with the Wagner Group and subsequently with the Africa Corps, the militants have gained strength, and Mali is now teetering on the edge of collapse.

Jihadist Attacks Threaten Russian Influence in Mali

 Reuters published on 29 April 2026 an article titled "Mali Turmoil Threatens Russian Push for Influence and Mineral Wealth in Africa" by Andrew Osborn and Anna Peverieri.

A series of reversals suffered by Mali's Moscow-backed military government has dented Russia's image and threatens its strategic and economic interests in Africa.  Mali's military junta's future is now in jeopardy and Russia's military presence in Mali is also on the line.  

Russia's Recruitment Campaign in Africa for Mercenaries

 Global Issues posted on 20 April 2026 an article titled "Russia's African Cannon Fodder" by Andrew Firmin.  

The article reviews Russia's program to recruit Africans, often based on disinformation, to fight for Moscow in its war with Ukraine.  The top African countries for providing mercenaries to fight in Ukraine are Egypt, Cameroon, and Ghana.  

Russia Props Up Madagascar's New Military Government

 Bloomberg published on 8 April 2026 an article titled "Russia Steps Up Its Courtship of Fragile African States" by Antony Squazzin.  

Russia sent soldiers and weapons to prop up the military government that seized power in Madagascar last October.  

Russian Trade and Investment Lags in Africa

 The Intel Drop posted on 31 March 2026 an article titled "Russia-Africa Summit: Russia's New Chapter on Africa Trade and Economic Collaboration" by Kester Kenn Klomegah.

If Russia intends to be a major player in Africa, it must open Russia to imports from Africa and increase significantly Russian foreign direct investment in the continent.  Otherwise, it will increasingly fall behind the economic engagement efforts of China, the United States, and India.  

Russia's Security Program in Africa after the Wagner Group

 The South African Institute of International Affairs published in February 2026 a study titled "Back to the Shadows: Russia's African Security Engagements Since Prigozhin" by Ivan U. Klyszcz, Centre for Defence and Security in Tallinn, Estonia.  

Russia continues to deploy military personnel and conduct information operations to shape regional politics in Africa.  Since 2023, Moscow has taken tighter control, with Kremlin-linked figures, state agencies, and federal funding driving these efforts.  Russian activities reflect the Kremlin's top foreign policy priorities but are constrained by competing demands, especially the war in Ukraine.

South Africa Convinces Russia to Return Its Nationals Duped into Fighting in Ukraine

 Aljazeera published on 5 March 2026 an article titled "'Our Children Were Sold Off': The South Africans Sent to Fight Russia's War" by Chris Makhaye.  

Russia recruited South Africans to become VIP bodyguards who were then given brief military training and conscripted by a paramilitary group to fight in Ukraine.  Most of the South Africans became cannon fodder on the Russian front lines. An appeal by South Africa's president to Vladimir Putin managed to get their return to their families.   

African Perceptions of China, US and Russia

 Afro Barometer posted on 27 February 2026 a survey titled "Popular Perceptions of Russia Lag Even as Its Influence grows Across Africa" by Aubrey Ghambi, Alfred Kwadzo, and Carolyn Logan.  

While most of the analysis is about the position of Russia in Africa, this survey of 38 African countries found that China received the best marks on positive influence (62 percent).  The United States has fallen behind at 52 percent positive rating, the European Union at 50 percent, India 39 percent, and Russia 36 percent.  The negative perceptions were more similar with China (17 percent), US (20 percent), EU (17 percent), India (20 percent), and Russia (23 percent).  

Putin to Attend Third Russia-Africa Summit

 African Initiative published on 27 January 2026 an article titled "Putin to Take Part in Third Russia-Africa Summit in 2026--Ambassador" by Evgeniya Mylnikova.  

Russian President Vladimir Putin will attend the Third Russia-Africa Summit, which will take place at a yet to be named country in Africa during 2026.  

Will Russian Mercenaries Protect Madagascar's Interim President?

 El Pais published on 24 January 2026 an article titled "Russian Africa Corps Mercenaries Incorporate Madagascar into Their Expansion Across the Continent" by Jose Naranjo.

A 40-member Russian delegation led by the head of the Africa Corps militia met in late December with Madagascar's interim president and offered personal protection to the Malagasy leader as the Africa Corps has done in the Central African Republic, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Libya, and Equatorial Guinea.  

The Prospects and Limitations of Russia's Africa Corps

 The Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey published in September 2025 a study titled "Putin's New Frontier: The Prospects and Limitations of Africa Corps" by Hanna Notte.

The study chronicles the emergence of the Africa Corps and assesses its activities since the summer of 2023 in relevant African states.  It shows how the Africa Corps consolidated its position in Libya and Mali, where the Wagner Group had a legacy presence on the ground; how it embraced new opportunities in Burkina Faso, Niger, and Equatorial Guinea; in which countries there are indications that the Africa Corps might attempt to make inroads in the future; and where the Wagner Group continues to operate as Wagner--in the Central African Republic.  

Russia Losing Influence in Africa

 The Wall Street Journal published on 29 September 2025 an article titled "Russia's Ambitious Plans in Africa Are Unraveling" by Benoit Faucon and Nicholas Bariyo.

Russian influence is receding in Sudan, Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso following the collapse of the mercenary Wagner Group and its replacement with the Africa Corps under Moscow's Ministry of Defense.  

China's Assertive Global Governance Initiative

The Diplomat published on 23 September 2025 a commentary titled "2025 Xiangshan Forum: China Enters a New Era of Assertive Global Governance" by Sookyeon Lee, lieutenant colonel in the Republic of Korea Marine Corps and associate professor at the Korea National Defense University.  

The 12th Beijing Xiangshan Forum in September 2025 represented a watershed moment in China's foreign policy.  The author, who attended the forum in 2024 and 2025, concluded this year's session showcased an emboldened China ready to present itself as the leader of an alternative global order.  The forum also tracked closely the recent announcement of China's Global Governance Initiative, a framework for reforming the current Western-led international system. 

A Comprehensive Report on Russia's Africa Corps

 The Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey published in August 2025 a study titled "Putin's New Frontier: The Prospects and Limitations of Africa Corps" by Hanna Notte. 

This timely and well researched study concludes that Russia's Africa Corps is a bureaucratic restructuring and rebranding of the Wagner Goup, which only continues to function in the Central African Republic.  It employs many former Wagner mercenary fighters and has taken control of its recruitment infrastructure. 

The Africa Corps is tethered closer to the Russian military's chain of command. It prioritizes training and routine security assistance rather than the high-risk missions of the Wagner Group.  It apparently relies on funding from Russia's state budget.  The Africa Corps might face future competition from countries such as Turkey, Iran, and China.