Russia's Security Program in Africa after the Wagner Group

 The South African Institute of International Affairs published in February 2026 a study titled "Back to the Shadows: Russia's African Security Engagements Since Prigozhin" by Ivan U. Klyszcz, Centre for Defence and Security in Tallinn, Estonia.  

Russia continues to deploy military personnel and conduct information operations to shape regional politics in Africa.  Since 2023, Moscow has taken tighter control, with Kremlin-linked figures, state agencies, and federal funding driving these efforts.  Russian activities reflect the Kremlin's top foreign policy priorities but are constrained by competing demands, especially the war in Ukraine.

The Prospects and Limitations of Russia's Africa Corps

 The Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey published in September 2025 a study titled "Putin's New Frontier: The Prospects and Limitations of Africa Corps" by Hanna Notte.

The study chronicles the emergence of the Africa Corps and assesses its activities since the summer of 2023 in relevant African states.  It shows how the Africa Corps consolidated its position in Libya and Mali, where the Wagner Group had a legacy presence on the ground; how it embraced new opportunities in Burkina Faso, Niger, and Equatorial Guinea; in which countries there are indications that the Africa Corps might attempt to make inroads in the future; and where the Wagner Group continues to operate as Wagner--in the Central African Republic.  

Russia's Africa Corps Taking Over from Wagner Group

 Foreign Policy published on 3 September 2025 an article titled "Prigozhin's Ghost Haunts Africa Corps" by Christopher Faulkner, US Naval War College.

The Central Africa Republic (CAR) stands as the sole remaining foothold of the Wagner Group.  Its successor, the Africa Corps, is replacing it, but so far it has served as little more than a praetorian guard for autocrats seeking regime survival and deeper relations with Russia. Moscow has even asked the CAR to cut ties with the Wagner Group and sign a contract with the Africa Corps, which will pose serious challenges for Russia's policy on the continent.

An Analysis of the Business Model of Russia's Wagner Group

 The Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies published on 6 February 2025 a study titled "Wagner's Business Model in Syria and Africa: Profit and Patronage" by Olivia Allison, Nick Connon, Antonio Giustozzi, and James Pascall.  

The paper examines whether the Wagner Group was profitable under its founder Yevgeny Prigozhin, what its business model meant for Russia and Russia's geopolitical rivals in the recent past, and what the model could mean for the future.  It draws primarily on three case studies: Syria, the Central African Republic, and Mali.  

It concludes that Wagner Group ventures in Africa and the Middle East did not contribute significantly to Russia's coffers, but that does not appear to have been the purpose.  Rather, they were intended to sustain Russia's foreign policy initiatives.

Prigozhin's death raised serious questions about the sustainability of the Wagner business model.  With Prigozhin gone and given the lack of appetite for his neocolonial approach among governments that might make use of Wagner's style of operations, a more feasible approach for achieving substantial profits in the future would be a focus on smuggling. 

Evaluation of Russia's Wagner Group in Mali, CAR, Mozambique and Syria

 The Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies published in January 2025 an analysis titled "Did Wagner Succeed in the Eyes of Its African and Middle Eastern Clients?" by Antonio Giustozzi, Joana de Deus Pereira, and David Lewis.  

This Whitehall Report looks at the Wagner Group from the perspective of its clients in four case studies: Mali, Central African Republic, Mozambique, and Syria.  In terms of support services such as training, advising and maintenance, Wagner's performance was rather undistinguished in the view of its clients.  After the mutiny in 2023, most of Wagner's support services contracts were taken over without much trouble by the Russian Ministry of Defense.  

With regard to Wagner's provision of ready-to-deploy combat units, as of 2024 it remained one of few entities willing to offer this service, as well as the most willing to deploy in very challenging environments.  Attempts by the Russian Ministry of Defense to replace Wagner in such tasks following the mutiny were met with stubborn resistance by the Malian and CAR governments.  The Syrian government, by contrast, was happy to see Wagner leave in 2023.  In Mozambique, it was Wagner's leader Yevgeny Prigozhin who decided to bail out.  

Overall, while Wagner was fairly successful in providing ready-to-deploy small armies in challenging environments, it was clearly exposed to the risk of ending up seriously embattled.  

Is the Wagner Group a Model for Mercenary Organizations?

 Stimson published on 25 October 2024 a commentary titled "Is Wagner a Model for Other Mercenary Groups?" by Brian Castner.  

Russia's mercenary Wagner Group gained much of its notoriety through its employment in African conflicts.  Wagner's strengths were its ability to recruit in Russia from military veterans and the prison population and to accomplish multiple lines of effort in a security-deficient space.  Wagner was both a military force and a business organization.  

Today, Wagner has split into multiple smaller organizations.  There are, however, situations where Wagner-like groups can thrive.  

Do Chinese Really Want Wagner Group Type Security to Protect Their Interests?

 Foreign Policy published on 21 October 2024 a commentary titled "Prigozhin's Ghost Lives on in China" by Alessandro Arduino.

Judging by social media comments, China's leading security pundits are enamored by Russian Wagner Group's bravado and believe China's approach to the protection of Chinese interests is too passive.  They see Wagner as the model for Chinese private security companies protecting projects across the globe in high-risk areas.   

Russia's Wagner Group Lives in Africa

 War on the Rocks published on 9 October 2024 a commentary titled "After Prigozhin, the Wagner Group's Enduring Impact" by Jack Margolin.  

The current iteration of the Wagner Group continues both military and commercial operations in Mali and the Central African Republic in close coordination with Russian security services.  Russia allows the Wagner Group to survive.  At the same time, there is no unified Russian plan for Africa.

Future of Russia's Wagner Group in Africa

 The Russia Program at George Washington University published in September 2024 a carefully researched study titled "After Prigozhin Does Wagner Group Have a Future?" by Antonio Giustozzi and David Lewis, Royal United Services Institute.

Following the assassination of Yevgeniy Prigozhin, his son Pavel, has been working to establish the Wagner business on more independent footing.  Th Russian government has accepted a compromise in the case of Mali and the Central African Republic and included the Wagner Group in its revised contracts.  Wagner proved irreplaceable as far as engaging in combat was concerned.  These African regimes showed a clear preference for trusting regime security to Wagner.  

After some months attempting to figure out how to move on from Wagner, the Russian Ministry of Defense accepted that there was no real alternative to Wagner in Mali and the CAR and that having Wagner take on the most controversial jobs might continue to serve Moscow's interests.  Pavel Prigozhin appears to have been exploring options for operating independently of the Ministry of Defense but, in the end, might not need to separate completely from it.

Russia's Wagner Group Still Active in Mali

 The Royal United Service Institute for Defence and Security Studies posted on 27 March 2024 a commentary titled "A Mixed Picture: How Mali Views the Wagner Group" by Antonio Giustozzi.

The Wagner Group continues to operate in Mali in spite of the death of its leader Yevgeny Prigozhin in Russia.  The Wagner Group has done little to defeat jihadi groups in Mali and may even have presided over a deterioration in the security situation.  On the other hand, it has kept the military regime in power.  

Russia's Unconventional Warfare in Africa

 The Royal United Services Institute published in February 2024 a study titled "The Threat from Russia's Unconventional Warfare Beyond Ukraine, 2022-2024" by Jack Watling, Oleksandr V. Danylyuk, and Nick Reynolds.  

This is a detailed analysis of the Wagner Group, now known in Africa as the Africa Corps.  Most of the financing and enablement of the Wagner Group always came directly from the Russian state.  It evolved in response to GRU (Main Directorate of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation) requirements.  

It was an arm of Russia's Africa strategy to displace Western interests, gain control over critical resources, and reduce Russia's own vulnerability to sanctions.  In Africa, the Wagner Group operated as a colonial project to gain control over African governments and exploit the continent's natural resources.  Beyond Africa, the study concluded that Russia is using unconventional methods to expand its influence, evade containment, and destabilize and disrupt its adversaries.  

The Future of Russia's Africa Corps

 The Conversation published on 14 February 2024 a commentary titled "Wagner Group Is Now Africa Corps.  What This Means for Russia's Operation on the Continent" by Alessandro Arduino, Kings College London.

The Wagner Group is now known as the Africa Corps and consists of about 5,000 operatives on the continent.  The author suggests it could take the following paths:

--It gets deployed by Moscow to fight in conflicts meeting Russia's geopolitical ends.

--It morphs into paramilitary units under the guise of Russian foreign military intelligence agencies.

--It splinters into factions, acting as heavily armed personnel guards for local warlords.  

How Russia's Africa Corps Is Replacing the Wagner Group

 Foreign Policy published on 7 February 2024 an analysis titled "Is Africa Corps a Rebranded Wagner Group?" by John A. Lechner and Sergey Eledinov.  

Africa Corps is the semiofficial name for a paramilitary structure created by the Russian ministry of defense.  It is taking over the operations in Africa of the Wagner Group and marks a new phase in Russia's export of security to Africa.  With this change, Russia's security interventions on the continent are emerging out of the shadows of private initiative and into the limelight of an official state project.  The restructuring is playing out in different ways in those countries where the Wagner Group operated.  

Russia Ramps Up Africa Corps, Successor of the Wagner Group

 Ukraine's Ukrainska Pravda published on 30 January 2024 an article titled "Russia Creates New Mercenary Army in Africa, Replacing Wagner Group, Says Bloomberg" by Stanislav Pohorilov.  

Russia plans to create expeditionary forces called the Africa Corps consisting of 20,000 mercenaries who will replace the Wagner Group.  They will deploy to at least 5 countries--Burkina Faso, Libya, Mali, Central African Republic, and Niger--and be under the control of Russia's ministry of defense.  

Russia's Wagner Group Shifting to State Control

 Foreign Policy published on 27 December 2023 an article titled "Russia Is Divvying Up Prigozhin's Empire Among Putin's Cronies" by Lucian Stiano-Daniels, Colgate University. 

The author argues that former Wagner Group leader Yevgeniy Prigozhin may have been killed not just as punishment for treason but also to bring the organization's lucrative African operations under direct state control.  Russia's Defense Ministry is expected to take over Wagner Group operations in Africa.  

Russia Takes Control of Wagner Group Operation in Central African Republic

 Radio Free Europe published on 7 December 2023 an article titled "With Wagner in Disarray, A Russian Diplomat with Spy Links Surfaces in the Central African Republic" by Mark Krutov, Sergei Dobrynin, and Maja Zivanovic.  

A former Kremlin envoy to the European Union whom European diplomats link to Russian intelligence has been dispatched to the Central African Republic to oversee coordination between the Wagner mercenary group and local security forces.  

Is There Opening for West in Wagner Group's Central African Republic?

 The New York Times published on 26 November 2023 an article titled "Battle for Influence Rages in Heart of Wagner's Operations in Africa" by Elian Peltier.

The death of Yevgeny Prigozhin, leader of the mercenary Wagner Group, in August has raised doubts about the Russian Defense Ministry's ability to maintain Wagner operations.  There is a window of opportunity for countries like the United States and France to counter Russian influence there.  

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Post-Prigozhin Russia in Africa

 The Center for Strategic and International Studies published on 20 September 2023 an analysis titled "Post-Prigozhin Russia in Africa: Regaining or Losing Control?" by Mathieu Droin and Tina Dolbaia. 

Since the death of Wagner Group leader Yevgeniy Prigozhin, Russia's appeal as a security guarantor and military partner in Africa has so far remained intact.  However, increasing challenges facing Russia might negatively impact this situation.  The future of the Wagner Group remains murky.   

Are Africans Losing Confidence in the Mercenary Wagner Group?

 Foreign Policy published on 25 September 2023 an article titled "Wagner's African Hosts Regret Letting Them In" by Jack Detsch.  

Drawing on U.S. Defense Department sources, the author says African countries are reporting they don't want to be dependent on the Wagner Group for security and are encountering problems with their presence.  The Khalifa Haftar government in eastern Libya has apparently been especially critical of the Wagner Group.  

Elusive Figure Behind the Wagner Group in Africa

The Wall Street Journal published on 21 September 2023 an article titled "The Elusive Figure Running Wagner's Embattled Empire of Gold and Diamonds" by Benoit Faucon and Gabriele Steinhauser.   

French educated and multi-lingual Dmitry Sytii is likely to play a key role in running the Wagner Group's multibillion dollar African empire of mercenaries, gold, lumber, and diamonds.