Nigeria Turns to French and Israeli Satellite Companies to Replace Chinese Company

 Business Insider Africa published on 24 August 2026 an article titled "After $11.4 Million China Satellite Debt Dispute, Nigeria Turns to Israeli, French Firms for Next-generation Satellites" by Solomon Ekanem.

Nigeria is turning to Israeli and French satellite manufacturers for its next-generation communications infrastructure, months after a dispute with China Great Wall Industry Corporation (CGWIC) exposed the country's dependence on China for critical satellite operations.  The decision follows a dispute with CGWIC, which threatened to suspend services over an $11.44 million debt.  

The Decline of France in Africa's Sahel and Rise of China

 The Foreign Policy Research Institute published on 29 July 2026 an article titled "How France's Fall Signals China's Rise in the Sahel" by Raghvendra Kumar.

China has seized on the decline of French and Western influence in Africa's Sahel to embed itself into the region's political, economic, and security structures.  The article pays particular attention to China's role in Burkina Faso.  

Africa Youth Survey: Perceptions of China and US

 The Ichikowitz Family Foundation just published its massive African Youth Survey 2026.  It held face-to-face interviews with about 5,000 Africans aged 18-24 from 16 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa.  

It covers many issues, but the focus here is perceptions of China and the United States.  African youth see China (79 percent) and the United States (81 percent) as the most influential foreign actors, although China's influence is seen as somewhat more positive.

The survey looked at the influence of the US, China, Brazil, EU, UK, Germany, France, India, and Russia.  The only country whose influence was seen as less positive than the United States (85 percent) was Russia (83 percent).  

About 3 in 5 youth are optimistic about Africa's future during the Trump administration, especially on military support and security.  Just under half believe the closure of USAID will negatively impact their country, with healthcare and disease prevention seen as the areas most affected.  

China and India are increasingly viewed as more favorable partners than the United States, a sentiment shaped in part by the return of the Trump administration.  

Is the West Losing Out in the Seychelles?

 The Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies published on 23 July 2026 an analysis titled "Losing Control of the West's Longstanding Interests in Seychelles" by Wojciech Pawlus.

The author suggests that the West is losing out in the democratic Indian Ocean archipelago of Seychelles to India, China, Russia, and the Gulf States.  He believes the current government is becoming more autocratic and urges Washington, Brussels, London, and Paris to reach out before it is too late.

Protecting Cable Laying Ships in Gulf of Aden and Off Somalia

 List 25 published on 11 July 2026 an analysis titled "Navies Protect Cable Ships from Pirate Skiffs: The Full Story" by Anant Gupta.

Fiber-optic cable laying ships in the Gulf of Aden, Gulf of Guinea, and waters off Somalia are especially vulnerable to pirate attacks.  This analysis explains why they are vulnerable and efforts to protect them as they perform their vital functions.

Video Critical of Russia's Engagement in Mali

 Warfronts posted on 6 July 2026 a 14-minute video titled "This Country Trusted Russia--Then It All Fell Apart" with Simon Whistler.

This is a highly critical account of Russia's Wagner Group and Africa Corps engagement with the Mali military in an effort to prop up the military government.  

Ethiopia Signs Debt Deal with Private Lenders

 Foreign Policy published on 1 July 2026 an article titled "What to Know About Ethiopia's Debt Breakthrough" by Nosmot Gbadamosi.

A year ago, Ethiopia reached a final agreement on restructuring $8.4 billion of bilateral loans, with $3.5 billion in debt relief.  But a deal on the $1 billion bond held by private lenders proved to be more elusive.  Under a recent deal, the bondholders have agreed to reduce the $1 billion debt to $880 million, repaid in installments by 2029.

The Sino-Moroccan Rapprochement

 The Torino World Affairs Institute published in 2026 a study titled "The Sino-Moroccan Rapprochement: An Analysis of Geoeconomic Convergence, Diplomatic Calibration and Media Narratives in a Changing Maghreb" by Bianca Pasquier and Imane Ezzehouany, edited by Amanda Chen and Leonardo Bruni.  

The study concludes that by deepening its engagement with China, Morocco is reengineering its agency and room for maneuver while maintaining its traditional ties with the United States and Europe.  China's economic presence in the Kingdom, albeit still limited compared to European and Gulf partners in overall investment terms, has rapidly expanded in industrial sectors critical for the green transition and the restructuring of global value chains.  

Ethiopia Expels French Journalist

 The Committee to Protect Journalists posted on 12 June 2026 a press release titled "Ethiopia Expels French Journalist Augustine Passilly after Reporting Trip to Tigray."

Following a reporting trip to Ethiopia's Tigray Region, Ethiopian authorities expelled Augustine Passilly, La Croix newspaper's Ethiopia correspondent since September 2023.  

Djibouti's Strategic Location in the Red Sea Region

 The International Crisis Group posted on 4 June 2026 a 26-minute podcast titled "Tiny Djibouti and Its Prime Real Estate" with Alan Boswell and Samson Abebe Bezabeh, University of Hong Kong.  

They discuss Djibouti's role as a "garrison state," how it benefits from hosting foreign military bases, and why its strategic position may be changing as Ethiopia seeks alternative sea access.

Mali on the Edge; Russian Forces Retreat

 The Washington Post published on 30 April 2026 an article titled "Mali's Junta Asked Russians to Bring Order. Militants Just Stormed In" by Rachel Chason.

Mali's military junta turned to Russia to help in quelling an Islamist insurgency.  But in the five years since the arrival of Russian mercenaries with the Wagner Group and subsequently with the Africa Corps, the militants have gained strength, and Mali is now teetering on the edge of collapse.

Jihadist Attacks Threaten Russian Influence in Mali

 Reuters published on 29 April 2026 an article titled "Mali Turmoil Threatens Russian Push for Influence and Mineral Wealth in Africa" by Andrew Osborn and Anna Peverieri.

A series of reversals suffered by Mali's Moscow-backed military government has dented Russia's image and threatens its strategic and economic interests in Africa.  Mali's military junta's future is now in jeopardy and Russia's military presence in Mali is also on the line.  

US Competes More Directly with Russia in Africa

 AEIs Critical Threats Africa File published on 21 April 2026 an article titled "US Competes with Russia and Others as It Engages African Autocrats" by Liam Karr, Yale Ford, and Zoe Sommer.  

The Trump administration has put the United States in more direct competition with Russia in Africa, especially in states that have come under military control.  The US is primarily pursuing security-related interests and exploring opportunities for cooperation on critical minerals.  

Chinese Gay Men in Africa

 Global China Pulse published on 20 April 2026 an article titled "Queering Chinese in Africa: The Unintended Sexual Migration of Chinese Gay Men" by Cai Chen, Universite libre de Bruxelles.

In an unusual piece of research, the author examines the migration trajectories, motivations, and experiences of three self-identified gay Chinese men who have lived in one or more African country.  

Russia Props Up Madagascar's New Military Government

 Bloomberg published on 8 April 2026 an article titled "Russia Steps Up Its Courtship of Fragile African States" by Antony Squazzin.  

Russia sent soldiers and weapons to prop up the military government that seized power in Madagascar last October.  

Why Russia is Losing Africa's Sahel

 Foreign Affairs published on 25 March 2026 an article titled "Why Russia Is Losing the Sahel" by Frederic Wehrey and Andrew S. Weiss, both at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

As Russia confronts shortcomings in its own capacity and the complexities of an environment it never fully understood, its expansion into the Sahel is on the verge of stalling, if not unraveling entirely.  Moscow's initiatives should serve as a cautionary tale for other African states contemplating whether to accept Russian security assistance.  This is also an opportunity for the United States to return.  

US, China, and Russia Are Largest Major Arms Suppliers for Africa

 The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute published in March 2026 its "Trends in International Arms Transfers, 2025" by Mathew George, Katarina Djokic, Zain Hussain, Pieter D. Wezeman, and Siemon T. Wezeman.  

During the period 2021-2025, the largest supplier of major weapons to all of Africa was the United States (19 percent), followed by China (17 percent), and Russia (15 percent).  Nearly all of the American weapons went to Morocco and Egypt.  These percentages do not include small arms and light weapons, which would drive up percentages for China and Russia.

The largest supplier of major weapons to sub-Saharan Africa during this period was China (22 percent), Russia (12 percent), and Turkiye (11 percent).  The three countries receiving the most major weapons were Nigeria (16 percent), Senegal (9 percent), and Mali (8 percent). 

Guinea: China and the US Compete

 The Atlantic Council published on 24 February 2026 a commentary titled "In Guinea, the US Has a Rare Opportunity to Gain an Edge Over China" by Rose Keravouri and Maureen Farrell.

Recognizing the risks of overreliance on a single external partner and frustrated with Chinese firms' opacity and non-compliance with local requirements, its leadership has signaled a willingness to push back against China's mining domination.

The Trump administration invited President Mamady Doumbouya to Washington in early February and is encouraging the American private sector to invest in mining opportunities in Guinea.  The US is also exploring security cooperation with Guinea, which now offers a good opportunity for increased engagement with the United States.

China Gains Military Equipment Market Access in Africa

 The South China Morning Post published on 15 February 2026 an article titled "How a 'Military Vacuum' in West and Central Africa Opened New Markets for China" by Jevans Nyabiage.  

As France retreats from parts of Africa and Russia is preoccupied with its war against Ukraine, Chinese companies have stepped up their arms transfers and military training.  China's equipment is affordable and comes without conditions.  

Maritime Multilateralism in the Indian Ocean

 The Diplomat published on 16 January 2026 an analysis titled "The New Age of Maritime Multilateralism in the Indian Ocean" by Gayathry Gopal, KCC Institute of Law, Greater Noida.  

The Indian Ocean is not dominated by a single power but by a multitude of actors of varying capabilities and interests, thereby making the emerging order not only polycentric but also highly fragile.  India is the resident and traditional security provider.  The United States has a strong presence in the Indian Ocean.  

No actor, however, matches China in the scale and pace of its expansion.  It now has embassies in all Indian Ocean littoral states, participates in all regional organizations, has invested in some 17 ports around the rim of the Indian Ocean, and has a permanent military base in Djibouti.

Increasingly, smaller states are engaging in the region.  This interplay of great power competition and small states' quest for influence has produced a polycentric security order that is dynamic and structurally fragmented.