Ethiopia: Is Tigray Following the Eritrean Example?

 Ethiopia Insight published on 10 August 2026 a commentary titled "The Eritrea Script Exposes Ethiopia's Unity Farce" by Asfaw Gedamu, independent writer.

This is a critique of the National Dialogue process now underway in Ethiopia, and especially the absence of Tigray from the Dialogue.  The author discusses the increasing distance between Tigray and the rest of Ethiopia and draws parallels with Eritrean independence.  He concludes that the argument for Tigray remaining within the federation is becoming harder to sustain.   

Ethiopia: Review of Fighting in Western Tigray

 AEIs Critical Threats Africa File posted on 6 August 2026 an article titled "Tigray on the Precipice" by Michael DeAngelo and Liam Karr.

The Tigray People's Liberation Front and the Ethiopian National Defense Forces engaged in western Tigray on 1 August, each accusing the other of initiating the conflict.  The battle ended quickly but tension remains high in the region.  

Ethiopians Flee Western Tigray into Sudan

 Radio France Internationale posted on 3 August 2026 an article titled "Hundreds Flee Ethiopia to War-torn Sudan Following New Fighting in Tigray."

Hundreds of Ethiopians fled to Sudan following the outbreak of conflict on 1 August between federal government troops and the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) in western Tigray region.  They joined thousands of Ethiopian refugees inside Sudan from the 2020-2022 war between the Ethiopian army and the TPLF.

Ethiopia: Amhara Nationalists and National Dialogue

 Ethiopia Insight published on 27 July 2026 a commentary titled "Amhara Nationalism Faces Historic Choice in National Dialogue" by Henok Ambachew, a pseudonym for a former lecturer at Bahir Dar University.

Ethiopia's ruling Prosperity Party has replaced the EPRDF coalition model with a single national party, which the author says is based on a different organizing principle called "demographic majoritarianism."

The Prosperity Party increasingly reflects the numerical weight of Ethiopia's population.  The 45-member executive committee consists of 10 Oromo members, 8 Amharas, 4 Somalis with the remaining distributed among other regional constituencies.  This was not the outcome desired by many Amhara elites.

Tigrayan Female Soldiers Experienced Sexual Abuse from Their Own Commanders

 The New Humanitarian published on 16 July 2026 an article titled "As War Fears Grow in Ethiopia, Women Soldiers Recount the Sexual Violence They Experienced" by Mehret Okubay Berehe and Hilary Matfess.

During the 2020-2022 conflict in Tigray, females suffered sexual violence by Ethiopian federal government forces, Eritrean Defense Forces, and Amhara militia.  This article, however, focuses on sexual abuse of female Tigrayan soldiers at the hands of commanders and officers in the Tigray Defense Force, the organization where they served.  

Youth and Social Media Challenge Authority in Ethiopia's Tigray Region

 Ethiopia Insight published on 17 July 2026 a commentary titled "Tigray's Youth Are Breaking the TPLF's Narrative Monopoly" by Asmelash Yohannes Teklu.

The rise of social media in Tigray region of Ethiopia is challenging the Tigray People's Liberation Front's control of information.  Young Tigrayans are rejecting attempts to drag Tigray into another destructive conflict.  They are confronting the TPLF in ways that would have been unimaginable a decade ago.

Is Ethiopia Sliding Toward a New Tigray War?

 The International Crisis Group posted on 10 July 2026 a 40-minute podcast titled "Is Ethiopia Sliding Toward a New Tigray War?" with Alan Boswell and Payton Knopf, Dialogue Advisory Group and former U.S. Deputy Special Envoy for the Horn of Africa.  

They discuss the background and status of the Pretoria Agreement and the rising risk of renewed war in Ethiopia's Tigray Region.  They look at how unresolved disputes over territory, Tigray's federal status, internal divisions, and worsening Ethiopia-Eritrea tensions could push the region back toward war.  They also unpack why escalating regional dynamics, including the war in Sudan, could make a renewed conflict even more explosive, why full-scale war is not inevitable, and what practical off ramps still remain.

Ethiopia Not Concerned About Counter Alliance

The Sudan Tribune published on 8 July 2026 an article titled "Ethiopia Faces No Threat from Regional Alliance, PM Abiy Says." 

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed dismissed concerns over an alleged growing alliance of Eritrea, Sudan, and the Tigray People's Liberation Front, noting that his country is improving its defensive capabilities.

Ethiopia: TPLF Issues New Controversial Proclamation

 Ethiopia Insight published on 23 June 2026 a commentary titled "TPLF's New Proclamation Codifies a Police State" by Getachew Gebrekiros Temare.  

The author dissects a new Tigray People's Liberation Front 42-page proclamation that imposes compulsory mobilization and establishes wartime institutions under presidential command.  He concludes the proclamation should be withdrawn before it becomes "a machinery of fear" over the Tigrayan people.   

Ethiopia Expels French Journalist

 The Committee to Protect Journalists posted on 12 June 2026 a press release titled "Ethiopia Expels French Journalist Augustine Passilly after Reporting Trip to Tigray."

Following a reporting trip to Ethiopia's Tigray Region, Ethiopian authorities expelled Augustine Passilly, La Croix newspaper's Ethiopia correspondent since September 2023.  

U.S.-Ethiopia Relations

 Ethiopia Insight published on 1 June 2026 a commentary titled "Washington's Ethiopia Reset Risks Rewarding Impunity" by Getachew Gebrekiros Temare.

The author argues Ethiopia is pursuing a transactional foreign policy with the United States and other major international players, playing one against another.  He urges the United States engage in a responsible dialogue with Ethiopia that addresses serious unresolved security issues. 

Censorship in Runup to Ethiopia's Elections

 The Committee to Protect Journalists published on 29 May 2026 an article titled "'Under the Shadow of Fear': Censorship Is Ethiopia's Real Election Story, Journalists Say."

Intimidation of the press is becoming the norm in the runup to Ethiopia's national elections.  Numerous reporters have experienced a variety of challenges as they attempt to cover the elections. 

Local Militia in Amhara Region Disrupts Ethiopian Elections

 AEIs Critical Threats Africa File published on 28 May 2026 an article titled "Fano Disrupts Ethiopian Elections" by Michael DeAngelo.

Fano militia has stepped up its attacks in Amhara Region as Ethiopia approaches national elections on June 1.  The federal government announced it will not hold elections in at least 8 of Amhara's 138 constituencies due to insecurity.

Ethiopia's Tigray Tinderbox

The International Crisis Group (ICG) posted on 27 May 2026 a commentary titled "Flashpoint: Ethiopia's Tigray Tinderbox" by Comfort Ero. 

ICG President Comfort Ero warns that federal Ethiopian and Tigrayan troops are on the verge of a return to conflict, which could quickly spread to neighboring Eritrea and Sudan.

Pre-election Challenges Facing Ethiopia

 Foreign Affairs published on 26 May 2026 an article titled "The War in Ethiopia Isn't Over" by Hilary Matfess, University of Denver.

As Ethiopia prepares to hold national elections on June 1, Tigray Region remains combustible, and insurgencies continue in several other regions.

Ethiopia: Failure of the Pretoria Agreement

 Ethiopia Insight published on 20 May 2026 a commentary titled "The AU Turned Pretoria into Abiy's Shield" by Desta Haileselassie Hagos, Howard University.

This account provides one interpretation for the failure to implement the Pretoria Agreement in a manner that ends conflict in Ethiopia's Tigray Region.  

Power Struggle in Ethiopia's Tigray Region Has Wide Implications

 The International Crisis Group published on 15 May 2026 an analysis titled "Power Struggle in Ethiopia's Tigray: Averting a Return to War" by Magnus Taylor.

The Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) under the control of Debretsion Gebremichael has seized control of the federal government supported Tigrayan administration in Mekele in a power grab.  This is a direct challenge to the federal government of Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed.  

The situation is further complicated because the TPLF has the support of neighboring Eritrea and the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) government in Khartoum.  For its part, the Abiy Ahmed government has been supportive of the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Sudan, which is engaged in a civil war with the SAF.  Egypt may also join the fray on the side of the TPLF in order to complicate life for Addis Ababa as it builds dams on the Blue Nile, raising concerns in Cairo.  

Rising Tension in Ethiopia's Tigray Region

 AEI's Critical Threats Africa File posted on 7 May 2026 an article titled "TPLF Takes Control of Tigray" by Michael DeAngelo.  

The Tigray People's Liberation Front reinstated the pre-Tigray war regional government, effectively voiding the Pretoria peace agreement that ended the Tigray war in 2022.  This action creates a rival body to replace the Tigray Interim Administration (TIA).  It also sets up a showdown with the Ethiopian federal government, which supports the TIA, and increases the risk of military confrontation.  

Drone Attacks in Sudan Heighten Tension with Ethiopia

 AEI's Critical Threats Africa File posted on 7 May 2026 an article titled "Ethiopia-Sudan Tensions Rise over RSF Khartoum Strikes" by Michael DeAngelo.

In early May, the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) launched a series of drone attacks across Sudan, including on the international airport of Khartoum.  The Sudan Armed Forces accused the UAE and Ethiopia of facilitating the drone strikes, including their launching from Bahir Dar airport and a RSF military base inside Ethiopia along the Sudan border.  

Ethiopian Prime Minister Quietly Manipulates Political Forces in Tigray Region

 Ethiopia Insight published on 27 April 2026 a commentary titled "Abiy Is Quietly Dismantling Tigray" by Asmelash Yohannes Teklu, former senior advisor at the Ethiopian Human Rights Commission. 

The Tigray People's Liberation Front bears responsibility for its internal fractures, which the federal government is using to its advantage.  As a result, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has secured outcomes through quiet, calculated maneuvering that advance his strategic interests while avoiding the scrutiny that a return to war would incite.  Tigray remains deeply divided.