US Opposes UN Funding for African Union Mission in Somalia

 The International Crisis Group posted on 3 September 2026 a 32-minute podcast titled "Somalia's End-of-Year Cliffhanger" with Alan Boswell and Samira Gaid, analyst with a Mogadishu-based think tank.  

As the United States steps up its air attacks on al-Shabaab in Somalia, it is opposing continued UN funding in support of the African Union mission there, apparently out of concern that the mission is not effective.  Failure to fund the mission, however, could jeopardize efforts to defeat al-Shabaab.  The situation is complicated by upcoming national elections, differences among Somali federal states, and numerous external actors.  

Analysis of Somalia's Governance Crisis

 The Emirates Policy Center published on 13 August 2026 an analysis titled "Trends and Shifts in the Somali Landscape: From Constitutional Dispute to a Crisis of Legitimacy."

Somalia is experiencing one of its most complex political crises since the adoption of the federal system in 2012.  These tensions coincide with growing friction between the federal government and federal member states, particularly Puntland.

The analysis concludes that the current governance crisis extends far beyond electoral arrangements or constitutional amendments.  Its roots reach into the very foundation of the fragile consensus upon which the federal state has been built in the last decade and a half.

Ethiopia: Is Tigray Following the Eritrean Example?

 Ethiopia Insight published on 10 August 2026 a commentary titled "The Eritrea Script Exposes Ethiopia's Unity Farce" by Asfaw Gedamu, independent writer.

This is a critique of the National Dialogue process now underway in Ethiopia, and especially the absence of Tigray from the Dialogue.  The author discusses the increasing distance between Tigray and the rest of Ethiopia and draws parallels with Eritrean independence.  He concludes that the argument for Tigray remaining within the federation is becoming harder to sustain.   

Somalis Concerned about Future of Federalism in Ethiopia

 Ethiopia Insight published on 18 July 2026 a commentary titled "Ethiopia's National Dialogue Could Unravel the Federal Bargain" by Muktar Ismail.  

On 15 July, Ethiopia's long awaited National Dialogue Conference opened in Addis Ababa with over 4,000 participants from around the nation.  

The author argues that many Somalis in Ethiopia view the Conference not as an attempt to achieve national reconciliation but an attempt to revise Ethiopia's federalist form of government, which remains central to Somali preferences.  

An Analysis of Ethiopia's Parliamentary Elections

 The Emirates Policy Center published on 7 July 2026 an analysis titled "Ethiopia's Seventh Elections: Challenges of Internal Stability and Repercussions on Regional Politics."

The huge victory by the ruling Prosperity Party in Ethiopia's recent parliamentary elections did not resolve the crisis of political legitimacy, as the electoral process remained characterized by a precarious security environment, inequitable competition, and a significant lack of voter turnout in numerous regions.

Does American Federalism Offer Lessons for Ethiopia?

 Ethiopia Insight published on 15 April 2026 a commentary titled "American Federalism Model Can Inspire Ethiopia Reforms" by Nagessa Dube, lawyer in Seattle, Washington.

The author makes the argument that the basic principles of American federalism offer lessons for Ethiopian governance.  American federalism has a clearer conception of dual sovereignty than is the case with Ethiopian federalism.  In addition, the role of the judicial system is particularly important in the American model.  

Somalia Cancels All Deals with the UAE

 Aljazeera published on 13 January 2026 an article titled "'Last Straw': Somalia Cuts UAE Ties after Yemen Separatist's Illegal Entry" by Faisal Ali.  

Somalia cancelled all deals with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) after UAE-backed Yemeni separatist leader Aidarous al-Zubaidi illegally entered Abu Dhabi through the breakaway region of Somaliland.  Mogadishu had other complaints against the UAE, but this was the final straw.  The two countries apparently did not break diplomatic relations.  

Israel's Recognition of Somaliland Changes Dynamic in Horn of Africa

 Ethiopia Insight published on 12 January 2026 a commentary titled "The Geopolitical Ripple Effects of Somaliland's Recognition" by Muktar Ismail, regional analyst.  

Israel's recognition of Somaliland sparked a largely negative international response, underscoring its isolation on the issue.  Of the 15 member states of the UN Security Council, only the United States defended Israel's right to recognize Somaliland.  The al-Shabaab terrorist organization, which controls parts of Somalia, cast the decision as a "Zionist crusader project."

Navigating Federalism and Elections in Somalia

 The Heritage Institute for Policy Studies published in November 2025 a policy brief titled "Somalia's 2026 Mandate Test: Navigating Elections and Federal Tensions."

This policy brief examines the federal government's evolving role in Federal Member States' elections, the competing interpretations of constitutional authority, and the political and logistical obstacles to direct voting.  

Somalia Risks Becoming a Jihadist State

 The Africa Center for Strategic Studies published on 17 November 2025 an analysis titled "Somalia at Risk of Becoming a Jihadist State" by Matt Bryden, founder of Sahan, a policy and research center focused on the Horn of Africa.

The author has extensive experience in Somalia and Somaliland.  He says al-Shabaab now controls about 30 percent of Somalia's territory, far more than the federal government in Mogadishu, and poses a serious threat of taking the capital.  The federal government is heavily reliant on the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission for security.  

Somalia's economy is fractured and heavily dependent on three major ports of Kismayo, Mogadishu, and Bossaso while Berbera supports Somaliland.  The ports, in turn, empower different federal states that often defy central government authority.  The author concludes that Somalia faces a prospect that it may become an illiberal Islamist state.   

Somalia: The Formation of Hirshabelle State

 The Heritage Institute for Policy Studies published in November 2025 a study titled "The Formation of Hirshabelle State: Challenges and Opportunities."  

Established in 2016 as the fifth federal member of Somalia, Hirshabelle State represented a pivotal yet contentious milestone in the country's governance process, which was widely criticized for its rushed and exclusionary decision-making.  The process exacerbated unresolved grievances among key stakeholders.  

Somali Arms Flows Hinder Peace

 Ethiopia Insight published on 29 September 2025 a commentary titled "Weapons of Discord" by Adam Daud Ahmed, Horn of Africa security analyst.

Somalia's federal system of government has resulted in the indiscriminate flow of arms to clan militias, which has exacerbated conflict in the country.  The author suggests the United Nations needs to introduce conditional arms controls.  

Somalia's State-building Program under Pressure

 The Economist published on 24 July 2025 an article titled "Somalia's State-building Project Is in Tatters."

For the past 8 months local forces from the federal state of Puntland, backed with airstrikes by the US and UAE, have been waging an all-out and successful war against the Islamic State. On the other hand, the central government has been losing ground in its battle with al-Shabaab and relations between Mogadishu and the federal states have deteriorated.  

Conflict between Ethiopian Nationalism and Regionalism

 Ethiopia Insight published on 25 June 2025 a commentary titled "Othering in Disguise: Nationalism, Regionalism, and the Search for Civic Belonging in Ethiopia" by Daniel Hailu, a multidisciplinary researcher.  

The author argues that Ethiopia's political landscape is shaped by two powerful, often contradictory forces: nationalism, which unites people under a shared identity, and regionalism or federalism, which seeks to empower marginalized groups through autonomy.  But within both "isms" is a tendency to define oneself by negating the other.  To build enduring unity, Ethiopia must cultivate a culture where identity is not weaponized.  

Somalia: Rule of Law and Independent Judiciary

 The Heritage Institute for Policy Studies published in January 2025 a study titled "Rule of Law and Independent Judiciary in Somalia" by Bashir M. Sheikh-Ali.  

Somalia's judiciary has historically been weak and politically influenced, limiting its ability to uphold the rule of law.  Somalia's Provisional Constitution does not resolve this problem.

The author advocates for the creation of strong legal frameworks and institutions, emphasizing that Somalia's cultural commitment to justice, if properly harnessed, can ignite a transformative legal renaissance in the country.  

Fixing Somalia's Political System

 The Heritage Institute for Policy Studies published in December 2024 a report titled "18 Months to Fix Somalia's Broken Political Trajectory."

Presidential and parliamentary elections are scheduled for May 2026, giving Somalia 18 months to restore trust in the political system.  Without urgent reforms, Somalia risks further political instability.  The paper offers recommendations for building political consensus and international confidence.  

The Somali National Security Architecture

 The Rift Valley Institute published in March 2024 a paper titled "The Shaping of the Somali National Security Architecture."

This policy paper assesses the revised National Security Architecture in Somalia, pinpointing critical deficiencies and offering policy recommendations to strengthen the national security framework.  

The Way Forward in Somalia

 The Jerusalem Strategic Tribune published in February 2024 a commentary titled "Making Somalia Safe Again" by Staffan Tillander, former Swedish ambassador to Somalia.  

The defeat of al-Shabaab alone will not end Somalia's problems.  Strong leadership must also reconcile and resolve conflicts through dialogue in an effort to find a common way forward.  

Podcast on Ethiopia and the Horn of Africa

 Seattle-based Dhugaa Media posted on 3 February 2024 a 54-minute podcast titled "Focus on Ethiopia and the Horn Region" with me moderated by Nagessa Oddo Dube.  

This is a wide-ranging discussion of issues in the Horn of Africa with a focus on Ethiopia, Somalia, Somaliland, Djibouti, and Eritrea.  

Rebalancing US Policy in Somalia

 The International Crisis Group (ICG) published on 27 June 2023 a lengthy analysis titled "Out of the Box: How to Rebalance U.S. Somalia Policy."

The ICG argues that the United States should rebalance its policy in Somalia by increasing stabilization assistance and more effectively help Somalia address political rifts impeding conflict resolution.  The ICG also suggests Washington should prepare for the possibility of negotiations between Mogadishu and al-Shabaab.