Nigeria Turns to French and Israeli Satellite Companies to Replace Chinese Company

 Business Insider Africa published on 24 August 2026 an article titled "After $11.4 Million China Satellite Debt Dispute, Nigeria Turns to Israeli, French Firms for Next-generation Satellites" by Solomon Ekanem.

Nigeria is turning to Israeli and French satellite manufacturers for its next-generation communications infrastructure, months after a dispute with China Great Wall Industry Corporation (CGWIC) exposed the country's dependence on China for critical satellite operations.  The decision follows a dispute with CGWIC, which threatened to suspend services over an $11.44 million debt.  

Somaliland Seeks to Be Red Sea Security Player

 The Economist published on 20 August 2026 an article titled "Somaliland Wants to Help Secure the Red Sea."

Somaliland's president says his country can help secure the Red Sea by offering military bases to global powers along its coastline.  Somaliland is prepared to offer both the United States and Israel bases at the port of Berbera.  

Significance of China-Egypt Military Exercise

 Modern Diplomacy published on 22 August 2026 a commentary titled "Egypt and China's 2026 Military Drills: What They Mean for US and Israeli Security" by Nadia Helmy, Beni Suef University.

The Egyptian-Chinese "Eagles of Civilization" military exercise involving the air forces of both countries reflects Cairo's pursuit of diversifying its arms sources and building operational independence. It also raises concerns in both Washington and Tel Aviv.   

Interview on the Horn of Africa

 Saxafi Media posted on 23 August 2026 an interview with me titled "Inside Washington's Somaliland Dilemma: David Shinn Reveals What U.S. Policy Really Means."

Although much of the interview deals with Somaliland, it covers issues throughout the Horn of Africa and beyond, including US support for Somalia sovereignty, Israel's recognition of Somaliland, importance of Ethiopia, the conflict in Sudan. Egypt's role in the region, security in the Red Sea, competition with China, the role of African diasporas, and the contribution of UN agencies and IGAD.

China Is Largest Drone Supplier in Africa

 Military Africa recently posted the "Africa Drone Procurement Report 2026."  The dataset comprises 234 procurement records across 34 African nations from at least 21 supplier countries spanning 1980 to 2026.  During this period, it identified 1,959 drone units obtained by African countries.  From 2020 to 2026, African countries procured 1,054 drone units or 53 percent of the total since 1980.

China was the leading supplier at 587 drones or just under 30 percent of the total procured in Africa. Its Wing Loong armed drones and Rainbow CH series drones went primarily to Egypt (126 units), Khalifa Haftar's Libyan National Army (80), Nigeria (72), Ethiopia (57), and Algeria (49).  Chinese drones appeared extensively in active combat zones (Libya, Ethiopia, and Sudan).  They are particularly favored for their low cost, availability, and lack of human rights conditionality. 

The next most important suppliers after China are Israel (325 drones), Türkiye (291), US (247), and locally manufactured (216).  Iran and Russia supply drones to active conflict-zone actors through more opaque channels.  Israeli drones have gone primarily to Morocco, with smaller numbers to Ethiopia, Uganda, Zambia, and Libya's Government of National Unity.   

US Policy Challenges in the Horn of Africa

 Responsible Statecraft posted on 12 August 2026 an article titled "How the Egypt-Ethiopia Feud Could Upend Trump's Plans in Africa" by Jonathan Fenton Harvey.

The United States is sending mixed and confusing signals to Egypt, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Sudan, Somalia, and Somaliland on complex relations in the region dealing with allocation of Nile waters and Ethiopia's quest for access to the sea.

Podcast on Horn of Africa

 The Somali Media Network posted on 8 August 2026 a 42-minute podcast with me hosted by Ismail Gorse on the Horn of Africa.  

This is a wide-ranging discussion of current issues in the Horn of Africa and US policy with a special focus on Somalia and Somaliland.

Saudi Arabia Creates Red Sea Task Force

 AEIs Critical Threats Africa File posted on 6 August 2026 an article titled "Red Sea" by Michael DeAngelo and Liam Karr.

Saudi Arabia announced on 30 July the formation of a Multinational Maritime Defense Alliance to protect shipping in the Red Sea and adjacent waterways following the Bab el-Mandeb Strait blockade of Saudi ships by the Houthi rebels in Yemen.  So far, 14 nations have joined the task force.  

Red Sea Security and US Policy

 The Congressional Research Service published on 21 July 2026 a brief titled "Yemen: Conflict, Red Sea Security, and U.S. Policy" by Christopher M. Blanchard.

In March 2025, the Trump administration designated the Iranian-backed Houthis a Foreign Terrorist Organization.  On March 15, 2025, U.S. forces began a military campaign against the Houthis which the administration said was intended to compel them to end attacks on international shipping in the Red Sea.  The United States and the Houthis agreed to a truce in May 2025, which continues to hold.  

State of Somalia in 2025

 The Heritage Institute for Policy Studies published in July 2026 a report titled "State of Somalia 2025."

The report reviews the major political, security, economic, diplomatic, humanitarian, and regional developments that shaped Somalia in 2025.  Somalia recorded notable gains in international diplomacy, institutional development, regional integration, and state visibility.  It also experienced persistent political polarization, federal-state tensions, humanitarian vulnerability, and unresolved questions surrounding constitutional and electoral processes that continued to challenge state-building efforts.

Somalia demonstrated growing international relevance and achieved several important diplomatic and institutional milestones.  Yet progress remained constrained by external interference, including Israel's violation of Somalia's sovereignty through its recognition of Somaliland, alongside political fragmentation, unresolved constitutional questions, persistent insecurity, and recurring humanitarian crises.

Background of Houthis' Red Sea Blockade

 Pakistan's South Asian Chronicle published on 1 August 2026 an article titled "Houthi Red Sea Crisis."

This is a nice summary of the background of the Houthi blockade of the Red Sea and relations with Saudi Arabia.  

Impact of Houthi Blockade in Red Sea

 AEIs Critical Threats posted on 23 July 2026 an analysis titled "Houthi Blockade in the Red Sea" by Michael DeAngelo, Liam Karr, and Alexsandar Wiebler.

The Iranian-backed Houthi blockade of the south end of the Red Sea has already disrupted shipping in the Red Sea, causing increased costs and transit delays.  The Houthi blockade will further increase fuel shortages, negatively impact African countries that rely on Saudi fuel shipments, and strain the global economy.  

Yemen's Houthis Reportedly Ready to Attack Shipping in Southern Red Sea

 CNBC posted on 22 July 2026 an article titled "Houthis Deploy Missiles and Drones to Attack Ships in Southern Red Sea, Naval Group Says" by Spencer Kimball.

Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen have completed preparations to attack shipping, including the deployment of missiles and drones positioned near the Bab el-Mandeb choke point at the south end of the Red Sea. 

The European Union's naval mission in the Middle East warned commercial ships linked to Saudi Arabia, Israel, and the United States to avoid transiting the Red Sea or Gulf of Aden.

Houthi Threat to the Red Sea

 The Council on Foreign Relations published on 20 July 2026 a background piece titled "Another Hormuz? What to Know About the Houthi Threat to the Red Sea" by Diana Roy.

The Yemen-based and Iranian-backed Houthis' decision to impose a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia opens a new front in the U.S.-Iran war and threatens to choke off the Red Sea's 20-mile-wide Bab el-Mandeb Strait, with potentially major consequences for the global economy.

Urgent Diplomacy Needed to Calm Down Horn of Africa

 The International Crisis Group published on 17 July 2026 a commentary titled "As the Horn of Africa Nears Boiling Point, Time for Urgent Diplomacy" by Alan Boswell. 

Given the uncertainty about Washington's level of commitment to bring peace to the Horn of Africa, additional Gulf States, the European Union, the United Nations, Norway, and the United Kingdom should step up their engagement.  

Iran War Intensifies US-China Competition in Africa

 The Middle East Council on Global Affairs, a policy research institution based in Doha, Qatar, published on 16 July 2026 a commentary titled "Iran War Intensifies U.S.-China Rivalry in Africa" by Mustapha Boudoumi.

Disruptions to maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz have highlighted the strategic importance of African choke points such as the Suez Canal and Bab el-Mandeb.  The situation in Iran has put increasing focus on China-US competition for critical minerals in Africa.  

Drones Are Becoming Weapon of Choice in African Conflicts

 Foreign Affairs published on 26 June 2026 an article titled "Who Is Winning Africa's Drone Wars?" by Nate Allen and Rida Lyammouri.

Inexpensive drones are fast becoming the weapon of choice in African conflicts.  They are being deployed by both governments and insurgent groups.  China is now Africa's largest supplier of drones, accounting for a quarter of those procured.

Foreign drones have turned African conflicts such as the civil war in Sudan into destabilizing proxy wars.  At least eleven African countries now produce drones including Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa, and Morocco.

Podcast of Somaliland's Culture and History

 Higher Education Today posted about a month ago a 29-minute podcast titled "Culture and History of Somaliland" hosted by Steven Roy Goodman with Jama Musa Jama, Hargeisa Cultural Centre, and Lee Cassanelli, professor emeritus at the University of Pennsylvania.  

This is a positive account filmed in Hargeisa of Somaliland's history and culture, interspersed with video clips of the country.  

Changing Geopolitics in the Horn of Africa

 The Rift Valley Institute recently published a report titled "The New Geopolitics of Eastern Africa."

The British Institute of Eastern Africa, Chatham House, and the Rift Valley Institute convened a group of experts to discuss the ongoing transformation of geopolitics in the Horn of Africa.  This paper summarizes their conclusions, noting that the region is experiencing profound multi-decade shifts in its relationship with the wider world.  

The Scramble for the Red Sea

 The International Crisis Group posted on 29 June 2026 a 41-minute podcast titled "The Scramble for the Red Sea Is Not Cooling Down" by Alan Boswell with Federico Donelli, University of Trieste and author of a new book on the topic.

The scramble for control in the Red Sea region began during the Cold War and increased in intensity in the 21st century.  There are now many new actors in the Red Sea.  Middle powers have become as significant as major powers.  

Russia has been seeking, so far without success, a military base in the region for years.  China established a military base in Djibouti to protect its interests in the region and to extend global power.  The Gulf states, especially Saudi Arabia, have become much more engaged in the Red Sea.

The US/Israeli war against Iran has underscored the importance of the Red Sea for international shipping.  The European Union is the one grouping that should be more engaged in the region than it is.