Red Sea Security and US Policy

 The Congressional Research Service published on 21 July 2026 a brief titled "Yemen: Conflict, Red Sea Security, and U.S. Policy" by Christopher M. Blanchard.

In March 2025, the Trump administration designated the Iranian-backed Houthis a Foreign Terrorist Organization.  On March 15, 2025, U.S. forces began a military campaign against the Houthis which the administration said was intended to compel them to end attacks on international shipping in the Red Sea.  The United States and the Houthis agreed to a truce in May 2025, which continues to hold.  

Yemen, Red Sea, and US Policy

 The Congressional Research Service published on 20 February 2026 a brief titled "Yemen, Conflict, Red Sea Security, and U.S. Policy" by Christopher M. Blanchard.  

This is a summary of U.S. policy during the Trump administration in Yemen and security issues in the Red Sea.  

Rethinking Aid in Sudan and South Sudan

 The Rift Valley Institute published in 2026 a paper titled "Rethinking Aid in Sudan and South Sudan."

More than 30 grassroots and international non-governmental organizations convened in Kampala, Uganda, in November 2025 to discuss the future of development and humanitarian aid to Sudan and South Sudan in view of the dramatic contraction of assistance, especially as a result of the dismantlement of USAID.  They proposed numerous recommendations to deal with the crisis.  

US Ends Protected Status for South Sudan Nationals

 CBS News posted on 5 November 2025 an article titled "Trump Administration Ending Protected Status for South Sudanese Nationals" by Nicole Sganga.

The US Department of Homeland Security (DHS) announced that the protected status of some 5,000 South Sudanese nationals living in the United States lapsed on 3 November, triggering a 60-day grace period to depart the United States or face deportation.  DHS is urging them to depart voluntarily in spite of difficult conditions in South Sudan.  This marks a significant shift in U.S. policy towards South Sudan.

Has US Given Up on Preventing Wars in Horn of Africa?

 The New York Times published on 9 May 2025 a commentary titled "The Wars We Still Can Stop" by Cameron Hudson, Center for Strategic and International Studies.

As the Trump administration steps back from the Horn of Africa and guts existing diplomacy tools, it raises the question whether Washington has abdicated its peacemaking role in the region.  The author asks, "how many American warriors do we intend to commit to wars we could have stopped before they started?"

Issues for US in War on Houthis

 The Congressional Research Service posted on 17 April 2025 a policy brief titled "Yemen: Conflict, Red Sea Attacks, and U.S. Policy" by Christoper M. Blanchard. 

This paper provides a nonpartisan summary of developments concerning Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping, the US response, and current US policy.   

Congress Has a Choice on Sudan

 Foreign Policy published on 31 March 2025 a commentary titled "Congress Has a Choice on Sudan" by Gregory W. Meeks, ranking member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee.  

The Trump administration cancelled emergency aid for Sudan on 26 February.  The author, the ranking Democrat on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, is calling on Congress to resume humanitarian aid to Sudan, among other steps for dealing with the catastrophe.

Impact of USAID Dismantling Becoming Clearer

 The Hill published on 21 March 2025 an article titled "Internal USAID List Provides Snapshot of Trump Cuts" by Laura Kelly.

A 400-page list provided to Congress offers insights on the cuts the Trump administration is making to USAID.  Ending some of these programs in the health sector will result in deaths overseas and endanger Americans in the United States while cuts in food programs will have a negative impact on American farmers who grow and supply the food for humanitarian programs.  The goal of the Trump administration seems to be to destroy USAID.

Comment:  The remnants of USAID will be transferred to the State Department.  One important issue that is receiving little attention is the fact that the State Department is ill-equipped and understaffed to manage a variety of humanitarian programs.  

Can China Fill the Foreign Aid Hole?

 Brookings published on 11 March 2025 a commentary titled "Can China Fill the Void in Foreign Aid?" by Yun Sun.

China's foreign aid has consistently been a fraction of America's.  The highly publicized Belt and Road Initiative is mostly a commercial activity with a small percentage of development finance.  China's global foreign aid budget for 2024 was $2.85 billion.  Traditionally, about half the budget goes to countries in Africa.  In 2023, USAID's global budget was about $42 billion, and the State Department provided another $19 billion.  

Not only has the United States provided far more aid, but nearly all of it is in the form of grants while the largest percentage of China's aid is the concessionary part of loans.  The dismantlement of USAID by the Trump administration will leave China with more influence in a smaller space, but it doesn't mean China can step in to fill the void.   In addition, USAID's portfolio of humanitarian assistance does not overlap with China's capabilities.  China will likely seek political, diplomatic, and economic returns for any increase in its assistance.  Most significantly, Beijing will work to exploit the opportunity of American withdrawal to portray the US as the irresponsible great power.   

Will China Replace US Foreign Aid?

 AidData published in March 2025 an analysis titled "Into the Breach: Will China Step Up as the U.S. Retreats from Global Development?" by Samantha Custer, Bryan Burgess, and Narayani Sritharan.  

AidData concluded that Beijing is unlikely to fully step into the breach by mimicking America's historical role as the largest aid supplier in sectors such as health, governance, and humanitarian assistance.  China might approach the US dismantlement of USAID by doubling down on three existing lines of engagement: a public-private focus on a "Health Silk Road," aid-like training and capacity building of civilian government officials and security services, and China-led leadership of South-South cooperation related to emergencies and conflict.  

The Aid System is Collapsing. Now What?

 The International Crisis Group posted on 5 March 2025 a 25-minute podcast titled "The Aid System Is Collapsing.  Now What?" with Alan Boswell and Sarah Pantuliano, CEO of the Overseas Development Institute.

This is a discussion of the Trump administration's dismantlement of USAID amid a trend of broader cuts to foreign aid by Western governments.  Boswell and Pantuliano examine whether the abrupt funding freeze by USAID is collapsing aid operations on the ground and why that matters.  They suggest we may be moving into a post-aid world that requires a more impactful form of investment.  But in the meantime, disaster looms.  

US Designates Houthis as a Foreign Terrorist Organization

 The US Department of State posted on 4 March 2025 a press statement titled "Designation of Ansarallah as a Foreign Terrorist Organization."

The United States designated Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis (Ansarallah) as a foreign terrorist organization, noting that their activities threaten the security of American civilians and personnel in the Middle East, the safety of our closest regional partners, and the stability of global maritime trade.

The State Department also announced a reward of up to $15 million and possible re-location for information leading to the disruption of financial mechanisms of Ansarallah.

The Associated Press published on 4 March 2025 an article titled "Trump Administration again Labels the Houthis a 'Foreign Terrorist Organization'" by Matthew Lee.

This article adds context to the State Department announcement.  

China Won't Replace USAID in Africa, But

 Semafor published on 3 March 2025 an article titled "China Won't 'Replace' USAID in Africa" by Yinka Adegoke.  

As the Trump administration dismantles USAID and fires most of its personnel, Semafor spoke with China-Africa analysts who generally believed there would not be any notable change in China's overall approach in Africa in the short to medium term.  While the US departure offers an opportunity for Beijing, China is not in a position to replace all the assistance once provided by USAID.

Comment:  Strictly speaking, I agree with this conclusion, but China will step in and replace US funding in a few highly visible and popular projects, widely publicize the effort, and obtain enormous propaganda value at little cost to China as US influence erodes even further.   

Video Clip on Gutting of USAID

 KGW News in Portland, Oregon posted on 21 February 2025 a two-minute video clip titled "Former US Ambassador Questions USAID Cuts by Trump Administration."

Former US ambassador Niels Marquardt discusses the important role played in US foreign policy by the US Agency for International Development.

A Former Republican USAID Administrator: Don't Gut the Organization

 Foreign Affairs published on 7 February 2025 an article titled "Don't Gut USAID" by Andrew Natsios, administrator of USAID during the George W. Bush administration.  

The author argues the Trump administration stop work order for USAID has paralyzed US aid programs around the world, bankrupting fragile local aid groups and small businesses and putting lives at risk.  Simply slashing vital programs is a huge mistake, but a far-reaching review and restructuring of US foreign aid is overdue.  If USAID disappears, the Trump administration will cede the field to China and Russia.  

American Foreign Aid: Where It Goes and Why

 The Wall Street Journal published on 10 February 2025 an article titled "How Much the U.S. Spent on Foreign Aid--and Where It Went" by Gabriele Steinhauser and Ming Li.

This is a useful analysis of the money spent by the United States Agency for International Development that the Trump administration is in the process of dismantling. It explains where the money goes, how it compares to foreign aid from other countries, how it is distributed, and which countries receive most of it.  

Facts About US Foreign Aid

 The Pew Research Center published on 6 February 2025 a fact sheet titled "What the Data Says about U.S. Foreign Aid" by Drew DeSilver.

As the Trump administration dismantles USAID, this fact sheet summarizes how and where U.S. foreign aid has been used.  

Confusion in US Humanitarian Aid Across Africa

 The Washington Post published on 4 February 2025 an article titled "Fear, Pain and Hunger: The Dire Impact of U.S. Funding Cuts in Africa" by Katharine Houreld and Rachel Chason.  

The Trump administration's decision to cancel or suspend billions of dollars in foreign aid is deepening a humanitarian crisis and putting lives at risk across Africa.  Countries like Sudan, already facing the world's largest humanitarian crisis, are experiencing the worst of the pain.  

Impact on Yemen of Houthi Red Sea Attacks

 The New Delhi-based Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses published on 25 September 2024 an analysis titled "The Houthi Attacks in the Red Sea: Impact on Yemen" by Prasanta Kumar Pradhan.  

The Red Sea conflict has created new obstacles in the intra-Yemeni dialogue, slowing the pace of talks and further eroding trust among the parties.  The delivery of humanitarian assistance to the people is also disrupted.  These developments are worsening Yemen's political, security, and economic situation, making the prospects for peace more tenuous.

Podcast on US Elections, Africa Policy, and Horn of Africa

 Tigrai Press posted on 28 July 2024 a one-hour podcast with me hosted by Bisrat Kebede.  The conversation focuses initially on the election campaign between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, implications of the election for Africa policy, and Project 2025.  The remainder of the podcast deals with many of the ongoing issues in the Horn of Africa.