The Economist published on 20 August 2026 an article titled "Somaliland Wants to Help Secure the Red Sea."
Somaliland's president says his country can help secure the Red Sea by offering military bases to global powers along its coastline. Somaliland is prepared to offer both the United States and Israel bases at the port of Berbera.
Saxafi Media posted on 23 August 2026 an interview with me titled "Inside Washington's Somaliland Dilemma: David Shinn Reveals What U.S. Policy Really Means."
Although much of the interview deals with Somaliland, it covers issues throughout the Horn of Africa and beyond, including US support for Somalia sovereignty, Israel's recognition of Somaliland, importance of Ethiopia, the conflict in Sudan. Egypt's role in the region, security in the Red Sea, competition with China, the role of African diasporas, and the contribution of UN agencies and IGAD.
Responsible Statecraft posted on 12 August 2026 an article titled "How the Egypt-Ethiopia Feud Could Upend Trump's Plans in Africa" by Jonathan Fenton Harvey.
The United States is sending mixed and confusing signals to Egypt, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Sudan, Somalia, and Somaliland on complex relations in the region dealing with allocation of Nile waters and Ethiopia's quest for access to the sea.
The Somali Media Network posted on 8 August 2026 a 42-minute podcast with me hosted by Ismail Gorse on the Horn of Africa.
This is a wide-ranging discussion of current issues in the Horn of Africa and US policy with a special focus on Somalia and Somaliland.
This is the full text of the interview by Omar Faruk Osman, Secretary-General of the National Union of Somali Journalists, with General Dagvin R.M. Anderson, the Commander of U.S. Africa Command in Mogadishu and posted on 31 July 2026.
Most of the interview focuses on US-Somali cooperation in combatting al-Shabaab and the Islamic State in Somalia. This is the interview where General Anderson also said, "there are no plans to build a base in Somaliland" and "U.S. policy is, and remains, the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Somalia. That has not changed."
AEIs Critical Threats Africa File posted on 6 August 2026 an article titled "Somalia" by Michael DeAngelo and Aaryaman Shah.
The United States is pursuing an increased dual track engagement with local Somali governments in Puntland and Jubaland together with unilaterally independent Somaliland as it continues to recognize the sovereignty of the central Somali government in Mogadishu.
The Doha, Qatar-based Middle East Council on Global Affairs published in February 2026 an open access E-book titled "The Red Sea: Divided by Water, United by Opportunities" edited by Dalia Ghanem, Mehari Taddele Maru, Luigi Narbone, and Carlo Palleschi.
This book provides a comprehensive analysis that breaks down the silos between Middle Eastern countries (MECs) and the Horn of Africa (HOA). It argues that it is impossible to understand the region's trajectory by looking at one side of the Red Sea in isolation and examines interactions between the MECs and the HOA. It seeks to align visions and identify concrete steps toward realizing the vision of a region that, though divided by waters, is united by opportunities.
Somalia Today published an article dated 1 August 2026 titled "AFRICOM Chief Rules Out US Military Base in Somaliland" by Mohamed Bashir.
General Dagvin Anderson, head of the US Africa Command, said in an interview published by the US embassy in Mogadishu on 31 July that "there are no plans to build a base in Somaliland." He added that "US policy is and remains the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Federal Republic of Somalia. That has not changed."
The United States has maintained contact with Somaliland officials and supported development and security programs in the region without recognizing it as a separate state.
The Heritage Institute for Policy Studies published in July 2026 a report titled "State of Somalia 2025."
The report reviews the major political, security, economic, diplomatic, humanitarian, and regional developments that shaped Somalia in 2025. Somalia recorded notable gains in international diplomacy, institutional development, regional integration, and state visibility. It also experienced persistent political polarization, federal-state tensions, humanitarian vulnerability, and unresolved questions surrounding constitutional and electoral processes that continued to challenge state-building efforts.
Somalia demonstrated growing international relevance and achieved several important diplomatic and institutional milestones. Yet progress remained constrained by external interference, including Israel's violation of Somalia's sovereignty through its recognition of Somaliland, alongside political fragmentation, unresolved constitutional questions, persistent insecurity, and recurring humanitarian crises.
AEIs Critical Threats posted on 23 July 2026 an analysis titled "Houthi Blockade in the Red Sea" by Michael DeAngelo, Liam Karr, and Alexsandar Wiebler.
The Iranian-backed Houthi blockade of the south end of the Red Sea has already disrupted shipping in the Red Sea, causing increased costs and transit delays. The Houthi blockade will further increase fuel shortages, negatively impact African countries that rely on Saudi fuel shipments, and strain the global economy.
The International Crisis Group published on 17 July 2026 a commentary titled "As the Horn of Africa Nears Boiling Point, Time for Urgent Diplomacy" by Alan Boswell.
Given the uncertainty about Washington's level of commitment to bring peace to the Horn of Africa, additional Gulf States, the European Union, the United Nations, Norway, and the United Kingdom should step up their engagement.
The International Crisis Group posted on 10 July 2026 a 40-minute podcast titled "Is Ethiopia Sliding Toward a New Tigray War?" with Alan Boswell and Payton Knopf, Dialogue Advisory Group and former U.S. Deputy Special Envoy for the Horn of Africa.
They discuss the background and status of the Pretoria Agreement and the rising risk of renewed war in Ethiopia's Tigray Region. They look at how unresolved disputes over territory, Tigray's federal status, internal divisions, and worsening Ethiopia-Eritrea tensions could push the region back toward war. They also unpack why escalating regional dynamics, including the war in Sudan, could make a renewed conflict even more explosive, why full-scale war is not inevitable, and what practical off ramps still remain.
The Emirates Policy Center published on 7 July 2026 an analysis titled "Ethiopia's Seventh Elections: Challenges of Internal Stability and Repercussions on Regional Politics."
The huge victory by the ruling Prosperity Party in Ethiopia's recent parliamentary elections did not resolve the crisis of political legitimacy, as the electoral process remained characterized by a precarious security environment, inequitable competition, and a significant lack of voter turnout in numerous regions.
The Emirates Policy Center published on 1 July 2026 a paper titled "Between Maritime Access and Recognition: Geopolitical Implications of Rapprochement Between Ethiopia and Somaliland."
The prospect of landlocked Ethiopia securing maritime access through Somaliland highlights the intersection of Addis Ababa's structural need for a maritime outlet and Hargeisa's ambition to strengthen its legitimacy and bargaining power--without pressing for immediate formal recognition.
The most likely scenario in the foreseeable future is the gradual expansion of economic and logistical cooperation between Ethiopia and Somaliland, without sovereign arrangements or formal recognition. While the option of recognition or sovereign maritime privileges remains possible, it is less likely and would require deeper regional and international transformations.
Higher Education Today posted about a month ago a 29-minute podcast titled "Culture and History of Somaliland" hosted by Steven Roy Goodman with Jama Musa Jama, Hargeisa Cultural Centre, and Lee Cassanelli, professor emeritus at the University of Pennsylvania.
This is a positive account filmed in Hargeisa of Somaliland's history and culture, interspersed with video clips of the country.
The Rift Valley Institute recently published a report titled "The New Geopolitics of Eastern Africa."
The British Institute of Eastern Africa, Chatham House, and the Rift Valley Institute convened a group of experts to discuss the ongoing transformation of geopolitics in the Horn of Africa. This paper summarizes their conclusions, noting that the region is experiencing profound multi-decade shifts in its relationship with the wider world.
Fronts, an independent online news source owned by a privately held Czech company, posted on 15 June 2026 a commentary titled "The Egypt-Ethiopia Cold War Is Key to the Horn's Growing Conflicts" by Liam Karr.
The author suggests a "cold war" between Ethiopia and Egypt is a battle for regional dominance, touches nearly every conflict in the Horn of Africa, and is fueling tensions in an already unstable region. Control over Nile waters and landlocked Ethiopia's desire to obtain access to the sea loom large in this cold war.
Horn Diplomat published on 12 June 2026 an article titled "Somaliland Opens New Representative Office in Taiwan as Ties Deepen" by Mohamed Duale.
On June 12, breakaway Somaliland opened the new premises of its Representative Office in Taiwan as officials from both sides pledged to expand cooperation across security, trade, healthcare, and development sectors.
The new office reflected the steady expansion of relations between Somaliland and Taiwan since the two sides established reciprocal representative offices in 2020.
The International Crisis Group posted on 4 June 2026 a 26-minute podcast titled "Tiny Djibouti and Its Prime Real Estate" with Alan Boswell and Samson Abebe Bezabeh, University of Hong Kong.
They discuss Djibouti's role as a "garrison state," how it benefits from hosting foreign military bases, and why its strategic position may be changing as Ethiopia seeks alternative sea access.
The Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies published on 7 May 2026 an analysis titled "The New Scramble: Turkey, Somalia and the Battle for the Red Sea" by Matthew Chandler de Waal.
Turkey has become Somalia's foremost ally. Camp TURKSOM, Ankara's largest overseas military base, has trained thousands of Somali special forces since 2017. More recently, Turkey became engaged in a major project to develop Somalia's deepwater oil reserves.
Turkey is now looking to build a base in the Gulf of Aden at Laas Qoray, a port city that is contested by Somalia and the breakaway government of Somaliland. A base in Laas Qoray would put Turkey in position to join a host of other nations with military bases at the south end of the Red Sea.
