The Economist published on 20 August 2026 an article titled "Somaliland Wants to Help Secure the Red Sea."
Somaliland's president says his country can help secure the Red Sea by offering military bases to global powers along its coastline. Somaliland is prepared to offer both the United States and Israel bases at the port of Berbera.
Saxafi Media posted on 23 August 2026 an interview with me titled "Inside Washington's Somaliland Dilemma: David Shinn Reveals What U.S. Policy Really Means."
Although much of the interview deals with Somaliland, it covers issues throughout the Horn of Africa and beyond, including US support for Somalia sovereignty, Israel's recognition of Somaliland, importance of Ethiopia, the conflict in Sudan. Egypt's role in the region, security in the Red Sea, competition with China, the role of African diasporas, and the contribution of UN agencies and IGAD.
CNBC published on 20 August 2026 an article titled "Somali Pirate Menace Returns as U.S.-Iran War Stokes Regional Chaos and Saps Enforcement Resources" by Aparajita Saxena.
On August 17, pirates seized the cargo vessel Lutuf about four nautical miles off the Somali coast. A month ago, they seized the MT Asana, a Tanzanian-flagged oil and chemical tanker, in the Gulf of Aden. The upsurge in piracy may be driven by drought and food insecurity in Somalia and increased regional instability caused by the war with Iran.
The China Daily Brief posted on 12 August 2026 an article titled "Chinese Navy Dispatches 49th Escort Task Force to Gulf of Aden."
The Chinese People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) dispatched on 12 August its 49th escort task force from a naval port in Sanya, Hainan Province, to the Gulf of Aden and waters of Somalia. It consists of the guided-missile destroyer Kunming, the guided-missile frigate Yueyang, and the supply ship Luomahu. The fleet is equipped with two shipborne helicopters and dozens of special operations personnel.
AEIs Critical Threats Africa File posted on 13 August 2026 an article titled "Somalia--AUSSOM" by Michael DeAngelo.
The African Union Stabilization and Support Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM) has begun an accelerated handoff of responsibility to the Somali National Army. AUSSOM's mission end date is December 2029, but the goal is to complete most of the handoff in 2028. Al-Shabaab will likely exploit any lapse in counterterrorism efforts that might result from this decision.
The Emirates Policy Center published on 13 August 2026 an analysis titled "Trends and Shifts in the Somali Landscape: From Constitutional Dispute to a Crisis of Legitimacy."
Somalia is experiencing one of its most complex political crises since the adoption of the federal system in 2012. These tensions coincide with growing friction between the federal government and federal member states, particularly Puntland.
The analysis concludes that the current governance crisis extends far beyond electoral arrangements or constitutional amendments. Its roots reach into the very foundation of the fragile consensus upon which the federal state has been built in the last decade and a half.
African Arguments published on 11 August 2026 a commentary titled "Somalia: A Government with One Foot Out the Door" by Ismail Abukar, a human rights advocate based in Mogadishu.
A significant percentage of Somali officials are effectively ghost workers who do not come to their offices. Many have foreign passports and dual citizenship. At the same time, remittances from the diaspora have kept Somalia solvent.
The Associated Press published on 12 August 2026 an article titled "Thousands Flee Yearslong Drought in Somalia as Hunger Deepens and Aid Shrinks" by Mohamed Sheikh Nor and Omar Faruk.
About two million people in southern Somalia are facing emergency levels of food insecurity as a result of drought over the past four years. EL Nino conditions are likely to exacerbate the situation by creating flooding during Somalia's October to December rainy season. International food assistance is in short supply.
Responsible Statecraft posted on 12 August 2026 an article titled "How the Egypt-Ethiopia Feud Could Upend Trump's Plans in Africa" by Jonathan Fenton Harvey.
The United States is sending mixed and confusing signals to Egypt, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Sudan, Somalia, and Somaliland on complex relations in the region dealing with allocation of Nile waters and Ethiopia's quest for access to the sea.
The August 2026 issue of Africa Spectrum includes an "Introduction to the Special Issue: Giving in Somali Diaspora Humanitarianism in Africa" by Nauja Kleist and Mark Bardbury.
The articles in this special issue of Africa Spectrum demonstrate that Somali diaspora humanitarian engagement is continuously evolving and comes in many forms. It is influenced by gender, generation, educational background, and socio-economic circumstances.
The issue is unique in that it focuses on the Somali diaspora in a number of African countries and not the diaspora in North America or Europe.
The Somali Public Agenda and Somali Dialogue Platform published in July 2026 a study titled "Navigating Political Transition: Citizens' Views on Elections, Legitimacy, and Governance in Somalia."
This study addresses how citizens understand democratic principles, electoral legitimacy, political mediation, and government accountability by means of a May-June 2026 public opinion poll conducted across Mogadishu and five Federal Member State capitals, reaching 928 respondents.
The analysis examines which democratic principles citizens prioritize, which actors they trust to mediate political disputes, which institutions they trust to manage or oversee elections, and which issues they want political leaders to communicate about more openly.
The findings show that citizens express strong support for democratic reform in principle, but their preferences become more complex when democratic goals are weighed against peace, stability, term limits, press freedom, and public participation.
The Somali Media Network posted on 8 August 2026 a 42-minute podcast with me hosted by Ismail Gorse on the Horn of Africa.
This is a wide-ranging discussion of current issues in the Horn of Africa and US policy with a special focus on Somalia and Somaliland.
This is the full text of the interview by Omar Faruk Osman, Secretary-General of the National Union of Somali Journalists, with General Dagvin R.M. Anderson, the Commander of U.S. Africa Command in Mogadishu and posted on 31 July 2026.
Most of the interview focuses on US-Somali cooperation in combatting al-Shabaab and the Islamic State in Somalia. This is the interview where General Anderson also said, "there are no plans to build a base in Somaliland" and "U.S. policy is, and remains, the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Somalia. That has not changed."
AEIs Critical Threats Africa File posted on 6 August 2026 an article titled "Somalia" by Michael DeAngelo and Aaryaman Shah.
The United States is pursuing an increased dual track engagement with local Somali governments in Puntland and Jubaland together with unilaterally independent Somaliland as it continues to recognize the sovereignty of the central Somali government in Mogadishu.
The Doha, Qatar-based Middle East Council on Global Affairs published in February 2026 an open access E-book titled "The Red Sea: Divided by Water, United by Opportunities" edited by Dalia Ghanem, Mehari Taddele Maru, Luigi Narbone, and Carlo Palleschi.
This book provides a comprehensive analysis that breaks down the silos between Middle Eastern countries (MECs) and the Horn of Africa (HOA). It argues that it is impossible to understand the region's trajectory by looking at one side of the Red Sea in isolation and examines interactions between the MECs and the HOA. It seeks to align visions and identify concrete steps toward realizing the vision of a region that, though divided by waters, is united by opportunities.
Somalia Today published an article dated 1 August 2026 titled "AFRICOM Chief Rules Out US Military Base in Somaliland" by Mohamed Bashir.
General Dagvin Anderson, head of the US Africa Command, said in an interview published by the US embassy in Mogadishu on 31 July that "there are no plans to build a base in Somaliland." He added that "US policy is and remains the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Federal Republic of Somalia. That has not changed."
The United States has maintained contact with Somaliland officials and supported development and security programs in the region without recognizing it as a separate state.
The Heritage Institute for Policy Studies published in July 2026 a report titled "State of Somalia 2025."
The report reviews the major political, security, economic, diplomatic, humanitarian, and regional developments that shaped Somalia in 2025. Somalia recorded notable gains in international diplomacy, institutional development, regional integration, and state visibility. It also experienced persistent political polarization, federal-state tensions, humanitarian vulnerability, and unresolved questions surrounding constitutional and electoral processes that continued to challenge state-building efforts.
Somalia demonstrated growing international relevance and achieved several important diplomatic and institutional milestones. Yet progress remained constrained by external interference, including Israel's violation of Somalia's sovereignty through its recognition of Somaliland, alongside political fragmentation, unresolved constitutional questions, persistent insecurity, and recurring humanitarian crises.
Nanyang Technological University published on 6 July 2026 an article titled "Assessing Ethiopia's Economic Reform and Outlook" by Rafiq Raji.
Ethiopia's economic growth since 2022 has averaged about 8.5 percent and is projected to maintain that rate at least until 2030, assuming there are no catastrophic events such as a war in Tigray region or with Eritrea. Inflation is trending down and Ethiopia has restructured its significant level of debt. The country's exports are doing well.
The Conversation published on 16 July 2026 a discussion summary titled "Africa's Greater Horn Region Is Facing a Looming Polycrisis Fueled by Conflict, Prices, Climate and Disease" by Daniel Maxwell, Alex de Waal, Luka Kuol, Merry Fitzpatrick, and Peter Hailey.
The impacts of a strengthening El Nino and effects of the war in Iran combined with existing prolonged crisis and conflict in the Horn of Africa are leading potentially to a major, multicountry polycrisis.
Aljazeera published on 21 July 2026 an article titled "Who Is Driving Diplomacy in the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea, and Why?"
US senior adviser for Africa, Massad Boulos, recently held meetings in Cairo with the foreign ministers of Somalia and Eritrea as part of an effort to prevent another regional crisis or build a broader diplomatic framework.
Comment: These meetings may well have been routine diplomacy, constituting less than is implied in the Aljazeera lead to the article.
