Somali Public Opinion on Somalia's Political Future

 The Somali Public Agenda and Somali Dialogue Platform published in July 2026 a study titled "Navigating Political Transition: Citizens' Views on Elections, Legitimacy, and Governance in Somalia."

This study addresses how citizens understand democratic principles, electoral legitimacy, political mediation, and government accountability by means of a May-June 2026 public opinion poll conducted across Mogadishu and five Federal Member State capitals, reaching 928 respondents.  

The analysis examines which democratic principles citizens prioritize, which actors they trust to mediate political disputes, which institutions they trust to manage or oversee elections, and which issues they want political leaders to communicate about more openly.

The findings show that citizens express strong support for democratic reform in principle, but their preferences become more complex when democratic goals are weighed against peace, stability, term limits, press freedom, and public participation.

African Key Trends to 2035

The Institute for Security Studies published in August 2017 a policy brief titled "African Futures: Key Trends to 2035" by Julia Bello-Schunemann, Jakkie Cilliers, Zachary Donnenfeld, Ciara Aucoin, and Alex Porter.

The brief looks at demography, economies, governance, development, conflict, technology, and urbanization. Except for issues associated with demography, the paper is stronger on summarizing trends up to the present than looking out to 2035.

What Happened to Presidential Term Limits in Africa?

The Institute for Security Studies (ISS) published on 19 June 2015 a commentary titled "What Happened to the Third-term Debate" by Liesl Louw-Vaudran, ISS consultant.  The AU Summit in South Africa managed to end without any action on the issue of presidential third terms. 

African Voters Strongly Support Presidential Term Limits

Afrobarometer, a pan-African, non-partisan research network, published on 25 May 2015 the results of a survey titled "African Publics Strongly Support Term Limits, Resist Leaders' Efforts to Extend Their Tenure" by Boniface Dulani.

In 34 African countries, about three-quarters of citizens favor limiting presidential mandates to two terms.  Support for term limits has been consistently high over time and is the majority view even in countries that have never had term limits or that have removed term limits from their constitutions.  More educated citizens tend to express greater support for term limits, as do persons with greater exposure to the news media.

Secretary of State Kerry in Africa

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry recently completed a visit to Ethiopia, South Sudan, Angola and the Democratic Republic of the Congo.  The Voice of America's half hour Encounter Program with Carol Castiel reviewed the visit with Richard Downie, deputy director of the Africa program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and me.