Revival of the Belt and Road Initiative in Africa

 Australia's Griffith University and the Green Finance & Development Center in Shanghai published on 18 January 2026 "China Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) Investment Report 2025" by Christoph Nedopil Wang.

Since the beginning of BRI in 2013, the report says Chinese construction projects (profit making opportunities by Chinese construction companies) totaled $837 billion globally while investment projects totaled $561 billion globally.  The figures are based on having an active memorandum of understanding with China at the time of the report.  Energy, mining, and transportation projects top the list.

In 2025, Africa accounted for a significant increase ($61.2 billion) in BRI engagement (construction projects and investment), but most of it was in construction projects (47 percent of global total) and not investment (22 percent of global total).  Nigeria alone accounted for $24.6 billion in construction projects and the Republic of the Congo for another $23.1 billion.  

China's Belt and Road Financing: Implications for Africa

 AidData, a research lab at William and Mary, published in September 2021 a massive study titled "Banking on the Belt and Road: Insights from a New Global Dataset of 13,427 Chinese Development Projects."

The study captures 13,427 projects worth $843 billion in 165 countries from 2000-2017, a period that began before the announcement of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).  

Five key conclusions result from the study:

1.  There was an extraordinary expansion in China's overseas development finance program during the first two decades of the 21st century, most of which was other official financing (OOF) and not overseas development assistance (ODA).  OOF consisted almost entirely of loans and export credits priced at or near market rates.  

2.  China's state-owned commercial banks have assumed an increasingly important role during the BRI.

3.  An increasing level of credit risk have created pressure for stronger repayment safeguards.  Collateralization has become the linchpin of China's implementation of a high-risk, high-reward credit allocation strategy.

4.  The implementation of the BRI has marked an important transition in how China bankrolls infrastructure projects.

5.  Some 35 percent of the BRI infrastructure project portfolio has encountered major implementation problems such as corruption scandals, labor violations, environmental hazards, and public protests.

Africa accounted for 25 percent of the US dollar value of global Chinese official finance from 2000-2017.  Africa received 42 percent of the ODA and 20 percent of the OOF.  The highest African recipients of ODA were Ethiopia ($6.57 billion), Republic of Congo ($4.24 billion), Sudan ($2.57 billion), Ghana ($2.22 billion), Zambia ($2.10 billion), Kenya ($2.03 billion), Cameroon ($1.46 billion), Mozambique ($1.40 billion), Senegal ($1.27 billion), Mali ($1.06 billion), and Cote d'Ivoire ($0.92 billion).  The highest African recipients of OOF were Angola ($40.65 billion), Ethiopia ($8.90 billion), Sudan ($7.85 billion), Kenya ($7.02 billion), and Nigeria ($6.82 billion).   

How China Deals with Bad Debt on Its Loans

The Rhodium Group, an independent China research and advisory firm, published on 29 April 2019 a study titled "New Data on the 'Debt Trap' Question" by Agatha Kratz, Allen Feng, and Logan Wright.

The authors reviewed 40 cases of China's external debt renegotiation with 24 countries, including 12 in Africa. They concluded that the sheer volume of debt renegotiation points to legitimate concerns about the sustainability of China's external lending. Asset seizures, however, are a rare occurrence with the only known case in Sri Lanka and possibly one in Tajikistan. Debt renegotiation usually involves a more balanced outcome between lender and borrower, ranging from extension of loan terms and repayment deadlines to explicit refinancing, and partial or even total debt forgiveness. Debt forgiveness, however, usually represents a mere fraction of the total debt due to China and rarely serves to reduce significantly a country's indebtedness to China.

African countries looked at in this report are Angola, Botswana, Cameroon, Congo, Djibouti, Ethiopia, Ghana, Lesotho, Mozambique, Sudan, Zambia, and Zimbabwe.

Chinese Lending to Africa for Military and Security Purposes

The China Africa Research Initiative posted on 9 April 2019 a blog titled "Chinese Lending to Africa for Military and Domestic Security Purposes" by Jordan Link.

Between 2003 and 2017, China loaned $2.53 billion to 8 African countries for military and national defense purposes. It loaned an additional $1.36 billion for African policing and law and order and $67 million for dual use purposes, totaling $4.56 billion.

Chinese Lending To Africa Supports Growth But Brings Risks

South Africa's Business Report posted on 14 November 2018 an article titled "Moody's: Chinese Lending To Sub-Saharan Africa Can Support Growth, But Brings Risks."

This is a summary of a longer Moody's report that is available for purchase. It notes that Chinese lending to sub-Saharan Africa rose nearly tenfold in the period between 2012 and 2017 as compared to 2001. Most of the lending has been for infrastructure, which supports economic growth, but countries such as Angola, Republic of the Congo, and Zambia are reaching worryingly high levels of interest payments.

China Reassesses Loans to Africa after Venezuela Debacle

Bloomberg published on 29 June 2016 an article titled "Venezuela Mess Prods China to Reassess Africa Lending Spree" by Ting Shi. The threat that Venezuela may default on China's loans is putting pressure on Beijing to reassess how it provides money to commodity-dependent nations in Sub-Saharan Africa where China loaned more than $86 billion between 2000 and 2014.

The China Africa Project run by Eric Olander and Cobus van Staden did a half hour podcast on this subject with Matt Ferchen of the Carnegie-Tsinghua Center in Beijing. Ferchen is an expert on Chinese loans to Venezuela.

What Happened to Presidential Term Limits in Africa?

The Institute for Security Studies (ISS) published on 19 June 2015 a commentary titled "What Happened to the Third-term Debate" by Liesl Louw-Vaudran, ISS consultant.  The AU Summit in South Africa managed to end without any action on the issue of presidential third terms. 

Civil society and emerging powers in Africa

Fahamu established the Emerging Powers in Africa Initiative in 2008 in order to obtain a better understanding of the comparative impact and engagement of emerging powers in Africa on issues dealing with social justice and civil society. Much of its research has focused on China and India.

It just published a major series of articles (PDF) on the following topics:

• Chinese and Brazilian engagement in Angola’s national effort to build houses.
• Comparative African perspectives on the trade relations and practices of transnational telecommunications corporations of China and South Africa in Nigeria.
• Comparative analysis of China and South Africa in the Democratic Republic of the Congo on investment practices in the extractive industries and its environmental and social impact.
• Comparative analysis of the commitment of Chinese and South African companies to corporate social responsibility in Nigeria’s telecommunication sector.

An analysis of China’s $9 billion deal with the DRC

Global Witness, which campaigns to prevent natural resource-related conflict, corruption and human rights abuses, published in March 2011 an analysis of the controversial $9 billion deal between China and the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

The Chinese partners promised to provide $9 billion to finance the nationwide construction of roads, railways, hospitals, schools and dams, as well as mine development.

In exchange, the Congolese government pledged to provide the Chinese companies with up to 10 million tons of copper and hundreds of thousands of tons of cobalt from mines in the southeastern province of Katanga.

The project has created a controversy because very little information is available publicly about the financial aspects of the deal. There is no information about the sales prices of minerals and a lack of information on what infrastructure is to be built and at what cost. The project promises a 19 percent internal rate of return, but does not explain how this will be calculated.

Quotes in two more Christian Science Monitor articles on Pres. Obama in Africa

I am quoted today in two new pieces in the Christian Science Monitor by Drew Hinshaw. There relevant quote from the piece "Obama in Africa: Big on inspiration, short on specifics" is:

"It was an important speech and it's by far the most comprehensive statement he's made on Africa, but it still leaves a lot to the imagination," David Shinn, former ambassador to Ethiopia, said. "He didn't really give a very good picture as to what the US is going to do in the Congo, or Somalia, or Sudan."

In "Africans reflect on Obama's 'tough love' message" I am quoted as saying the following:

"I think the main thing he wanted to do was to put the Africans on notice that its time to stop complaining about their problems as emanating from outside, and to realize that for the most part, their problems are of their own making now," says David Shinn, former US Ambassador to Ethiopia. "I think it came across loud and clear."

Image: President Barack Obama and first lady Michelle Obama (2nd l.) and their daughter Sasha (l.) take part in a departure ceremony at the airport in Accra Saturday. Jim Young/Reuters. Source: CSM.

Pres. Obama lays out general Africa themes, but we still need the details.

I participated in the BBC radio "Focus on Africa" program today concerning the visit to Ghana by President Obama. Most of the participants focused on the president's call to Africans to take control of their own future and the need for good governance. I noted that he also emphasized a willingness by the United States to support development that offers real benefits to more people, especially the improvement of agriculture and food security. Although he did not use the term in his speech in Ghana, he has called elsewhere for a green revolution in Africa. He also stated that the United States would continue the effort of President Bush to fight HIV/AIDS, malaria, and TB in Africa. He added to this list the eradication of polio and neglected tropical disease. Finally, he stated that the United States would step up its efforts to prevent and mitigate conflict in Africa, noting in particular the on-going problems in Darfur, Somalia, and the Congo. When asked what was left out of the speech, I suggested that I missed more emphasis on private American investment in Africa, as this could provide the most positive impact on improving African economies.