Somaliland Election Complicates Relations with China and Taiwan

 The Pan African Review published on 21 November 2024 a commentary titled "What Somaliland's 2024 Elections Mean for the China-Taiwan Rivalry in the Horn" by Peter Kagwanja, Africa Policy Institute and former advisor to the government of Kenya.  

Somaliland's drive for international recognition and its MOU with Ethiopia that traded Ethiopian diplomatic recognition for a military facility in Somaliland, contributed to the recent electoral defeat of President Muse Bihi Abdi and the Kulmiye party and the victory of opposition candidate Abdirahmin Mohamed Abdullahi and his Waddani party.  President Abdi's close ties with Taiwan and Taipei's financial support for his reelection campaign added to the electoral backlash.

China has criticized the Somaliland-Taiwan relationship from the beginning and emphasized acceptance of the one China principle.  In turn, it adopted a one Somalia policy and accused Taiwan of undermining Somalia's sovereignty and territorial integrity.  The election of President Abdullahi in Somaliland tilts the balance of power in the Horn of Africa in favor of China.  An added complication to this development is the predilection of the incoming Trump administration to favor diplomatic recognition of Somaliland.  

China-Africa Science and Technology Collaboration

 Springer published in 2024 an open access book titled "China-Africa Science, Technology and Innovation Collaboration" edited by Mammo Muchie, Angathevar Baskaran, and Mingfeng Tang.

The book is based on papers presented at a conference with the same title sponsored by the Chinese embassy in South Africa.  About half of the authors are Chinese.  The preface comments that "Africa must also learn from the great success China has achieved.  There is a lesson Africa must learn how China managed to deal with and respond to external powers." 

The chapters cover the following sectors:

--China-Africa Collaboration to Higher Education.

--China-Africa Research Collaboration and Training.

--China-Africa Collaboration in Agriculture, Food Security and Environmental Management.

--China-Africa Collaboration in Telecommunications and Space.

--Evolution of China-Africa Collaboration in Science, Technology and Innovation.

--China-Africa Collaboration in Digital Technologies.

--China-Africa Collaboration in Finance and Renewable Energy.

--China-Africa Collaboration in Health Sector.

--China-Africa Collaboration in Manufacturing.

The Future of China-Africa Relations

 The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace published on 21 November 2024 an analysis titled "What FOCAC 2024 Reveals About the Future of China-Africa Relations" by Christian-Geraud Neema.

China called for modernization in Africa or the right to industrialize according to one's own background without being forced to follow Western norms.  China is promoting a variety of governance models and approaches to development and modernization that undercut the Western-led international order, norms, and values.  

China is positioning itself as Africa's development partner and international ally.  But there is no guarantee China's approach will be fairer or more advantageous for Africa.  So far, the United States has not responded with a clear counter strategy.

Review of our China-Africa Book

 The November 2024 issue of the African Studies Quarterly includes a review of China's Relations with Africa: A New Era of Strategic Engagement by David Shinn and Joshua Eisenman published in 2023 by Columbia University Press.  Phill Wilcox of Bielefeld University did the review.  

China-Africa Cooperation in Critical Minerals

 Development Reimagined published in November 2024 a study titled "Africa-China Cooperation in Critical Minerals: Centering Africa's Development in a Global Race."

Critical minerals account for almost 20 percent of Africa's total exports and contribute 28 percent of its GDP.  By 2022, critical minerals represented about 24 percent of China's total FDI stock in Africa.  Chinese mining companies account for 8 percent of Africa's total mining output and China ranks 5th in terms of mine ownership.  China has substantial stakes in Africa's lithium, copper, and cobalt mining projects--key minerals for EV batteries.  

It is essential that Africa develops strategies to protect and maximize the benefits from its critical minerals.  Despite the significant role mining plays in Africa-China relations, Development Reimagined says China should specify and enhance its commitments to the minerals sector to include geoscience and geology cooperation, research and development in mining technologies, human resource training, infrastructure development, value addition, and supply chain upgrading.  

Will African Countries Benefit from China's Elimination of Tariffs?

 The Voice of America published on 14 November 2024 an article titled "Analysts Skeptical about African Impact of China's Zero-tariff Offer" by Saibal Dasgupta.

China announced that it is eliminating tariffs on goods from least developed countries, including 33 in Africa.  This may not have much impact, however, because of non-tariff barriers imposed by China and the inability of many countries in Africa to supply the quality and scale required of the Chinese market.  

Are African Governments Shaping the China-Africa Policy Agenda?

 The LSE blog posted on 21 November 2024 a commentary titled "African Governments Are Shaping the Future of the China-Africa Relations" by Tom Baxter, Dialogue Earth, and Yuezhou Yang, LSE-Fudan Global Public Policy Hub.

The authors argue that increasingly Africa is able to guide the China-Africa policy agenda.

Comment: While there may be some modest movement in this direction, there is precious little meaningful evidence in this commentary to make the case that African governments are shaping the future of China-Africa relations. 

Africa Policy in a Second Trump Administration

 The Jerusalem Strategic Tribune published in November 2024 a commentary titled "Africa in the Second Trump Administration" by J. Peter Pham.

Pham, who held key roles dealing with Africa in the first Trump administration, lays out several principles and what one might expect in the second Trump administration.  Pham will likely occupy an important position on Africa in the upcoming Trump administration.  

US-China Artificial Intelligence Competition in the Global South

 The Atlantic Council published on 20 November 2024 an analysis titled "Assessing US-China Tech Competition in the Global South" by Hanna Dohmen.

The Global South is enthusiastic about using AI applications.  The US has most of the world's leading AI firms and applications.  China's approach to collaborating with the Global South on AI is significantly different than that of the United States.  China is promoting a centralized regulatory framework that does not align with that of the US and its allies.  

The US needs to offer a compelling vision for AI that resonates with the needs of developing nations while upholding values that ensure a fair and inclusive future.  

Chinese Company Wins Moroccan Rail Project

 Global Construction Review published on 18 November 2024 an article titled "Chinese Firm Beats French Rival to Casablanca High-speed Contract" by David Rogers.

China Overseas Engineering Corporation won the contract for the Casablanca extension of the high-speed rail line between Tangiers and Kenitra to Marrakech via Rabat.  The bid by the Chinese company was 21 percent lower than the one by its French competitor.  

Chiinese Surveillance Projects in African Cities

 The Center for Strategic and International Studies published on 18 November 2024 a commentary titled "China's Smart Cities in Africa: Should the United States Be Concerned?" by Jason Warner and Toyasi Alibade.  

Chinese surveillance technology is in wide use in African cities governed in some cases by authoritarian regimes, which raises questions about its abuse.  Nine African countries currently use Chinese-backed "smart city" surveillance systems.  

Communist Party of China Relations with African Political Parties

 The South China Morning Post published on 19 November 2024 an article titled "Do the Communist Party's Ties in Africa Pay Economic Dividends for China?" by Jevans Nyabiage.  

The Communist Party of China has interacted for decades with political parties in Africa.  It is not clear, however, whether closer party-to-party relations are the primary driver for more Chinese investment and funding in an African country.  

Russia Vetoes UN Security Council Resolution on Ceasefire in Sudan

 Reuters published on 18 November 2024 an article titled "Russia Vetoes UN Security Council Action on Sudan War" by Daphne Psaledakis and David Brunnstrom.

Russia vetoed a UN Security Council resolution that called on warring parties to cease hostilities immediately and ensure the delivery of humanitarian aid.  All other countries of the 15-member UNSC voted in favor of the resolution drafted by the UK and Sierra Leone.

Chinese Communist Party Diplomacy in Africa

 Megatrends Afrika published in October 2024 a policy brief titled "Pragmatic, Strategic and Wide-Reaching: The CCP's Party Diplomacy in Africa" by Christine Hackenesch and Julia Bader.  

The policy brief analyses recent patterns and motives of China's party diplomacy in Africa.  It finds that the CCP maintains close ties with the main ruling parties in southern Africa and in some countries in East Africa, while engaging with a broad range of parties in countries in North Africa.  Beijing's party diplomacy in Africa seeks to promote China's core foreign policy interests, advance an alternative narrative on global China, and normalize China's authoritarian system.

Video on Houthi Red Sea Attacks

 India's News9 posted on 15 November 2024 a two-minute video titled "Red Sea Tensions: Houthis Attack US Destroyers, Face Retaliation; 10 Killed."  

The video summarizes video coverage of Houthi attacks on international shipping in the Red Sea, including the recent unsuccessful attack on two US destroyers.  

Significant Underreporting of Deaths in Sudan

 The London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine posted on 12 November 2024 a study titled "War-Time Mortality in Sudan: A Capture-Recapture Analysis."

The civil war in Sudan has resulted in a higher death rate than previously reported.  The number of intentional-injury deaths in Khartoum alone surpass those estimated for the entire country in the first 14 months of the war.  This suggests extensive underreporting of a severe mortality impact in Khartoum and likely across Sudan.

Somaliland Election

 The Voice of America published on 15 November 2024 an article titled "Western Diplomats Urge Somaliland Leaders to Accept Election Results" by Harun Maruf.

Although the ballot counting process is not finished, Western diplomats who monitored the 13 November election in Somaliland urged the three presidential candidates and their supporters to accept the results.  The observers said the election was peaceful although polling stations in some parts of Somaliland did not open because of conflict.  

Africa and the Trump Administration

 The National Interest published on 15 November 2024 a commentary titled "Donald Trump Can't Ignore Africa" by Lilly Harvey, American Foreign Policy Council.  

Critical of both the first Trump administration and the Biden administration's inattention to Africa, the author argues for a more robust US policy toward the continent in the second Trump administration because of the growing importance of the 54 countries that constitute the region.

Competing with China for Africa's Critical Minerals

 The European Council on Foreign Relations published on 7 November 2024 a paper titled "Material World: How Europe Can Compete with China in the Race for Africa's Critical Minerals" by Sarah Logan.

The author argues the European Union must enhance support to European companies to invest in securing access to critical raw materials.  This should include new financial incentives and measures to protect against China manipulating prices on international markets. 

Nigeria Signs Major Gas Deal with Chinese Company

 The Associated Press published on 13 November 2024 an article titled "Nigeria Signs $1.2 Billion Deal with Chinese State-owned Company to Revamp Key Gas Plant" by Dyepkazah Shibayan.

Nigeria signed a $1.2 billion deal with Chinese state-owned CNCEC and BFI Group to revitalize a gas processing facility.  The deal is intended to revive the 135 million standard cubic feet gas processing facility at the Aluminum Smelter Company of Nigeria.  

Houthi Rebels in Yemen Expand Ties with Somali Terrorist Group and Russia

 The New York-based Soufan Center published on 5 November 2024 an article titled "Houthis Continue Regional and Global Expansion, Networking with Terror Groups and State Sponsors of Terrorism."

Houthi rebels in Yemen have extended their operational links to the al-Qaeda-affiliated al-Shabaab terrorist group in Somalia and al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula.  There is also growing cooperation between the Houthis and Russia.

Africa-India Ties: Meeting Expectations?

 The Diplomat published on 11 November 2024 a commentary titled "Africa-India Ties: The Continent's Next Big Relationship or Over-Hyped?" by Barnaby Joseph Dye, King's College London, and Punkhuri Kumar, Imperial College London.  

The authors argue that the Africa-India relationship is not yet living up to expectations. Considerable barriers are preventing opportunities from being realized.  This will only change when, or if, New Delhi is able to increase governmental capacity to boost political ties and development cooperation. 

Upcoming Event: New Perspectives on China and Africa

 Ohio State's East Asian Studies Center and Center for African Studies, in conjunction with Georgetown University's Walsh School of Foreign Service Africa-China Initiative and George Washington University's East Asia National Resource Center are hosting on 15 November 2024 an event titled "New Perspectives on China and Africa" from 10:30 AM to 2:30 PM Eastern Standard Time.  Participants may attend in person or via Zoom.  

Speakers are:

--China-Africa Security Engagement Since COVID-19 by David Shinn

--Built Higher, Dug Deeper: The Effect on Chinese Debt Financing on African Infrastructure Coverage by Jyhong Hwang

--The Evolution of Chinese Soft Power in Africa: Implications for Technology, African Languages and Cultures in Africa and the Diaspora by Phiwokuhle Mnyandu

--China in Africa, Environmental Governance and Civil Society: The Case of the Kua Forest in Burkina Faso by Asma Amina Belem

--China's Relational Power in Africa: Beijing's "New Type of Party-to-Party Relations" by Joshua Eisenman

Russia Helps Houthi Rebels with Attacks on Red Sea Shipping

 Foreign Policy posted on 7 November 2024 an article titled "Russia Is Running an Undeclared War on Western Shipping" by Elisabeth Braw.  

Russia has been providing Yemen's Houthi rebels with targeting information for their attacks on international shipping in the Red Sea.  The Houthis exempt from attack ships affiliated with Russia and China.  

New Trends in Chinese Financing in Africa

 The UK-based Overseas Development Institute (ODI) published in October 2024 a study titled "China's Creditor Diversification in Africa" by Tianyi Wu, Oxford University, and Yunnan Chen, ODI.

China's overseas lending is evolving and diversifying.  Financing is becoming less concessional and more targeted to commercial sectors in energy and mining.  Going forward, commercial creditors are expected to increasingly focus on infrastructure sectors with clear and immediate revenue potential.