Choosing Peace in the Horn of Africa

 An Africanist Perspective posted on 27 February 2026 a commentary titled "Conflict in the Horn of Africa Isn't Inevitable.  People Can Choose Peace" by Ken Opalo.  

The fundamental drivers of conflict in the Horn of Africa are domestic.  Once rebellions start, they tend to acquire lives of their own.  A neighborhood of weak states with porous borders contributes to the problem, making it easy for regional rivals and foreign governments to interfere.  

Too many people in the Horn are convinced that organized violence is a legitimate response to losing in the political arena.  That has to change before there will be peace.  

Sudan/South Sudan: Abyei Climate, Peace and Security Fact Sheet

 The Norwegian Institute of International Affairs and SIPRI published in December 2025 a report titled "Abyei: Climate, Peace and Security Fact Sheet."

Abyei's contested status, its weak governance, and elite-driven politics continue to fuel insecurity.  Increasing climate variability undermines food security and livelihood activities, particularly livestock and seasonal pastoralism.  Intensifying seasonal hazards, such as floods, drive displacement and worsen the humanitarian crisis in Abyei.

African Union Seeks to Harmonize Strategy with China

 The African Union posted on 1 December 2025 a news release titled "African Union Permanent Mission to China Convenes Strategic Retreat to Enhance Alignment, Coordination, and Implementation of the FOCAC Commitments and Agenda 2063."

The African Union Permanent Mission to China and the African group of ambassadors in China organized on 2-3 December 2025 a session to review the FOCAC Action Plan 2025-2027 and coordinate it with the AU's Agenda 2063.  The African side expressed a desire to focus on promotion of industrialization, mineral cooperation, infrastructure development, agricultural modernization, food security, and pharmaceuticals.

Waging Peace in Ethiopia's Tigray Region

 Ethiopia Insight published on 19 November 2025 a commentary titled "Waging Peace in Tigray, a Land Haunted by War" by Mohammedawel Hagos, Worabe University.

As the Pretoria Agreement unravels, the path forward in Tigray Region is threatened not just by the tension but by a political culture still in the grip of a stifling party-state and collective trauma.  The author calls for internal Tigrayan reconciliation as the only route to a peaceful future.  

Washington Post Editorial on Sudan

 The Washinton Post published on 30 September 2025 an editorial titled "As the World Ignores Sudan's Suffering, America Has Tools to End It."

The editorial argues that Washington is in a position to end the civil war in Sudan if it chooses to do so.  It concludes that "President Donald Trump wants to be known as a peacemaker.  Using his leverage to help force a peace deal to end this catastrophic conflict, and restoring Sudan's democratic process, would significantly strengthen his case for the Nobel Peace Prize."

China Sees Economic Development as Solution to Horn of Africa Conflicts

 The South China Morning Post published on 4 August 2025 an article titled "China Pledges Support for Peaceful Development in Horn of Africa" by Jevans Nyabiage.  

China's Horn of Africa special envoy Xue Bing told participants at the 3rd Horn of Africa Conference on Peace and Development held in Uganda that Beijing promotes economic development as a solution to resolving conflict in the region.  

China's Third Horn of Africa Conference on Peace and Development

 China-Africa Security Radar published on 3 August 2025 an article titled "China in the Horn of Africa."

Uganda hosted on 29 August the 3rd Conference on Peace and Development with attendance by officials from Eritrea, Ethiopia, Djibouti, Kenya, Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan, and China's Special Envoy for the Horn of Africa Xue Bing.  China provided its analysis of the Horn of Africa's security challenges. 

Comment:  As with the previous two conferences, this appears to have been a talk shop with no tangible programs agreed upon for actually resolving conflict in the Horn of Africa.  

President of Guinea Bissau Comments on White House Meeting, China, and Russia

 The Atlantic Council published on 11 July 2025 an article titled "Guinea-Bissau's President on His Meeting with Trump, Relations with Russia and China, and Whether He Will Accept US Deportees" by Katherine Golden.  

President Umaro Sissoco Embalo, who met President Trump with four other African presidents at the White House, subsequently noted that he also met with the presidents of China and Russia.  Embalo expressed the desire for more American investment and said now is not the right time for the West to end the battle against terrorism in Africa.

China's Development First Approach Hits Setbacks in South Sudan

 The China-Africa Security Radar posted on 30 June 2025 an analysis titled "Strategic Illusions: How China's Development-first Approach Undermines Its Security Aims in South Sudan" by Felix Brender. 

South Sudan tests the boundaries of Beijing's doctrine that development is the key to peace and political stability.  South Sudan demonstrates why development and security cannot be separated.

DOGE Fires US Institute of Peace Washington Staff

 The New York Times published on 29 March 2025 an article titled "Many at U.S. Institute of Peace Fired as Trump Seeks Nonprofit's End" by Aishvarya Kavi.  

Elon Musk's DOGE fired on 28 March nearly all of the US Institute of Peace's (USIP) staff members in the United States.  DOGE plans to "relocate" international staff by 9 April.  USIP is effectively closed, although court cases will follow.  

The Washington Post published on 29 March 2025 an article titled "DOGE Fires Nearly All Staff at U.S. Institute of Peace Headquarters" by Abigail Hauslohner and Derek Hawkins.  

This account provides some additional detail on this development.

DOGE Invades US Institute of Peace

 This is a short clip from the 19 March 2025 Rachel Maddow Show on MSNBC concerning the invasion and closure of the US Institute of Peace.  

The US Institute of Peace is an independent, non-profit agency created by the US Congress to host programs and fund research designed to reduce conflict around the world.  For whatever reason (or perhaps there is no reason), DOGE decided to forcibly shut it down.  

Comment:  I have attended many events over the past 25 years at USIP and never witnessed one that in any way could be considered contrary to the foreign policy interests of the administration occupying the White House at the time. One has to wonder what is going on in Washington.   

US Urges Ethiopia and Eritrea to Work Together

 The US Department of State issued a statement on 12 December 2023 titled "23rd Anniversary of the Algiers Agreement between the Governments of Ethiopia and Eritrea."

On the 23rd anniversary of the Algiers peace agreement between Ethiopia and Eritrea, the US encouraged Ethiopia and Eritrea to respect the territorial integrity of both countries and "to work together, in the spirit of the peace they forged, toward a more stable and prosperous region."

Comment:  This appears to be a subtle (maybe too subtle) warning to Ethiopia not to attempt to gain access to the sea through the use of force and to Eritrea to remove its remaining troops from Tigray Region of Ethiopia.  

Somalia: Climate and Security Fact Sheet

 The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute published in September 2023 a study titled "Climate, Peace and Security Fact Sheet: Somalia (2023)" by Kheira Tarif, Asha Ali, Kyungmee Kim, Thor Olav Iversen, Minoo Koefoed, and Katongo Seyuba.  

The fact sheet examines the convergence of climate change and violent conflict in Somalia.  It offers recommendations for the international community to address these issues.  

Civil Society Trying to Make Sudan Better

 The Council on Foreign Relations blog posted on 25 September 2023 a commentary titled "Sudan's Civil Society Laying the Groundwork for Sustained Peace" by Entisar Abdelsadig, Search for Common Ground.  

In spite of the on-going violence in Sudan, local communities and civil society are working hard to support internally displaced persons and create an environment for peace.  

Climate Change and Conflict in the Horn of Africa

 The Heritage Institute published in September 2023 conference proceedings titled "Climate Change and Conflict in the Horn: Challenges, Responses and New Mandates."

No challenge is more daunting in the Horn of Africa than climate change.  This document brings together 15 papers that aid in the understanding of climate change and the impact it has on livelihoods, conflicts, and understanding the way forward in the Somali context.  

Improving the Prospects for Peace in South Sudan

 The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute published in June 2023 a major report titled "Improving the Prospects for Peace in South Sudan: Spotlight on Measurement" by Marie Riquier.

The report analyzes the dynamics of peace and conflict and how they impact the contribution of World Food Program (WFP) efforts to improve the prospects for peace in South Sudan.  The report explores how current monitoring systems, internal processes, and data can be adapted to capture WFP's contribution to improving prospects for peace.

Can China Broker Peace in Sudan?

 The Diplomat published on 9 May 2023 a commentary titled "Can China Broker Peace in Sudan?" by Matai Muon, University of Oxford, and Brian Wong, Balliol College, Oxford.  

The authors argue that China could hold the key to any future peace in Sudan, but caveats limit the extent to which Beijing can play a constructive role: (1)  China's long-standing preference to steer clear of internal, civil strife in conflict-prone nations; (2) China's diminishing socioeconomic and political interests within Sudan; and (3) the complex geopolitical nature of the conflict.  

US Sanctions on Foreigners Whose Actions Threaten Peace and Security of Sudan

 The White House issued on 4 May 2023 an "Executive Order Imposing Sanctions on Certain Persons Destabilizing Sudan and Undermining the Goal of a Democratic Transition."

President Biden in an executive order detailed reasons for imposing sanctions on foreign persons determined by the Secretary of the Treasury, in consultation with the Secretary of State, for actions or policies that threaten the peace, security, or stability of Sudan.  The executive order does not identify any individual by name but offers a wide range of reasons for potentially sanctioning offending individuals.

The Hill published on 5 May 2023 an article titled "Biden Expands Ability to Sanction In Response to Violence in Sudan" by Brett Samuels.

The article offers some background on President Biden's executive order.  

Sudan's Conflict Is a Test for China's Peacemaking Skills

 The South China Morning Post published on 18 April 2023 an article titled "Violence in Sudan a Test for China's Ambitions in Africa: Analysts" by Jevans Nyabiage.  

China has significant, albeit declining, economic interests in Sudan and stands with the rest of the international community to lose them.  While China has called for an end to the fighting and encouraged dialogue among the warring factions, it has otherwise been surprisingly quiet on the conflict.  

An Analysis of China's Global Security Initiative

 The Peace Research Institute Frankfurt (PRIF) blog posted on 2 March 2023 a commentary titled "China's New Global Security Initiative: A Rising Power Spreads Its Wings" by Pascal Abb, senior researcher at PRIF.

China announced its Global Security Initiative (GSI) at the 2022 Boao Forum for Asia, a Chinese-sponsored multilateral security conference.  In February 2023, China issued a concept paper that added some detail concerning the initiative.  Four ideas highlight the GSI.

First, the GSI's agenda is global in scope.

Second, the GSI is based on a very wide-ranging understanding of security characterized as comprehensive national security.

Third, the GSI establishes a strong connection between peace and development.

Fourth, the GSI makes a clear divide between US and Western normative approaches to security and China's approach, which opposes hegemonism, unilateralism, protectionism, and a Cold War mentality.