Somali Public Opinion on Somalia's Political Future

 The Somali Public Agenda and Somali Dialogue Platform published in July 2026 a study titled "Navigating Political Transition: Citizens' Views on Elections, Legitimacy, and Governance in Somalia."

This study addresses how citizens understand democratic principles, electoral legitimacy, political mediation, and government accountability by means of a May-June 2026 public opinion poll conducted across Mogadishu and five Federal Member State capitals, reaching 928 respondents.  

The analysis examines which democratic principles citizens prioritize, which actors they trust to mediate political disputes, which institutions they trust to manage or oversee elections, and which issues they want political leaders to communicate about more openly.

The findings show that citizens express strong support for democratic reform in principle, but their preferences become more complex when democratic goals are weighed against peace, stability, term limits, press freedom, and public participation.

Africa Youth Survey: Perceptions of China and US

 The Ichikowitz Family Foundation just published its massive African Youth Survey 2026.  It held face-to-face interviews with about 5,000 Africans aged 18-24 from 16 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa.  

It covers many issues, but the focus here is perceptions of China and the United States.  African youth see China (79 percent) and the United States (81 percent) as the most influential foreign actors, although China's influence is seen as somewhat more positive.

The survey looked at the influence of the US, China, Brazil, EU, UK, Germany, France, India, and Russia.  The only country whose influence was seen as less positive than the United States (85 percent) was Russia (83 percent).  

About 3 in 5 youth are optimistic about Africa's future during the Trump administration, especially on military support and security.  Just under half believe the closure of USAID will negatively impact their country, with healthcare and disease prevention seen as the areas most affected.  

China and India are increasingly viewed as more favorable partners than the United States, a sentiment shaped in part by the return of the Trump administration.  

Sudan's Peace Process Is Trying to End the Wrong War

 African Arguments posted on 21 July 2026 a commentary titled "Sudan's Peace Process Is Negotiating a War That No Longer Exists" by Ezzat Khairi, a Sudan political analyst.

Diplomatic assumptions for ending the war in Sudan remain where they were in April 2023.  Peace initiatives approach Sudan as a two-sided conflict between a national army and a paramilitary rebellion.  That model no longer fits the war.  The Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) now contain armed movements, tribal formations, ideological brigades, local defense groups, and commanders with their own constituencies and expectations of the postwar order.  The leaders of the SAF and RSF do not fully control the coalitions supporting them.

Is the West Losing Out in the Seychelles?

 The Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies published on 23 July 2026 an analysis titled "Losing Control of the West's Longstanding Interests in Seychelles" by Wojciech Pawlus.

The author suggests that the West is losing out in the democratic Indian Ocean archipelago of Seychelles to India, China, Russia, and the Gulf States.  He believes the current government is becoming more autocratic and urges Washington, Brussels, London, and Paris to reach out before it is too late.

Ethiopia: Addis Standard Receives 2026 Democracy Award

The U.S. National Endowment for Democracy posted on 22 June 2026 a news release titled "NED Announces Recipients of the 2026 Democracy Award."

The Addis Standard received the award for its "high-impact independent reporting" that "has brought vital facts to light on underreported conflict situations, despite severe restrictions, state repression, and even targeted attacks."

Zambia's Reasons for Cancelling Major Human Rights Summit

 Just Security published on 2 June 2026 a commentary titled "In Addition to Chinese Pressure, a Backsliding Democracy May Explain Zambia's Decision to Cancel a Major Human Rights Summit" by Jane Munga and Steve Feldstein.

Days before 2,600 human rights defenders, technologists, and policymakers were expected in Lusaka, Zambia, on April 30, the Zambian government called off RightsCon, the world's largest conference on digital rights.  

According to the summit organizers, the cancellation was due to foreign interference from China "because Taiwanese civil society participants were planning to join us in person."  But a closer look reveals a more complicated picture linked to Zambia's democratic decline and more repressive policies.  

The Legacy of Russia's Wagner Group in Africa

 Nigeria's The Authority published on 20 February 2026 an article titled "As Russia Takes Over the Wagner Group: Implications for Africa" by Ipole Amajama.  

The government of the Russian Federation has taken over the Wagner Group under the guidance of the Foreign Intelligence Service.   As a result, it has become part of the state-led strategy of influence and power projection.   Much of its effort in Africa is focused on a media campaign of disinformation.  

Taiwan Exercises Soft Power in Somaliland

 Saxafi Media published on 28 January 2026 an article titled "Soft Power with Somaliland: How Taiwan Is Shaping Influence Through Partnership, Not Pressure."

The article reprints an editorial from the Taipei Times, which underscores the soft power diplomacy that Taiwan is pursuing in Somaliland, where Taipei has established a liaison office.  

Trump Administration's National Security Strategy and Africa

 The Foreign Policy Research Institute published on 6 January 2026 an analysis titled "The Africa Blind Spot: The US National Security Strategy and the Risks of Retreat" by Christopher Faulkner and Raphael Parens.  

The Trump Administration's National Security Strategy document represents a significant shift in how the United States will approach Africa in the near term.  It reflects a preference for transactionalism, driven by the president's pursuit of the Nobel Peace Prize.  

The limited discussion devoted to Africa (about a half a page) does not inherently reflect a lack of interest in the continent.  Instead, it demonstrates that the administration's interest in Africa will be constrained, selective, and dependent on what Africa can offer in an increasingly competitive world.  This effectively constitutes strategic disengagement.

The authors conclude that navigating between selective engagement and strategic retreat will not likely reduce the pressures that will draw the United States to the continent.  Instead, it risks deferring engagement, ensuring that future interventions, when they become unavoidable, are costlier and less effective.  

Ten African Security Trends in 2025

 The Africa Center for Strategic Studies published in December 2025 an infographic titled "Ten African Security Trends from 2025 in Graphics."

The paper covers the following issues:

--Sudan Fragmentation Strains Region

--Militant Islamist Group Momentum

--Impunity and Abuses of Power

--China and Russia Expand Foothold

--Growing Gulf Actor Competition

--Escalated Fighting in the DRC

--Regional Instability Impacts Nigeria

--Evolving Warfare Technology

--Urbanization and Youth Protests

--Progress toward Agenda 2063

Ethiopia: Rethinking Tigray Region's Democratic Path

 Ethiopia Insight published on 3 December 2025 a commentary titled "When Liberty Is Misused: Rethinking Tigray's Democratic Path" by Gidey Amare, a public servant in the healthcare sector.

Infighting and factional battles are monopolizing political energy in Tigray Region.  Those advocating democratic renewal are preparing for it by dismantling rather than cultivating the political culture required to maintain it.

The author argues that the current trend in Tigray requires a political shift.  Political parties must end all forms of character assassination.  The political debate should pivot to structured policy discussions. Civil society and the media must take responsibility for shaping political discourse.  Political leaders must be willing to engage with their ideological opponents.  Political parties must build grassroots support and demonstrate a competence to govern.  

Interview on Multipolarity and US Africa Policy

 The international press agency Pressenza published on 15 November 2025 my interview titled "Obama, Biden and Trump: Changing U.S. Policy towards Africa" moderated by Kester Kenn Klomegah.  

The interview focused on the impact in Africa of a multipolar world and the approach towards Africa of President Obama, Biden, and Trump.  

Modern Diplomacy posted the same interview on 16 November 2025.

Seychelles, Election, India, and China

 Strategic Horizons included in its Fall 2025 issue an article titled "Seychelles at a Crossroads: Democracy, Development, and the Geopolitical Chessboard" by Achala Gunasekara-Rockwell.  

The primary focus of the article is the internal situation in Seychelles and the 2025 presidential elections that occurred after publication.  There was no outright winner in the election as a candidate must win more than 50 percent of the vote.  Opposition candidate Patrick Herminie received 48.8 percent of the vote while the incumbent, Wavel Ramkalawan, garnered 46.4 percent.  A runoff election will take place from October 9-11.  

A subtheme in the article is the role of Seychelles in great power competition, especially involving China and India.  A small state like Seychelles, strategically located in the Indian Ocean, must navigate the shifting tectonics of great power competition.  The author concludes that Seychelles "ability to assert its sovereignty while deftly managing the competing pressures of China and India is a masterclass in small-state agency.  Seychelles' refusal to allow itself to become a pawn in Beijing's Maritime Silk Road strategy or New Delhi's counterbalancing efforts speaks to its determination to prioritize national interests over external agendas."

More Commentary on Secession of Ethiopia's Tigray Region

 Ethiopia Insight published on 13 August 2025 a commentary titled "Ethiopia's Tigray Must Rebuild Before It Considers Breaking Away" by Mohammedawel Hagos, Worabe University.

The author concluded that the secession of Tigray Region "undertaken hastily, without a democratic mandate or the requisite civic institutions, cannot be regarded as an authentic realization of freedom."

Tigray Secession Movement in Ethiopia

 Ethiopia Insight published on 22 July 2025 a commentary titled "Tigray Needs Democracy Before Secession" by Abrar Fitwi, St. Mary's College in Indiana.  

The author comments on the agenda of the recently created Tigrayan diaspora advocacy group called Voice of Independent Tigray (VIT) based in Maryland.  While the author does not oppose self-determination, he argues that it must be based on a democratic foundation or it will become something hollow or worse, oppressive.  

Comment:  Tigrayans need to ask themselves at least one more question.  Would a democratic and independent Tigray be economically viable or just another small, landlocked state largely dependent on foreign assistance?   

Alhurra Interview on the Horn of Africa

 Alhurra has just posted a 30-minute interview with me in English and with Arabic subtitles on "The Diplomat" dealing with the Horn of Africa.

Much of the interview focuses on US diplomacy during the Ethiopia-Eritrea war that broke out in 1998.  There is also a discussion of US policy towards Sudan and the genocide in Rwanda.

State Department Reduction in Force: How It Was Done and Reactions

 NBC News posted on 12 July 2025 an account titled "Veteran U.S. Diplomats Baffled after Mass Layoffs at State Department" by Abigail Williams.  

This is a report on the 11 July dismissal of more than 1,300 State Department civil and foreign service personnel.  It focuses on the way the State Department conducted the firings and the response of those fired and those who kept their jobs.  

State Department Reorganization: For Efficiency or Kneecapping Foreign Policy?

 The Hill published on 27 April 2025 an article titled "Rubio's State Department Scale-down: Efficiency or Global Retreat?" by Laura Kelly.

The Trump administration argues that reorganization of the State Department is intended to make it more efficient.  Critics respond that it is kneecapping US influence in foreign policy.

Comment:  There are almost certainly elements of efficiency included in Secretary of State Marco Rubio's plan to reorganize the State Department.  But when combined with the Trump administration's dismantlement of the US Agency for International Development, Millennium Challenge Corporation, Voice of America and affiliated media outlets, and a host of lesser-known international affairs institutions, the result is mostly a global retreat in US influence in foreign affairs.

Marco Rubio Shuts Down State Department's Soft Power Programs

 MSNBC posted on 23 April 2025 a commentary titled "Marco Rubio Is Taking a Chainsaw to America's Soft Power" by Zeeshan Aleem.  

As Secretary of State Marco Rubio implements the Trump administration's America First policy, he is eliminating traditional soft power programs in the State Department for promoting human rights, democracy, and the empowerment of women.  The Trump administration is signaling that it increasingly intends to use the threat of force instead of diplomacy to achieve its foreign policy goals.  

WAMU Podcast: Putting a Face on USAID

 WAMU, American University Radio, posted on 6 February 2025 a 40-minute podcast titled "Donald Trump and Elon Musk Are Targeting USAID."

Although the radio program aired a month ago and USAID is confronting a far more dire situation today, it is one of the few efforts that puts a human face on the dismantling of a proud and important aid organization.