Africa's Geopolitical Realignment

 Global Views World published on 10 August 2026 a commentary titled "Africa's 2026 Geopolitics: China's $282B Pull" by Alonso Reyes.  

The author argues Africa's geopolitical alignment is undergoing significant transformation by moving away from traditional Western allies and towards emerging powers such as China, India, Russia, and the Gulf States.

But this is not a zero-sum game.  African leaders are not choosing sides.  They are diversifying their partnerships to maximize their own national interests.

The West Should Take No Comfort from Russia's Failure in Mali

 The National Interest published on 9 July 2026 an article titled "The Lessons of Mali" by Brendon Sanders.

Both Western and, more recently, Russian counter terrorism efforts in Mali have failed.  But the West should take no comfort from Russia's inability to deliver stability in the Sahel region.  

Odd Timing of Tanzanian President's Visit to Russia

 Africa-Press published on 3 June 2026 an article titled "Tanzania: Historic Russia Visit Amid Tensions."

Tanzanian President Samia Suluhu Hassan made an official visit to Russia 3-5 June, the first visit by a Tanzanian leader in over five decades.  The visit takes place following disputed elections in Tanzania in October 2025, deteriorating relations with the West, and during Russia's war with Ukraine.

A June 2 article in Tanzania's Taufa Daily titled "10 Reasons President Samia's Russia Visit Is a Major Win for Tanzania" goes to considerable lengths to justify the timing of the visit.

Do China's Digitally Connected Products Pose Security Issues in Africa?

The China-Africa Security Radar published on 17 May 2026 a commentary titled "Chinese Clean Tech Is Raising Alarm Bells in the West--Should Africa Be Worried Too?" 

Western governments are raising concerns about the impact of Chinese-supplied digitally connected electric vehicles and solar power inverters connected to the internet.  They have the potential to harvest large amounts of geospatial and personal data.

The United States and certain European countries are banning some of this Chinese equipment.  China counters that these are excuses to protect less competitive Western products.  These Chinese products are being woven even more deeply into African markets and raise questions about data protection.  

Can China's Approach to AI Offer Lessons for Africa?

 The Diplomat published on 4 May 2026 a commentary titled "What China's AI Push Can Teach Africa about the Future of Labor" by Hannah Ryder and Huiyi Chen.

The authors argue that Africa should look at China's approach to dealing with AI and robotics in the workplace rather than the approach taken by Western countries.  China works on the assumption that automation does not move in one direction, at one speed, or through one class of jobs.  It can shift jobs from factory floors to office desks, from routine administration to design studios, and from manual repetition to communications and performance roles.

Comment:  The authors draw sharper differences between China's response to AI in the job market and the approach of Western countries than the situation merits.  They also assume a transition by the African labor force that may be more difficult to achieve than they suggest.

Limitations of Western Efforts to End War in Sudan

 Foreign Policy published on 6 April 2024 an analysis titled "Horrors in Sudan Highlight Deterioration of Western Diplomatic Corps."

There is little willingness by the West to end Sudan's conflict, but there is also little ability to do anything.  Western states have minimal leverage with the two major combatants: The Sudan Armed Forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces.  

Africa's New Approach to Critical Minerals: Implications for China and the West

 Skillings Mining Review published on 3 March 2026 an article titled "The Indaba 2026 Legacy: Inside the New African Critical Minerals Framework" by Charles Pitts.

The most recent Cape Town conference on mining (Indaba 2026) demonstrated that three major African sources of critical minerals (DRC, Zambia, and South Africa) acted in a coordinated way to ensure that its raw mineral wealth is not just exported but more of it is refined in Africa for value added benefits.  For example, the DRC produces about 70 percent of the world's cobalt but now refines less than 10 percent of it.  The DRC intends to change that ratio.

The West's Lobito Corridor project for Angola, Zambia, and the DRC fits this new African narrative reasonably well, China's focus on importing raw material not so much.  

Is China's Media Campaign in Africa Working?

 Semafor published on 2 March 2026 an article titled "China's Media Push in Africa Has Largely Failed, Analysts Say" by Jeronimo Gonzalez.   

Although Africans perceived China's influence positively in a recent Afro Barometer poll, a Nigerian analyst believes Beijing's multi-billion media campaign to attract an audience has largely failed.  African audiences still prefer news from the West.

Comment:  The fact remains that the Afro Barometer poll of 29 countries indicates Africans have a more positive perception of China's influence in Africa than of US or EU influence.  The negative perception of all three is about the same.  

Russia in Africa: Influence and Its Limits

 The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace published on 26 February 2026 a study titled "Russia in Africa: Examining Moscow's Influence and Its Limits" edited by Nate Reynolds, Frances Z. Brown, Frederic Wehrey, and Andrew S. Weiss.

The study explores Russia's role, its appeal, and its limitations across Africa since the 2010s, drawing on contributions from a range of scholars.  It also looks at the agency and interests of African governments and citizens.

Opportunism continues to define Russia's approach to Africa, as Moscow hones a set of tools designed to take advantage of instability and state fragility.  African actors can--and do--instrumentalize Russian engagement on the continent and advance their own agency in the relationship.  Geopolitical competition in Africa is widening and intensifying as middle powers emerge as important external partners, in addition to traditional powers.  The West must evolve its approach accordingly.

These essays point to a complicated and mixed record for Russia in Africa that defies simple characterizations.  Russia's influence in Africa has undoubtedly grown, but there are outstanding questions about whether it can translate its gains into stable, lasting relationships; whether its tools and symbolic gestures will gain further traction; and whether it can outcompete a crowded field of external powers that can deliver more than Russia, should they choose to.

China's Digital Program in Africa

 Foreign Policy Watchdog posted on 20 February 2026 an article titled "The Shifting Sands of Influence: China's Strategic Investment in Africa's Digital Infrastructure."

Chinese companies such as Huawei and ZTE currently control about 40 percent of Africa's internet bandwidth and hold over 65 percent of smartphone market share in key African countries.  It is questionable if the West can respond effectively.  China may shape the continent's digital destiny.

Will Africa Win in Competition for Critical Minerals?

 Reuters published on 12 February 2026 an article titled "Can Africa Win as the West and China Scramble for Minerals?" by Clyde Russell.

Competing Western and Chinese rail projects in a mineral rich part of Africa emphasize the competition for Africa's critical minerals.  A question remains, however, if the African countries will benefit significantly from this competition.  

China Counters Western Alliances in Global South

 Modern Diplomacy published on 31 January 2026 a commentary titled "How China Courts the Global South to Counter U.S. Alliances" by Nadia Helmy, Beni Suef University in Egypt. 

China is countering Western alliances by drawing on its soft power and economic engagement through the Belt and Road Initiative, rapid military modernization, the formation of counter alliances such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, and "gray zone" tactics.  China's goal is to shape a multipolar world order.  

Africa's AI Future: China or the West?

 GZERO Media posted on 22 January 2026 a five-minute clip from a conversation titled "Africa's AI Future: China or the West?"

Africa's AI future is not predetermined by technology, but by who shows up, who invests, and who builds the infrastructure first.  China is showing up, the United States is not.  

Why China Needs Africa

 Azerbaijan's News.az published on 31 December 2025 an article titled "Why China Needs Africa."

For Beijing, Africa has become a strategic key to the future global order.  China needs the critical minerals found in Africa and its markets to sell its goods.  Africa is also a massive testing ground for Chinese technology, especially digital products.  China wants to shape Africa, which is young, resource-rich, globally connected through corridors built by Beijing, and less dependent on Western institutions.  China is buying time and influence in Africa.  

Implications of China's Weapons Transfer to Burkina Faso

 China-Africa Security Radar posted on 14 December 2025 a commentary titled "China's Weapons for Burkina Faso" by Paa Kwesi Wolseley Prah.

The author argued that China's large military equipment transfer to Burkina Faso last August raises the question as to what kind of order is Beijing constructing in the Sahel and at what cost to the region's long-term stability.  China is exploiting the withdrawal of Western security partners from the Sahel and becoming the security provider of first resort.  This is a transactional relationship: you need weapons, we sell weapons, and what you do with them is your business.  

But the transaction creates a dependency on China, including providing ammunition and spare parts.  In this transactional relationship, China gains influence, market access, diplomatic alignment, and a testing ground for its military equipment.  Beijing offers states in the Sahel not liberation from Western paternalism but membership in a different form of asymmetric relationship.

China Fills Western Absence in Africa

 Semafor published on 20 November 2025 a commentary titled "How African Nations Got Stuck with China" by Andy Browne, managing editor of Live Journalism.

China offers Africa mercantilist trade policies and adds to African debt with its loan practices, but Western countries have not stepped up to fill the need on the continent.  Washington has dismantled the US Agency for International Development, and some European countries are scaling back their aid programs.  As a result, Beijing is making progress on forging an alternative to the US-led global order.

Interview on Multipolarity and US Africa Policy

 The international press agency Pressenza published on 15 November 2025 my interview titled "Obama, Biden and Trump: Changing U.S. Policy towards Africa" moderated by Kester Kenn Klomegah.  

The interview focused on the impact in Africa of a multipolar world and the approach towards Africa of President Obama, Biden, and Trump.  

Modern Diplomacy posted the same interview on 16 November 2025.

China's Assertive Global Governance Initiative

The Diplomat published on 23 September 2025 a commentary titled "2025 Xiangshan Forum: China Enters a New Era of Assertive Global Governance" by Sookyeon Lee, lieutenant colonel in the Republic of Korea Marine Corps and associate professor at the Korea National Defense University.  

The 12th Beijing Xiangshan Forum in September 2025 represented a watershed moment in China's foreign policy.  The author, who attended the forum in 2024 and 2025, concluded this year's session showcased an emboldened China ready to present itself as the leader of an alternative global order.  The forum also tracked closely the recent announcement of China's Global Governance Initiative, a framework for reforming the current Western-led international system. 

Egypt Buys Chinese Air Defense System; China Solidifies Position as Arms Supplier

 Military Africa published on 2 July 2025 an article titled "Egypt Confirms Acquisition of Chinese HQ-9B Long-range Air Defence System" by Darek Liam. 

Egypt is buying from China a long-range surface-to-air missile system designed to counter fighter jets, cruise missiles, and short-range ballistic missiles.  Frustrated by Western restrictions on arms sales, Cairo is turning increasingly to China, which is positioning itself as a reliable supplier of weapons to countries in the Middle East. 

The Changing Shape of Chinese Investment in Africa

 The Center for Global Development published in June 2025 a paper titled "China's Investment Pivot and Africa's Industrial Prospects: Any Hope for African 'Flying Geese'?" by Charles Kenny.  

The paper examines the changing shape of Chinese investment in Africa as it evolves from largescale infrastructure toward small scale manufacturing.  It looks at the opportunity for the region in the context of a deepening manufacturing labor shortage in China; discusses barriers to that opportunity in both China and Africa; and the potential response of Western countries.