China-Africa Ties and US Policy

 The Congressional Research Service published on 6 August 2026 a paper titled "China-Sub-Saharan Africa Ties and U.S. Policy" by Nicolas Cook, Lauren Ploch Blanchard, and Michael D. Sutherland.

China presents its engagement in Africa as promoting mutually beneficial economic development without imposing political conditions.  In practice, China seeks to use integrated multidimensional engagement to advance its broader global strategic goals of expanding its international influence, strengthening its access to natural resources, and challenging US global leadership.

Economic activity is a central pillar of China's activity in Africa.  Beijing's policy banks and state-backed lenders have extended numerous loans to African governments and other actors, making China a key bilateral creditor on the continent.  China engages in education and media cooperation, and provides development aid via grants and concessional loans, technical assistance, and humanitarian programs. Security cooperation between China and African countries has grown, especially over the last decade. 

Chinese Companies Hold Inside Track for Ethiopia's Huge New Airport

 Vietnam's VN Express published on 16 August 2026 an article titled "Africa's Biggest Airport Project Puts Chinese Firms on Shortlist" by Phan Anh.

Chinese state-owned companies have been short-listed for 15 of the 33 places for Ethiopia's $12.5 billion international airport outside Addis Ababa.  No US company made the shortlist, but Boeing supplies most of the aircraft for the Ethiopian Airlines fleet.  

The project requires more than $9 billion in external funding.  This is the most expensive aviation project ever undertaken in Africa.

Chinese Private Sector Investment in Angolan Port Terminal

 Business Insider Africa published on 21 July 2026 an article titled "Another African Country Gets $900 Million Chinese-backed Port Investment Amid Beijing's Billion-dollar Race Across the Continent" by Olamilekan Okebiorun.

China's Huatong Angola Industry has signed a $900 million deal with Angola's state-owned Barra do Dande Development Company covering a 25-year sub-concession for the construction and operation of a port terminal and supporting infrastructure.  This is entirely a private sector investment.

This deal is part of a new Chinese investment strategy in Africa that is moving away from large government-backed loans and towards foreign direct investment, private financing, and commercially viable projects.  

Eswatini Sticks with Taiwan and Misses Out on China's Zero Tariffs

 African Arguments published on 25 June 2026 a commentary titled "Xi's Zero Tariff Offer to Africa and the Political Boundaries of Eswatini's Exclusion" by Francis Annagu, a freelance journalist.

China made imports from Africa duty free as of May 1 for all countries except Eswatini, which recognizes Taiwan.  The author suggests Eswatini decided to maintain its relationship with Taiwan because of its long friendship with Taipei that began well before China became a major economic power in Africa.  

Zambia's Reasons for Cancelling Major Human Rights Summit

 Just Security published on 2 June 2026 a commentary titled "In Addition to Chinese Pressure, a Backsliding Democracy May Explain Zambia's Decision to Cancel a Major Human Rights Summit" by Jane Munga and Steve Feldstein.

Days before 2,600 human rights defenders, technologists, and policymakers were expected in Lusaka, Zambia, on April 30, the Zambian government called off RightsCon, the world's largest conference on digital rights.  

According to the summit organizers, the cancellation was due to foreign interference from China "because Taiwanese civil society participants were planning to join us in person."  But a closer look reveals a more complicated picture linked to Zambia's democratic decline and more repressive policies.  

Chinese Finance and Critical Mineral Access in Africa

 Boston University's Global Development Policy Center published in June 2026 a paper titled "Development Quid Pro Quo: Chinese Finance and Critical Mineral Access in Africa" by Congyi Dai.

The paper explores whether China's development finance agenda is motivated by its global quest for natural resources, facilitating mine acquisitions in Africa.  It uses four data sources to examine whether Chinese development finance is tied to the pursuit of critical minerals.

The paper concludes that minerals needed for clean energy technologies such as copper, cobalt, nickel, and platinum group metals are associated with Chinese loan commitments to recipient countries.  Specifically, uranium is the mineral most strongly linked to Chinese development projects, particularly those including a substantial grant component and highly concessional repayment terms.

The Promise and Disappointment of China's Zero Tariff Policy for Africa

 The Daily Maverick published on 10 June 2026 an article titled "China's Zero-Tariff 'Gift' to Africa Could Be a Trojan Horse in Disguise" by William Gumede, University of Witwatersrand.  

China's new zero tariffs for African countries offer an opportunity to industrialize but it will only happen if they leverage China to build manufacturing capacity in Africa, transfer technology and skills, add value to raw materials, and secure Chinese financing for industry relevant infrastructure.  

Assessment of Chinese Financed and Built Light Rail Project in Addis Ababa

 The Transportation Research Interdisciplinary Perspectives journal published in March 2026 an in-depth assessment titled "The Road Divides: When Funding Shapes Form - Assessing the Connectivity Impacts of China-financed Light Rail in Addis Ababa" by Guibo Sun, The University of Manchester, and Kristen Zhao, Manchester Metropolitan University.  

Chinese loans provided $475 million for financing most of the Addis Ababa Light Rail Transit (AALRT), a system that rings the capital city.  Completed by Chinese companies almost ten years ago, the system was designed to move up to 60,000 passengers per hour.  AALRT was promoted as a showcase project for the Belt and Road Initiative.

The assessment concludes that AALRT fell far short of its promises.  Chronic service disruptions and limited maintenance funding mean only about a third of its 41 trains are operational, transporting just 55,000 passengers a day, a fraction of its projected capacity.  Instead of alleviating congestion in Addis Ababa, the system has contributed to the creation of new traffic bottlenecks, with daily life in Addis Ababa being impacted by both reduced connectivity and inadequate transfer capacity.

Chinese Infrastructure Projects in Africa Leave No Role for Local Urban Planners

 The Conversation published on 30 March 2026 a commentary titled "China Is Helping Build Africa's Cities, but Its Approach Sidelines Local Urban Planners and Residents" by Ding Fei, Cornell University.

Chinese-financed infrastructure projects are transforming skylines and daily life across Africa.  While China delivers an impressive volume of infrastructure, it risks reinforcing Africa's national government dominance in decision-making on urban infrastructure development.  African local governments and residents are excluded from the project planning and negotiating process.  

Kenya and Uganda Press Ahead with Chinese-built Railway Extension

 Agence France Presse published on 21 March 2026 an article titled "Kenya, Uganda Open Rail Extension Burdened by Chinese Debt."

The completion of the Chinese-built and financed standard-gauge railway from the port of Mombasa to Naivasha, which was originally intended to reach Kampala, Uganda, has become a major priority for both leaders.  The presidents of Kenya and Uganda recently met to discuss the railway extension.

Chinese companies will build the extension, which Kenya will finance by borrowing against future cargo taxes.  

Chinese Artificial Intelligence Surveillance in 11 African Countries

 The Institute of Development Studies published in March 2026 a major study titled "Smart City Surveillance in Africa: Mapping Chinese AI Surveillance Across 11 Countries" edited by Wairagala Wakabi and Tony Roberts.

The report provides a comprehensive account of smart city surveillance in Algeria, Egypt, Kenya, Mauritius, Mozambique, Nigeria, Rwanda, Senegal, Uganda, Zambia, and Zimbabwe.  China is by far the largest supplier of AI surveillance technologies to African governments, including to all 11 covered in this study.  

The rapid expansion of smart city surveillance is having a chilling effect on ordinary citizens and journalists.  The scale and invasive nature of mass surveillance is often not legal, necessary, or proportionate.  There is little evidence that the expansion of digital surveillance reduces overall crime.

The Plusses and Minuses of China's Investment and Trade in Africa

 The Conversation published on 10 March 2026 a commentary titled "China in Africa: Investment and Trade Work Well When There's Strong Oversight, and Badly When There Isn't" by Vincent Tawiah, Dublin City University.

The author concludes that Chinese investment, loans, and trade in Africa offer substantial economic opportunity, but they can also lead to the rapid depletion of vital energy and forestry resources, undermining long-term development goals if institutional guardrails are weak.

Interview with Tigray Press: Part 2

 This is part 2 of the Tigray Press interview with me on 9 March 2026 hosted by Bisrat Kebede.  Part 1 is posted below on 10 March.  

This 44-minute segment focuses on the current situation in the Horn of Africa and the engagement in Africa of the United States, China, and Russia.   

Angola's State Oil Company Seeks $4.8 Billion Loan from China

 Angolan Mining Oil & Gas published on 26 February 2026 an article titled "Sonangol Seeks $4.8 Billion Loan from China to Fund Lobito Refinery Expansion" by Makungu Coco.  

Sonangol, Angola's state oil company, is pursuing a $4.8 billion loan from Chinese financial institutions to accelerate construction of its new refinery at the Atlantic port of Lobito.  This would be Sonangol's first major loan from China in seven years.

Kenya Converts Chinese Loans from Dollar to Yuan Denomination

 Kenya's Sharp Daily published on 30 January 2026 an article titled "Kenya's Shift to Yuan-Denominated Debt: Economic Strategy, Risks, and Regional Momentum" by Ryan Macharia.

Kenya has converted three dollar-denominated loans with the Export-Import Bank of China into yuan, a restructuring expected to reduce annual debt servicing costs to China by $215 million annually.  Yuan-denominated interest rates are lower than their dollar counterparts, easing pressure on Kenya's public finances and reducing exposure to US interest rate cycles.

The International Monetary Fund cautions, however, that while currency conversion can reduce near-term costs, it also introduces exposure to Chinese currency fluctuations, which may pose new currency risks if not matched with sufficient yuan revenue streams or hedge strategies.  

Africa's Debt Repayment to China Now Exceeds New Loans

 One Data published on 27 January 2026 an article titled "One Data and Rockefeller Foundation to Launch New Development Finance Observatory in 2026."

China went from being a net provider of finance--transferring $48 billion to low- and lower-middle-income countries (via official and private lenders) a decade ago--to a net extractor of $24 billion.  Africa has experienced the most dramatic reversal in Chinese finance.  It went from receiving $30 billion to paying out $22 billion, a $52 billion swing.  

Chinese Loan Commitments to Africa Fall in 2024

 Reuters published on 22 January 2026 an article titled "China's Africa Lending Nearly Halved in 2024, Shifts to Yuan" by Colleen Goko.  

Chinese lending to Africa fell to $2.1 billion in 2024, almost 50 percent less than in 2023 and one-tenth of its peak lending year to Africa in 2016 when it loaned $28.8 billion.  The lower levels of lending reflect China's move away from large infrastructure projects such as railways and roads and toward smaller, commercially viable projects.

China has also increasingly pivoted away from dollar-denominated megaprojects characteristic of the early Belt and Road Initiative and toward smaller-scale financing denominated in yuan.  The five highest recipients of Chinese loans from 2000 through 2024 are Angola, Ethiopia, Kenya, Zambia, and Nigeria.

China's Foreign Aid Policy

 The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute published in January 2026 a study titled "China and the Changing International Development Landscape" by Jingdong Yuan.  

The current level of China's overseas development assistance makes it impossible for Beijing to fill the gap left by the dismantlement of the US Agency for International Development.  Beijing is more willing to promote its development aid model of infrastructure-driven and trade-related growth.

Turkish Think Tank Sees Recalibration of China-Africa Relations in 2025

 The International Asia Today published on 30 December 2025 an analysis titled "The Great Recalibration: Why 2025 Changed the Rules of China-Africa Engagement" by Goktug Caliskan.

The year 2025 marked a qualitative shift in China-Africa relations from an infrastructure-driven partnership to a more complex combination of trade liberalization, industrial engagement, institutional coordination, and long-term policy alignment.  China-Africa relations are increasingly structured as a system rather than a sequence of transactions.  

Chinese Overproduction and American Tariffs Set Back African Industrialization

 ZNetwork published on 28 December 2025 an analysis titled "Africa Deindustrializes Due to China's Overproduction and Trump Tariffs" by Patrick Bond.

African industrialization has struggled for decades but is now further hindered by China's overproduction and massive exports to Africa and Trump's new tariffs on African exports and the end of the Africa Growth and Opportunity Act.