Eritrea After Isaias Afwerki

 Twin Cities, Minnesota radio station Voices of Ethiopia posted on 21 August 2026 a commentary titled "After Isaias: Could Eritrea's Succession Crisis Destabilize the Red Sea?"

Since independence in 1995, Isaias Afwerki has been the center of power in Eritrea.  This commentary raises the question whether Eritrea can undergo a transfer of power without triggering a struggle among the military, security establishment, political elite, and competing regional interests--and whether a potential struggle could spill beyond Eritrea's borders.  Internal fragmentation, a proxy struggle along the Red Sea, and even normalization of relations with Ethiopia are all possible.

 

US Policy Challenges in the Horn of Africa

 Responsible Statecraft posted on 12 August 2026 an article titled "How the Egypt-Ethiopia Feud Could Upend Trump's Plans in Africa" by Jonathan Fenton Harvey.

The United States is sending mixed and confusing signals to Egypt, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Sudan, Somalia, and Somaliland on complex relations in the region dealing with allocation of Nile waters and Ethiopia's quest for access to the sea.

Ethiopia's Economic Outlook

 Nanyang Technological University published on 6 July 2026 an article titled "Assessing Ethiopia's Economic Reform and Outlook" by Rafiq Raji.  

Ethiopia's economic growth since 2022 has averaged about 8.5 percent and is projected to maintain that rate at least until 2030, assuming there are no catastrophic events such as a war in Tigray region or with Eritrea.  Inflation is trending down and Ethiopia has restructured its significant level of debt.  The country's exports are doing well.  

US Diplomacy in the Horn of Africa

 Aljazeera published on 21 July 2026 an article titled "Who Is Driving Diplomacy in the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea, and Why?"

US senior adviser for Africa, Massad Boulos, recently held meetings in Cairo with the foreign ministers of Somalia and Eritrea as part of an effort to prevent another regional crisis or build a broader diplomatic framework.

Comment:  These meetings may well have been routine diplomacy, constituting less than is implied in the Aljazeera lead to the article. 

An Analysis of Ethiopia's Parliamentary Elections

 The Emirates Policy Center published on 7 July 2026 an analysis titled "Ethiopia's Seventh Elections: Challenges of Internal Stability and Repercussions on Regional Politics."

The huge victory by the ruling Prosperity Party in Ethiopia's recent parliamentary elections did not resolve the crisis of political legitimacy, as the electoral process remained characterized by a precarious security environment, inequitable competition, and a significant lack of voter turnout in numerous regions.

Ethiopia Not Concerned About Counter Alliance

The Sudan Tribune published on 8 July 2026 an article titled "Ethiopia Faces No Threat from Regional Alliance, PM Abiy Says." 

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed dismissed concerns over an alleged growing alliance of Eritrea, Sudan, and the Tigray People's Liberation Front, noting that his country is improving its defensive capabilities.

Geopolitical Implications of Rapprochement Between Ethiopia and Somaliland

 The Emirates Policy Center published on 1 July 2026 a paper titled "Between Maritime Access and Recognition: Geopolitical Implications of Rapprochement Between Ethiopia and Somaliland."

The prospect of landlocked Ethiopia securing maritime access through Somaliland highlights the intersection of Addis Ababa's structural need for a maritime outlet and Hargeisa's ambition to strengthen its legitimacy and bargaining power--without pressing for immediate formal recognition.

The most likely scenario in the foreseeable future is the gradual expansion of economic and logistical cooperation between Ethiopia and Somaliland, without sovereign arrangements or formal recognition.  While the option of recognition or sovereign maritime privileges remains possible, it is less likely and would require deeper regional and international transformations.  

China Embeds Itself in Africa's Maritime Networks

 The Africa Center for Strategic Studies published on 10 June 2026 a paper titled "Beyond Ports: China Embeds Itself in Africa's Maritime Networks" by Paul Nantulya.  

China is Africa's largest trade partner, major financer and builder of African ports, and has embedded itself in other aspects of the continent's maritime networks.

China's growing role in training, governance, and data systems could entrench long-term influence over Africa's institutions, potentially normalizing Chinese standards and creating structural dependencies on Chinese-built physical and digital infrastructure.  This can limit Africa's domestic competition, divert scarce revenue, introduce data and security concerns, and reduce policy flexibility and bargaining power.

Ethiopia: What Next after Abiy Ahmed's Election Victory?

 African Business published on 23 June 2026 an article titled "Where Next for Ethiopia after Abiy Ahmed's Landslide?" by Harry Clynch.

Following the landslide victory by Abiy Ahmed's Prosperity Party in national elections, the article suggests Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed will push for deeper centralization of government power, an acceleration of economic reform, and a continuing effort to obtain access to the sea for landlocked Ethiopia.

Ethiopian Politics after the 2026 National Elections

 Abren, a group of Ethiopian Americans in the Washington area, posted on 18 June 2026 a commentary titled "Ethiopia's Road Ahead: Politics After the 2026 Election."

This commentary provides an overview of the national elections that took place in Ethiopia earlier this month.  It assumes a landslide victory for Abiy Ahmed's Prosperity Party but highlights several problems that occurred during the elections.  Abren predicts the acceleration of market liberalization and a continuing effort by the government to obtain access to the sea.  

China Expands Influence in Africa's Maritime Networks

The Africa Center for Strategic Studies published on 10 June 2026 a study titled "Beyond Ports: China Embeds Itself in Africa's Maritime Networks" by Paul Nantulya.   

China has established new shipping corridors that connect African port clusters in West, North, and Southern Africa to Chinese port hubs in Qingdao, Tianjin, and Yantai.  These routes add to the dozens of direct lines between African and Chinese ports, reflecting growing integration into China-centered maritime networks.  

China, Ethiopia, and Eritrea

 Borkena published on 11 April 2026 an article titled "Chinese Special Envoy to Horn of Africa Meets Eritrean President."

Ambassador Hu Changchun, China's Special Envoy to the Horn of Africa, met this week in Asmara with Eritrean President Isaias Afeworki.  While this appears to be a routine meeting, it follows a high-level Ethiopian visit to China to restructure its large debt.  Landlocked Ethiopia has also approached China concerning mediation with Eritrea on access to the Red Sea.

Unpacking Instability in the Horn of Africa

 The International Crisis Group posted on 19 March 2026 a 36-minute podcast titled "What Is Really Going on in the Horn?" with Alan Boswell and Moses Chrispus Okello, Institute of Security Studies.

The drivers of conflict and instability in the Horn of Africa are no longer confined to the Horn, which is being absorbed into the geopolitical arena of the Red Sea and Gulf States.  External actors are contributing to fragmentation in the Horn that is rooted in domestic politics.  

Landlocked Ethiopia is key to stability in the region because it borders all other countries in the Horn, is the most populous, and is now trying to obtain access to the Red Sea.

Interview with Tigray Press: Part 2

 This is part 2 of the Tigray Press interview with me on 9 March 2026 hosted by Bisrat Kebede.  Part 1 is posted below on 10 March.  

This 44-minute segment focuses on the current situation in the Horn of Africa and the engagement in Africa of the United States, China, and Russia.   

Update on Rising Tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea

 African Business published on 11 March 2026 an article titled "Why Tensions Between Ethiopia and Eritrea Are Rising Again" by Harry Clynch.

Ethiopia and Eritrea have amassed troops on their shared border, leading some analysts to fear that war could be on its way.  Other analysts are less convinced that war between Ethiopia and Eritrea is likely.  

What's Behind Risk of War Between Ethiopia and Eritrea

The Conversation published on 20 February 2026 a commentary titled "Ethiopia and Eritrea Are on Edge Again: What's Behind the Growing Risk of War" by Yohannes Gedamu. 

The author argues that landlocked Ethiopia's desire for maritime access, Eritrea's support for armed dissident groups in Ethiopia, and Eritrea's omission from the peace process that ended the Tigray war are the primary drivers of current tension between Ethiopia and Eritrea.

Ethiopia and Eritrea Play Cat and Mouse Along Border

 Ethiopia's Institute of Foreign Affairs published on 11 February 2026 an article titled "Ethiopia's Diplomacy, Eritrea's Escalation, and the Future of the Horn of Africa" by Bemnet Alemayehu.  

Ethiopia's minister of foreign affairs sent a letter on 7 February to his counterpart in Eritrea expressing serious concern over Eritrea's military penetration deeper into Ethiopia's northeastern border areas.  Ethiopia charged the troops violate the country's territorial integrity and demanded their immediate withdrawal. At the same time, Ethiopia called for diplomatic engagement to avoid reciprocal military escalation.

Ethiopia Insight published on 23 February 2026 a commentary titled "Ethiopia's Ambiguous Letter Said More Than It Stated" by Dahilon Yassin Mohamoda. 

The author raises interesting questions about the substance and form of the letter.   

A facsimile of the 7 February letter between the two foreign ministers has been posted online.  Read it and decide for yourself what kind of message Ethiopia is sending to Eritrea and the world.  Is the letter an example of what Professor Don Levine called Ethiopia's Amharic tradition of "Wax and Gold?"