Eritrea After Isaias Afwerki

 Twin Cities, Minnesota radio station Voices of Ethiopia posted on 21 August 2026 a commentary titled "After Isaias: Could Eritrea's Succession Crisis Destabilize the Red Sea?"

Since independence in 1995, Isaias Afwerki has been the center of power in Eritrea.  This commentary raises the question whether Eritrea can undergo a transfer of power without triggering a struggle among the military, security establishment, political elite, and competing regional interests--and whether a potential struggle could spill beyond Eritrea's borders.  Internal fragmentation, a proxy struggle along the Red Sea, and even normalization of relations with Ethiopia are all possible.

 

Is Ethiopia Sliding Toward a New Tigray War?

 The International Crisis Group posted on 10 July 2026 a 40-minute podcast titled "Is Ethiopia Sliding Toward a New Tigray War?" with Alan Boswell and Payton Knopf, Dialogue Advisory Group and former U.S. Deputy Special Envoy for the Horn of Africa.  

They discuss the background and status of the Pretoria Agreement and the rising risk of renewed war in Ethiopia's Tigray Region.  They look at how unresolved disputes over territory, Tigray's federal status, internal divisions, and worsening Ethiopia-Eritrea tensions could push the region back toward war.  They also unpack why escalating regional dynamics, including the war in Sudan, could make a renewed conflict even more explosive, why full-scale war is not inevitable, and what practical off ramps still remain.

United States-Eritrea Rapprochement

 The Emirates Policy Center published on 21 May 2026 an analysis titled "The US-Eritrea Rapprochement: Signs and Prospects."

The United States seeks to leverage Eritrea's position on the Red Sea to address maritime tensions and threats, while Asmara is counting on American receptiveness to overcome its isolation and strengthen its capacity to navigate Ethiopian and regional pressures.

The analysis concludes that interaction between the United States and Eritrea will probably remain restricted to functional engagement rather than evolving into a comprehensive and enduring partnership.

US to Lift Sanctions on Eritrea

 Reuters published on 5 May 2026 an article titled "US to Lift Eritrea Sanctions as Red Sea Tensions Reshape Alliances, Document Says" by Giulia Paravicini.  

The United States is set to remove sanctions against Eritrea imposed by the Biden administration in 2021.  The decision is aimed at improving relations with Eritrea, which has a long Red Sea coastline, while sending a message to landlocked Ethiopia not to use military force to seek an outlet to the sea through Eritrea.  

US in Discussion with Eritrea over Possible Reset in Relations

 The Wall Street Journal published on 22 April 2026 an article titled "U.S. Seeks to Reset Ties with Reclusive but Strategically Vital African State" by Robbie Gramer and Summer Said. 

The Trump administration is exploring ways to reset relations with Eritrea, beginning with the lifting of sanctions.  The administration's special envoy for Africa, Massad Boulos, first met with Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki late last year in Cairo.  

The US war in Ian has elevated the importance of freedom of navigation in the Red Sea, where Eritrea has a long coastline.  

China, Ethiopia, and Eritrea

 Borkena published on 11 April 2026 an article titled "Chinese Special Envoy to Horn of Africa Meets Eritrean President."

Ambassador Hu Changchun, China's Special Envoy to the Horn of Africa, met this week in Asmara with Eritrean President Isaias Afeworki.  While this appears to be a routine meeting, it follows a high-level Ethiopian visit to China to restructure its large debt.  Landlocked Ethiopia has also approached China concerning mediation with Eritrea on access to the Red Sea.

Update on Rising Tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea

 African Business published on 11 March 2026 an article titled "Why Tensions Between Ethiopia and Eritrea Are Rising Again" by Harry Clynch.

Ethiopia and Eritrea have amassed troops on their shared border, leading some analysts to fear that war could be on its way.  Other analysts are less convinced that war between Ethiopia and Eritrea is likely.  

The Case for Genocide in Ethiopia's War in Tigray

 

Tghat, a Tigrayan media platform devoted to the war in Tigray, published on 18 February 2026 a commentary titled "Why Eritrea Committed Genocide in Tigray" by Desta Haileselassie Hagos, Howard University.  

The author argues that the 2020-2022 war in Ethiopia's Tigray Region was an effort by the federal government of Ethiopia and the government of Eritrea to destroy Tigray and eradicate its people.  

This is a much longer account of the arguments made by the author published by Ethiopia Insight and reposted below on 17 February.  

Is Ethiopia Preparing for War?

 AEI's Critical Threats Africa File published on 25 February 2026 an analysis titled "Ethiopia Prepares for War: Africa File Special Edition" by Michael DeAngelo, Liam Karr, and Anahita Asudani.

The analysis concludes that the Ethiopian federal government will likely launch an offensive against the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) within the next month to neutralize the TPLF and its role in an emerging, loose anti-Ethiopian federal government coalition consisting of Eritrea, the TPLF, and other Amhara and Oromo ethnic nationalist groups.  

What's Behind Risk of War Between Ethiopia and Eritrea

The Conversation published on 20 February 2026 a commentary titled "Ethiopia and Eritrea Are on Edge Again: What's Behind the Growing Risk of War" by Yohannes Gedamu. 

The author argues that landlocked Ethiopia's desire for maritime access, Eritrea's support for armed dissident groups in Ethiopia, and Eritrea's omission from the peace process that ended the Tigray war are the primary drivers of current tension between Ethiopia and Eritrea.

Argument for Eritrea's Role in Tigray Genocide

 Ethiopia Insight published on 17 February 2026 a commentary titled "Eritrea's Role in the Tigray Genocide" by Desta Haileselassie Hagos, Howard University and manager of the Tigray Genocide website.  

The author argues that Eritrean troops joined those from the Ethiopian federal government to engage in a genocide against Tigrayans during the war in Tigray.  

Ethiopia Moves Troops Closer to Tigray Region

 AEI's Critical Threats Africa File published on 12 February 2026 an analysis titled "Ethiopia" by Michael DeAngelo, Liam Karr, and Anahita Asudani.

The Ethiopian government in Addis Ababa is increasing its troop strength near Tigray Region indicating this may be a prelude to a military campaign.  Eritrea is backing the Tigray People's Liberation Front and has troops inside Tigray Region.  In the event of a government attack, Eritrea is expected to side with the Tigray Defense Forces, 

People-to-People Solution to Tigray-Eritrea Differences?

 Ethiopia Insight published on 12 February 2026 a commentary titled "Can a People's Pact Heal a War of Elites?" by Giday Amare, a public servant in the health care sector.  

The author wants ordinary Tigrayans and Eritreans to come together at the people-to-people level in an effort to heal old wounds and overcome divisive actions of elites on both sides of the border.  

Conflict in Ethiopia

 AEI's Critical Threats Africa File published on 5 February 2026 an article titled "Ethiopia" by Michael DeAngelo, Liam Karr, and Anahita Asudani.  

The article describes Tigray Defense Force efforts to take territory held by the Ethiopian National Defense Force and Amhara militias.  The heightened tensions could spark a broader conflict with Eritrea.  Should war break out between Ethiopia and Eritrea, Egypt and the UAE would likely get pulled into it.  

Egypt Strengthens Ties with Djibouti and Eritrea to Gain Leverage on Nile Water Issues with Ethiopia

The National published on 30 December 2025 an article titled "Egypt Finalises Deal to Develop Djibouti's Port in Bid to Pressure Ethiopia over Nile Dam" by Hamza Hendawi. 

Egypt will upgrade Djibouti's Doraleh port and Eritrea's strategic Red Sea port of Assab to increase their capacity and create berths for warships and small military contingents.  This is part of Egypt's strategy to build alliances with Ethiopia's neighbors and develop support for its position on Nile water disagreements.

Horn Developments Concerning Saudi Arabia, UAE, Sudan, Ethiopia, and Eritrea

 AEI's Critical Threats Africa File posted on 18 December 2025 an article titled "Gulf States" by Michael DeAngelo and Liam Karr.

Saudi Arabia recently hosted a series of meetings aimed at getting the Sudan peace process back on track and reducing tension between Ethiopia and Eritrea.  The article also discusses the movement of weapons into the region and alleged Ethiopian support for the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces in Sudan.  

Eritrea Withdraws from Regional Organization

 The BBC posted on 12 December 2025 an article titled "Eritrea Quits Regional Bloc as Tensions Rise with Ethiopia" by Tesfalem Araia.

Eritrea has withdrawn from the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), accusing the organization of "becoming a tool against" countries like itself.  The withdrawal from the Horn of Africa organization follows a fierce war of words between Ethiopia, current chair of IGAD, and Eritrea.

Ethiopia Edges Towards Another War

 The Economist posted on 13 November 2025 an article titled "Ethiopia Is Perilously Close to Another War."

Political divisions within Tigray Region and worsening relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea over Ethiopia's goal of achieving access to the sea are raising the prospect of yet another war in the region.  

Ethiopia's Afar Ploy

 Ethiopia Insight published on 10 November 2025 an analysis titled "Pawn on the Red Sea: Ethiopia's Afar Gambit" by Muktar Ismail, regional analyst.  

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is turning to Afar nationalism as a ploy to gain access to the Red Sea.  Landlocked Ethiopia is invoking Afar victimhood under Isaias Afwerki in Eritrea and positioning Addis Ababa as a patron of Afar self-determination.  How this eventually achieves access to the sea for Ethiopia is not clear.

In the meantime, Eritrea is deploying military forces along the Ethiopia-Eritrea border and arming proxy groups inside Ethiopia.  Abiy's ploy also raises concerns in Djibouti, which has a minority Afar population.

Ethiopia and Eritrea Edging Towards Conflict

 Foreign Policy posted on 21 October 2025 an article titled "The Risk of a New Ethiopian-Eritrean War Is Growing" by Michael Woldemariam, University of Maryland, and Abate Demissie, Chatham House.

Recent developments in Ethiopia's Tigray Region, which borders Eritrea, are eroding relations between the two countries, and the risk of open conflict is growing.  Reviving the dialogue between the Ethiopian federal government and Tigray Region is the first step in forestalling conflict.  Providing landlocked Ethiopia guaranteed options for Red Sea port access is also essential.