AEI's Critical Threats Africa File posted on 30 April 2026 an article titled "Somalia" by Michael DeAngelo.
Somali pirates have hijacked 3 vessels in Somali waters off Puntland since 21 April, the most in a 10-day period since 2012. The problem could get worse if the pirates renew ties with the al-Shabaab terrorist organization in Somalia or Houthi rebels in Yemen.
BBC News posted on 27 April 2026 an article titled "Pirates Seize Another Vessel off Somali Coast as Threat Level Increased" by Harry Sekulich.
After a long period of inactivity, at least 4 vessels have been targeted by pirates off northern Somalia in the past week. Pirates seized an oil tanker with an international crew and a Somali-flagged fishing vessel.
The Independent published on 14 April 2026 an article titled "What Is the 'Gate of Tears'? Key Shipping Route that Could Be Attacked by Houthis and Disrupt Global Economy" by Bryony Gooch and Harry Cockburn.
The authors speculate on the possibility of Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis attacking international shipping in the Red Sea following a US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz between Iran and Oman.
AEI's Critical Threats published on 3 April 2026 an analysis titled "Houthi Escalation Calculus Following Cautious Entry into the Iran War" by Liam Karr and Brian Carter.
The Iran-backed Houthis threatened to join Iran's campaign with attacks across the region designed to coerce the United States and Israel to make concessions in negotiations with Iran and to deter further military escalation against Iran. But the Houthis are unlikely to follow through on these threats unless the US and its allies cross certain Houthi or Iranian red lines, such as the Gulf states entering the war or ground operations against Iran, to avoid retaliation from the US and its allies that would jeopardize the groups domestic position.
The Houthis have conducted several attacks targeting southern Israel since March 27, marking the group's first involvement in the war. Attacks on Israel minimize the risk of entanglement with the Gulf states or the United States. They draw retaliatory Israeli strikes on Yemen that only temporarily damage Houthi infrastructure while further rallying popular support for the group.
AEI's Critical Threats Africa File posted on 2 April 2026 an article titled "Red Sea" by Liam Karr.
While the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen have attacked Israel on several occasions since 27 March, they have not resumed attacks on international shipping in the Red Sea, indicating a restrained approach that attempts to avoid major regional escalation.
The House of Saud published on 27 March 2026 an analysis titled "The Houthis Could End Saudi Arabia's War in Forty-Eight Hours" by Abdul Mohammed.
Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis have not resumed attacks on international shipping in the Red Sea since the United States and Israel began bombing Iran. The Houthis did recently resume attacks, however, against Israel. The question is why the Houthis have not supported Iran by resuming the disruption of shipping through the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb choke point, putting even greater pressure on oil prices.
The reasons why the Houthis have held back so far include (1) they may be holding fire in order to serve as a strategic card to be played later by Iran; (2) they experienced earlier bombing by the United States that resulted in significant damage and don't want to deal with that situation again; (3) they see value in maintaining the detente they have with Saudi Arabia; and (4) they control a large civilian population which they don't want to endanger by attacks from Saudi Arabia or the United States.
The author also identifies four possible triggers that could lead to a resumption of Houthi attacks on international shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.
The Times of Israel published on 28 March 2026 an article titled "Houthi Missile Attack on Israel Stokes Fears of Renewed Strikes on Red Sea Shipping."
Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen launched missile and drone attacks on Israel on 28 March, marking the first Houthi response since the United States and Israel began bombing Iran. The strikes raise the specter of renewed Houthi attacks to disrupt international shipping in the Red Sea. About 12 percent of world trade passes through the Suez Canal and Red Sea.
Caixin Global published on 17 March 2026 an article titled "Chinese Supertanker Changes Route and Takes Oil Without Passing through Hormuz."
A Chinese supertanker originally scheduled to load crude oil in the UAE rerouted to the Saudi Arabian Red Sea port of Yanbu. Other vessels are taking a similar action, causing a bottleneck at the port, which is served by an oil pipeline with limited capacity.
Foreign Policy published on 11 March 2026 an analysis titled "Why Haven't the Houthis Fired?" by Fatima Abo Alasrar.
In 2025, Israeli airstrikes killed Iranian-backed Houthi Prime Minister Ahmed el-Rahawi and other key officials. US airstrikes significantly degraded their military capacity.
Iran is now bombing Arab cities, resulting is less enthusiasm by the Houthis to support Tehran. The Houthis also fear that Iranian attacks on the UAE and Saudi Arabia will drive them closer together, possibly recreating the original alliance against the Houthis. While this changing political situation in the region does not guarantee the Houthis will stay out of the conflict, it has given the leadership reason to tread carefully.
Aljazeera published on 7 March 2026 an article titled "Why Yemen's Houthis Are Staying Out of Israel-US Fight with Iran--for Now."
Since the beginning of Operation Epic Fury, Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis have limited their support for Tehran to rhetoric and a mass protest denouncing the US-Israeli strikes. The Houthis seem to fear Israel intelligence and the possibility of leadership decapitation. At the same time, the Houthi leader, Abdel-Malik al-Houthi, said his group's engagement in the war could occur at any moment depending on developments.
The Hause of Saud, a Saudi Royal Family news and information platform, posted on 6 March 2026 an analysis titled "The Houthi Trigger--Why Yemen's Decision Could Be More Dangerous Than the Iran War Itself" by Abdul Mohammed.
In an excellent and timely analysis, the author explains that the Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen are debating whether to join the Iran war. If they resume attacks on Red Sea international shipping alongside the Hormuz closure, 28 percent of global oil trade faces simultaneous disruption.
The Houthis are engaged in the single most important strategic decision facing any non-state actor in the current conflict. Their choice to enter or abstain from the Iran war will determine whether the world faces an unprecedented dual-chokepoint crisis, whether Saudi Arabia's $500 billion NEOM megaproject becomes a frontline target, and whether the global economy tips from disruption into recession.
The Houthis must decide whether to join Iran in opposing Operation Epic Fury or abandon Iran. There are apparently sharp disagreements among Houthi factions over how to respond.
The Congressional Research Service published on 20 February 2026 a brief titled "Yemen, Conflict, Red Sea Security, and U.S. Policy" by Christopher M. Blanchard.
This is a summary of U.S. policy during the Trump administration in Yemen and security issues in the Red Sea.
The National Institute Press published on 3 February 2026 a commentary titled "What Israel Sees in Somaliland" by Ilan Berman, American Foreign Policy Council.
The commentary concludes that Israel's recognition of Somaliland provides it with a strategic foothold across from Yemen, greater proximity to the ongoing threat posed by the Houthis, a deeper stake in Red Sea security, and the potential to expand its influence in Africa.
The Washington Post published on 21 January 2026 an article titled "How Egypt Is Reviving the Suez Canal after Maritime Attacks Sank Traffic" by Claire Parker and Heba Farouk Mahfouz.
Attacks beginning in 2023 by the Houthis in Yemen on international shipping in the Red Sea interrupted maritime traffic through the Suez Canal, forcing most ships to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope. The Suez Canal provided Egypt in 2023 with $10.2 billion in revenue and accounted for 12 to 15 percent of global maritime trade.
The Houthis have ended most attacks, maritime traffic is increasing, and Suez Canal revenue for Egypt is picking up. If the Gaza ceasefire holds, international shipping through the Red Sea and Suez Canal is expected to increase further, adding to Egyptian revenue.
The Week magazine published on 6 December 2025 an article titled "Battle of Sea: Bulk Carrier 'Bobic' Fends Off 15 Pirate Boats Twice; Netizens Call It Swarm Attack."
The Barbados-flagged, Turkish-owned bulk carrier was attacked on 5 December in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait by 15 small boats of unknown origin. The armed security team on the bulk carrier managed to repel all 15 boats; there were no casualties and the bulk carrier continued to its next port of call.
The Defense Post published on 7 November 2025 an article titled "Pirate Attack Off Somali Coast Fuels Fears of Comeback."
This past week there were 3 unsuccessful attacks on international shipping off Somalia by suspected pirates. After a lengthy hiatus, it raises the question if piracy is returning to the region.
Newsweek published on 5 November 2025 an article titled "China's Navy Stages Show of Force Near Red Sea" by Ryan Chan.
The PLA Navy (PLAN) has been sending anti-piracy task forces to the Gulf of Aden since 2008. The PLAN recently staged an unusual handover by bringing together at the same time the 3 ships of the 47th Escort Task Group and the 3 ships of the replacement 48th Escort Task Group. Each Escort Task Group consisted of a destroyer, a frigate, and a supply ship.
The Associated Press published on 1 October 2025 an article titled "Yemen's Houthi Rebels Claim Missile Attack on Dutch-flagged Ship in the Gulf of Aden" by Jon Gambrell.
Yemen's Houthi rebels claim to have attacked with a Cruise missile a Dutch-flagged cargo ship in the Gulf of Aden on 1 October, leaving it ablaze and adrift. The 19 crew members evacuated the ship.
The Associated Press published on 8 September 2025 an article titled "Commercial Shipping Likely Cut Red Sea Cables that Disrupted Internet Access, Experts Say" by Jon Gambrell.
A commercial ship dragging an anchor likely cut the four undersea cables in the Red Sea that disrupted internet access in Africa, Asia, and the Middle East.
Military.com posted on 4 September 2025 an article titled "Suspected Attack by Yemen's Houthis Targets Ship in Red Sea After Missiles Fire on Israel" by Jon Gambrell.
Yemen's Houthi rebels targeted and nearly hit a ship in the Red Sea on 4 September. There have been other Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping in recent days.
