Africa's Geopolitical Realignment

 Global Views World published on 10 August 2026 a commentary titled "Africa's 2026 Geopolitics: China's $282B Pull" by Alonso Reyes.  

The author argues Africa's geopolitical alignment is undergoing significant transformation by moving away from traditional Western allies and towards emerging powers such as China, India, Russia, and the Gulf States.

But this is not a zero-sum game.  African leaders are not choosing sides.  They are diversifying their partnerships to maximize their own national interests.

Open Access E-Book on Red Sea Region

 The Doha, Qatar-based Middle East Council on Global Affairs published in February 2026 an open access E-book titled "The Red Sea: Divided by Water, United by Opportunities" edited by Dalia Ghanem, Mehari Taddele Maru, Luigi Narbone, and Carlo Palleschi.

This book provides a comprehensive analysis that breaks down the silos between Middle Eastern countries (MECs) and the Horn of Africa (HOA).  It argues that it is impossible to understand the region's trajectory by looking at one side of the Red Sea in isolation and examines interactions between the MECs and the HOA.  It seeks to align visions and identify concrete steps toward realizing the vision of a region that, though divided by waters, is united by opportunities.  

Africa Youth Survey: Perceptions of China and US

 The Ichikowitz Family Foundation just published its massive African Youth Survey 2026.  It held face-to-face interviews with about 5,000 Africans aged 18-24 from 16 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa.  

It covers many issues, but the focus here is perceptions of China and the United States.  African youth see China (79 percent) and the United States (81 percent) as the most influential foreign actors, although China's influence is seen as somewhat more positive.

The survey looked at the influence of the US, China, Brazil, EU, UK, Germany, France, India, and Russia.  The only country whose influence was seen as less positive than the United States (85 percent) was Russia (83 percent).  

About 3 in 5 youth are optimistic about Africa's future during the Trump administration, especially on military support and security.  Just under half believe the closure of USAID will negatively impact their country, with healthcare and disease prevention seen as the areas most affected.  

China and India are increasingly viewed as more favorable partners than the United States, a sentiment shaped in part by the return of the Trump administration.  

Is the West Losing Out in the Seychelles?

 The Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies published on 23 July 2026 an analysis titled "Losing Control of the West's Longstanding Interests in Seychelles" by Wojciech Pawlus.

The author suggests that the West is losing out in the democratic Indian Ocean archipelago of Seychelles to India, China, Russia, and the Gulf States.  He believes the current government is becoming more autocratic and urges Washington, Brussels, London, and Paris to reach out before it is too late.

Oil Tankers Avoiding South End of Red Sea Following Houthi Threats

 The Indian Express published on 22 July 2026 an article titled "India-bound Oil Tanker Takes U-turn in Red Sea after Houthi Threat."

Two oil tankers headed south for India and one for China toward the Bab el-Mandeb choke point from the Saudi oil terminal of Yanbu in the Red Sea turned around and headed north through the Suez Canal following threats from the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen.

The tankers must now transit the Mediterranean Sea, sail around Africa, and pass the Cape of Good Hope before reaching India or China, adding significantly to shipping costs.  These are the first Saudi oil laden tankers to respond to the Houthi threat. 

Another oil tanker scheduled to load Saudi crude at Yanbu by entering the Red Sea through the Bab el-Mandeb choke point turned back off the coast of Oman.     

China in the Indian Ocean

 The Australian Strategic Policy Institute published in June 2026 a report titled "Pressure Points Part 3: China in the Pacific and Indian Oceans" by Joe Keary, Rajeswari Pillai Rajagopalan, and Linus Cohen.  

The study contains a discussion on mapping China's security engagement, trends and analysis, China's growing presence, how major players are responding, and China's future in the Indian Ocean.  

Protecting Cable Laying Ships in Gulf of Aden and Off Somalia

 List 25 published on 11 July 2026 an analysis titled "Navies Protect Cable Ships from Pirate Skiffs: The Full Story" by Anant Gupta.

Fiber-optic cable laying ships in the Gulf of Aden, Gulf of Guinea, and waters off Somalia are especially vulnerable to pirate attacks.  This analysis explains why they are vulnerable and efforts to protect them as they perform their vital functions.

China's Role in Guinea's Booming Economy

 Ecofin Agency published on 22 June 2026 an article titled "Guinea Is Africa's Fastest-growing Economy: The Boom Is Real--but Narrow" by Idriss Linge.

Due mostly to the export of bauxite and iron ore, Guinea is Africa's fastest-growing economy in 2026 at 8.8 percent.  Guinea exports annually about $14.5 billion of raw materials; China is the largest importer at $4.5 billion.  

The risk for Guinea is a reliance on bauxite and iron ore exports, a lack of processing of these minerals at home, and the relative lack of intra-African trade.  A drop in commodity prices could severely damage Guinea's economy.  

Major Fishing Powers Fail to Sign Mombasa Declaration

Oceana published on 17 June 2026 a news release titled "Sixteen Countries Adopt Mombasa Declaration to Advance Fisheries Transparency and Combat Illegal Fishing." 

Sixteen countries adopted the Mombasa Declaration at the 11th Our Ocean Conference committing to advance global fisheries transparency and strengthen efforts to combat illegal, unreported, and unregulated fishing.  The countries that signed are Belgium, Cameroon, Chile, the Dominican Republic, France, Gabon, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Liberia, Panama, Papua New Guinea, Peru, Republic of Congo, Somalia, and South Korea.  

Maritimes Crimes published on 19 June 2026 an article titled "Kenya: Illegal Fishing Fight Gains Mombasa Backing."

The article notes that the world's most significant fishing powers, who represent a major share of global catches, did not sign the Mombasa Declaration.  They include China, Indonesia, Russia, India, Vietnam, and the United States. 

Seychelles More Positive on India and China than US

 Afrobarometer posted on 1 June 2026 a news release titled "Majority of Seychellois Welcome the Influence of India and China, Favour Neutrality in the Russia-Ukraine War."

Favorable perceptions of China's influence on Seychelles have increased significantly in recent years while those of the United States have fallen.  An overwhelming majority of Seychellois favor neutrality on Russia's war against Ukraine but more have a negative than positive perception of Russia's influence on Seychelles.  

Russian Trade and Investment Lags in Africa

 The Intel Drop posted on 31 March 2026 an article titled "Russia-Africa Summit: Russia's New Chapter on Africa Trade and Economic Collaboration" by Kester Kenn Klomegah.

If Russia intends to be a major player in Africa, it must open Russia to imports from Africa and increase significantly Russian foreign direct investment in the continent.  Otherwise, it will increasingly fall behind the economic engagement efforts of China, the United States, and India.  

China's Oil Tankers Take on Saudi Crude in Red Sea to Avoid Hormuz

 Caixin Global published on 17 March 2026 an article titled "Chinese Supertanker Changes Route and Takes Oil Without Passing through Hormuz."

A Chinese supertanker originally scheduled to load crude oil in the UAE rerouted to the Saudi Arabian Red Sea port of Yanbu.  Other vessels are taking a similar action, causing a bottleneck at the port, which is served by an oil pipeline with limited capacity.  

African Perceptions of China, US and Russia

 Afro Barometer posted on 27 February 2026 a survey titled "Popular Perceptions of Russia Lag Even as Its Influence grows Across Africa" by Aubrey Ghambi, Alfred Kwadzo, and Carolyn Logan.  

While most of the analysis is about the position of Russia in Africa, this survey of 38 African countries found that China received the best marks on positive influence (62 percent).  The United States has fallen behind at 52 percent positive rating, the European Union at 50 percent, India 39 percent, and Russia 36 percent.  The negative perceptions were more similar with China (17 percent), US (20 percent), EU (17 percent), India (20 percent), and Russia (23 percent).  

Is China's Media Campaign in Africa Working?

 Semafor published on 2 March 2026 an article titled "China's Media Push in Africa Has Largely Failed, Analysts Say" by Jeronimo Gonzalez.   

Although Africans perceived China's influence positively in a recent Afro Barometer poll, a Nigerian analyst believes Beijing's multi-billion media campaign to attract an audience has largely failed.  African audiences still prefer news from the West.

Comment:  The fact remains that the Afro Barometer poll of 29 countries indicates Africans have a more positive perception of China's influence in Africa than of US or EU influence.  The negative perception of all three is about the same.  

Russia Lags Behind in Africa

 Modern Diplomacy published on 27 February 2026 a commentary titled "Africa's Rise: The 21st Century Story that Leaves Russia Behind" by Kester Kenn Klomegah, an independent researcher.  

Russia has focused on a limited part of Africa.  About 80 percent of its trade is with North African countries and South Africa.  It has sent the Africa Corps to Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso.  But it has largely ignored the rest of the continent.

China Replaces South Africa as Primary Chrome Processor

 Discovery Alert posted on 1 March 2026 an analysis titled "China Becomes World's Leading Chrome Processor Overtaking South Africa" by Muflih Hidayat.  

Ferrochrome production, which is essential for stainless steel, requires consistent, energy-intensive processing.  Although South Africa is the source of much of the world's chrome ore, China's coal-based power generation is more reliable and cheaper than South Africa's electricity.  Consequently, processing of the ore has shifted from South Africa to China.

Indian Ocean: Economic and Strategic Corridors

 The Emirates Policy Center posted on 27 February 2026 an analysis titled "The Economics of Deterrence: How Corridors and Alliances Are Reshaping Geopolitics" by Ebtesam AlKetbi.  

The India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) and China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) are frameworks for redistributing centers of gravity and influence, diversifying states' strategic options, and embedding long-term investment commitments.

The world is shifting from rigid alignments to flexible alliances that integrate economy and technology with digital and maritime security.  Power is no longer defined solely by territorial control but by the management of flows--trade, energy, data, and capital.  A state that positions itself as a central node within these networks gains strategic weight.

In the Indian Ocean region, both the Indian-led IMEC and the better known and more expansive Chinese BRI are efforts to achieve these objectives.

China's Distant-Water Fishing in Indian Ocean Has Multiple Motives

 Mizzima, a non-profit foundation that supports social change and development in Myanmar, published on 28 January 2026 a commentary titled "Weaponising the Trawl: China's Maritime Militia, Distant-Water Fishing, and the Strategic Contest in the Indian Ocean."

Chinese fishing fleets maintain a massive presence in the Indian Ocean region.  What appears on the surface as fishing is, in practice, a grey-zone strategy, blending economic exploitation, intelligence gathering, and coercive presence to reshape the maritime realities without triggering open conflict.

In addition, see Sweekriti Pathak's "Fishing and Force: China's Dark Fleets and Maritime Militias" dated 29 January 2026 published by India's Observer Research Foundation.  

Can BRICS Lead to a New World Security Order?

 The Diplomat published on 27 January 2026 a commentary titled "BRICS Holds a Maritime Exercise at the Indo-Atlantic Crossroads - Without India" by Vrinda Malik, University of Delhi.  

The BRICS--China, India, Russia, Brazil, South Africa, Egypt, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Iran and the UAE--held a maritime exercise in South African waters in January.  This was the first time the BRICS expanded into the security domain.

India was the only member to totally absent itself from the naval exercise, suggesting a refusal to be part of a security exercise led by China.  Enduring China-India rivalry limits the BRICS' ability to emerge as a cohesive force capable of shaping a new world order.  

Maritime Multilateralism in the Indian Ocean

 The Diplomat published on 16 January 2026 an analysis titled "The New Age of Maritime Multilateralism in the Indian Ocean" by Gayathry Gopal, KCC Institute of Law, Greater Noida.  

The Indian Ocean is not dominated by a single power but by a multitude of actors of varying capabilities and interests, thereby making the emerging order not only polycentric but also highly fragile.  India is the resident and traditional security provider.  The United States has a strong presence in the Indian Ocean.  

No actor, however, matches China in the scale and pace of its expansion.  It now has embassies in all Indian Ocean littoral states, participates in all regional organizations, has invested in some 17 ports around the rim of the Indian Ocean, and has a permanent military base in Djibouti.

Increasingly, smaller states are engaging in the region.  This interplay of great power competition and small states' quest for influence has produced a polycentric security order that is dynamic and structurally fragmented.