Russian Foreign Minister Meets African Union Chairman

Fana Fact Check published on 7 July 2026 an article titled "AU, Russia Commitment to Deeper Partnership, Advance Africa-Led Solutions to Global Challenges." 

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov met with African Union Commission Chairperson Mahmoud Ali Youssouf in Addis Ababa on 7 July.  They expressed agreement on numerous mutual issues of concern and on many AU policies and goals.

Comment:  There were no commitments of tangible Russian assistance to the African Union or the challenges it faces in Africa today.  

Russian Trade and Investment Lags in Africa

 The Intel Drop posted on 31 March 2026 an article titled "Russia-Africa Summit: Russia's New Chapter on Africa Trade and Economic Collaboration" by Kester Kenn Klomegah.

If Russia intends to be a major player in Africa, it must open Russia to imports from Africa and increase significantly Russian foreign direct investment in the continent.  Otherwise, it will increasingly fall behind the economic engagement efforts of China, the United States, and India.  

Russia Tries to Improve Security in Africa's Sahel Region

 Al-Estiklal published on 29 August 2025 an article titled "Sahel States and Russia Establish Strategic Partnership: Messages and Objectives."

In mid-August, Russia invited the defense ministers of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger to Moscow to discuss strengthening security ties.  Russia reportedly is prepared to provide comprehensive support to these countries as they battle terrorist threats and armed groups.  The meeting also signaled the transfer of security support from Russia's Wagner Group to its Africa Corps replacement. 

Russia's Growing Influence in Africa

 South Africa's Institute for Security Studies published on 26 June 2024 an analysis titled "Russia's Growing Influence in Africa Calls for More Balanced Partnerships" by Denys Reva.

Russia's efforts to expand its influence in Africa have fallen short for 3 reasons.  First, its trade volume with Africa and especially its imports from Africa remain minimal.  Second, Ukraine's success in ending Russia's naval blockade in the Black Sea eased export restrictions on grain in 2023.  Third, the 2023 Russia-Africa Summit resulted in most African states opting for non-alignment.  Russia's greatest success in Africa comes from its bilateral security agreements, including training and arms transfers.

Russia and Sudan Reopen Talks on Possible Red Sea Military Base

 The Sudan Tribune published on 7 June 2024 an article titled "Sudan Vows to Activate Military, Economic Cooperation with Russia."

The deputy head of Sudan's Transitional Sovereign Council told Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov in St. Petersburg that Khartoum is interested in reviving the agreement on constructing a Russian naval base on the Red Sea while acknowledging the need to consider the opinions of other countries.  Red Sea littoral countries, Saudi Arabia and Egypt, and the United States have expressed opposition to the base.  Speaking on Russia's Arabic-language TV service, Sudan's finance minister said the discussions focus on a service center for Russian ships to obtain supplies.

The Middle East Eye published on 4 June 2024 an article titled "Sudanese Delegation Visits Russia as Red Sea Base Moves Forward" by Oscar Rickett.

Commenting on the same visit to St. Petersburg, the article points out that Russia's mercenary Wagner Group has been supportive for years of Sudan's paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), which is currently at war with the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF).  The Sudanese delegation in St. Petersburg speaks for the SAF, which has requested weapons and ammunition from Moscow.

Comment:  It will be interesting to see how Sudan and Russia deal with Moscow's conflicting support for both the RSF and the SAF.  Nor does there appear to be agreement yet on what a Russian naval base on Sudan's Red Sea coast would look like.  

Wagner Group Expected to Remain in Africa After Leader's Death

 Aljazeera published on 26 August 2023 an article titled "Charismatic Leader Is Gone but Wagner Will Survive in Africa, Analysts Say" by Ope Adetayo.  

African governments that have been receiving the services of the mercenary Wagner Group fully expect the relationship will continue in spite of the death of its leader Yevgeniy Prigozhin and his top lieutenant.  

Wagner Group's Challenges in Russia Offer Opportunity for West in Africa

 Foreign Policy published on 9 August 2023 a commentary titled "Africa After Prigozhin Is an Opportunity for the West" by Jaynisha Patel.  

The lack of clarity in Russia for the future of the Wagner Group exposes the dangers of reliance on an unpredictable partner by African governments.  This provides an opportunity for the West to improve its relations with these nations.  

Great Powers and the Coup in Niger

 Foreign Policy published on 2 August 2023 a commentary titled "Who Benefits from Niger's Coup?" by Samuel Ramani.  

The United States and France condemned the coup in Niger and reaffirmed President Mohamed Bazoum's legitimacy.  China issued a more neutral statement of concern and emphasized the safety of its nationals.  Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov vaguely supported the restoration of constitutional order while Wagner Group chief Yevgeniy Prigozhin described the coup as a victory against Western colonialism and offered the services of his organization to the Nigerien military.

Despite some public demonstrations favoring Russia and Putin, Niger has few links with Moscow and Russia remains an unknown quantity for Nigerien officials. Nevertheless, the Wagner Group may be a siren song for the new military leaders.  China is the second largest investor in Niger after France and deeply involved in the oil and uranium sectors. China will be reluctant to abandon these projects.     

Can Africa and China Help End the Russia-Ukraine War?

 Aljazeera published on 27 July 2023 an article titled "Can Africa and China Help End the Russia-Ukraine War?" by Nils Adler.  

There will likely be no peace negotiations soon as neither Ukraine nor Russia is prepared to cede territory.  Eventually, China's influence over Russia and Africa's relative neutrality could make them well-placed to mediate between Kyiv and Moscow.  

Russia's Wagner Group Ready to Move into Niger

 Reuters published on 29 July 2023 an article titled "'Exiled' Prigozhin Hails Niger Coup, Touts Wagner Services" by Andrew Osborn.  

Russia's mercenary Wagner Group leader, Yevgeniy Prigozhin, reportedly offered the services of his organization to the military leaders who deposed democratically-elected President Mohamed Bazoum in Niger.   

Eritrea: China, Russia, and the United States

 The Hudson Institute published in July 2023 a policy memo titled "Eritrea's Growing Ties with China and Russia Highlight America's Inadequate Approach in East Africa" by Joshua Meservey.  

The author argues that China and Russia have recently increased their engagement with Eritrea while American influence in the region is slipping.  Eritrea's increasingly close relations with Beijing and Moscow likely mean that the situation in the Horn of Africa will soon get even worse for Washington.  

Putin's Cancellation of Visit to BRICS Summit Avoids South African Crisis with US

 The New York Times published on 19 July 2023 an article titled "South Africa Skirts Dilemma After Putin Cancels Visit" by John Eligon.  

The decision by Russian President Vladimir Putin to cancel his visit to the BRICS Summit in South Africa and attend by videoconference has removed a potentially damaging issue between Pretoria and Washington following an already strained relationship. 

Comment:  The decision by President Putin also demonstrates that charges leveled by the International Criminal Court can have real world consequences.   

South Africa Puts Off Decision on Putin Visit until Russia-Africa Summit

 The Associated Press published on 14 July 2023 an article titled "South Africa Urges Putin to Not Attend August Summit Due to International Arrest Warrant" by Gerald Imray.

The International Criminal Court (ICC) has issued an arrest warrant for Russian President Vladimir Putin for war crimes involving the abduction of children from Ukraine.  South Africa is hosting in August the BRICS summit, which Putin was planning to attend.  South Africa is signatory to the convention creating the ICC and technically is responsible for arresting him if he visits South Africa.

In an effort to avoid this dilemma, South Africa suggested that the BRICS summit move to China, be held virtually, or that Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov attend in lieu of Vladimir Putin.  Russia rejected all three suggestions.  South Africa has postponed a final decision until the Russia-Africa Summit in St. Petersburg on 27-28 July.  

Russia Tries to Reset Relations with Africa

 Opinion Nigeria posted on 17 July 2023 a commentary titled "Russia Shaping Its Future Partnership with Africa" by Kester Kenn Klomegah.  

The author reviews Russia-Africa relations in the runup to the Russia-Africa Summit in St. Petersburg later this month.  He concludes that "Russia's influence in Africa, despite efforts towards resuscitation remains marginal."

More on Future of Wagner Group in Africa

 Aljazeera published on 1 July 2023 an article titled "After Mutiny, Clouds Hover over Wagner Operations in Africa" by Ope Adetayo.  

African governments such as the Central African Republic and Mali that rely on Russia's Wagner Group for security face an uncertain future.  The Wagner mutiny has become a cautionary tale for African leaders.

Unwinding Wagner Group and Implications for Africa

 The Washington Post published on 1 July 2023 an article titled "After Mutiny, Kremlin Looks to Unwind Holdings Tied to Wagner Mercenary Boss" by Mary Ilyushina, Rachel Chason, Robyn Dixon, and John Hudson.  

Russia has sought to reassure African leaders who relied on the Wagner Group for security that the company will continue to operate, but it is not clear that will be possible while also cutting off Yevgeniy Prigozhin from Russian government funding.  There are other private military companies in Russia, but none seem positioned to replace Wagner in Africa.  

A Russian investigative expert on the Wagner Group argues that in the absence of Prigozhin, his conglomerate of numerous companies will either cease to exist or it will degenerate into something completely different, incapable of the same level of activity.

The Future of the Wagner Group in Africa

 Deutsche Welle published on 30 June 2023 an article titled "Wagner Group in Africa: What's Its Future after the Mutiny?" by Philipp Sandner.  

Russia's position on the Wagner Group in Africa is becoming more nuanced.  Now Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov is saying that the future of Wagner's contracts in Africa depends on the African nations that have sought their services.  At the same time, this is a lucrative business for Russia that it does not want to lose.  Wagner also operates with many shell companies that it can rebrand or manipulate.   

Eritrea Aligns Ever More Closely with Russia and China

 TASS, the Russian News Agency, published on 31 May 2023 a press release titled "Putin Begins Talks with Visiting Eritrean President."

This is the first ever meeting between Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki and Russian President Vladimir Putin.  

Comment:  The visit follows Eritrea's support for Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the only African country to take such a position.  Russia has been seeking a military base in the Red Sea.  It would not be surprising if this issue is on the agenda.

The visit to Moscow comes soon after President Isaias made a state visit to China.  Isaias has been supportive of China's core domestic concerns such as Hong Kong, Tibet, human rights, and Xinjiang.  For accounts of his visit to China see Aggrey Mutambo's "Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki in State Visit to China" published by The East African on 20 May and Salem Solomon's "In State Visit, Eritrea and China Signal Deeper Partnership" published by the Voice of America on 22 May.

A New "Cold War" in Africa?

 The New York Times published on 19 March 2023 an article titled "A 'New Cold War' Looms in Africa as U.S. Pushes Against Russian Gains" by Declan Walsh.  

The article suggests that heightening great power rivalry in Africa resembles the Cold War when the United States and Soviet Union backed opposing African leaders.  

A Book Length Analysis of Russia in Africa

 The Africa Center for Strategic Studies published on 22 February 2023 a book review titled "Intervening to Undermine Democracy in Africa: Russia's Playbook for Influence" by Joseph Siegle.  

This is a review of Samuel Ramani's timely book titled Russia in Africa: Resurgent Great Power or Bellicose Pretender.  Russia's strategy in Africa is to protect repressive actors so they can deploy coercion without hindrance and so retain power.