Eritrea After Isaias Afwerki

 Twin Cities, Minnesota radio station Voices of Ethiopia posted on 21 August 2026 a commentary titled "After Isaias: Could Eritrea's Succession Crisis Destabilize the Red Sea?"

Since independence in 1995, Isaias Afwerki has been the center of power in Eritrea.  This commentary raises the question whether Eritrea can undergo a transfer of power without triggering a struggle among the military, security establishment, political elite, and competing regional interests--and whether a potential struggle could spill beyond Eritrea's borders.  Internal fragmentation, a proxy struggle along the Red Sea, and even normalization of relations with Ethiopia are all possible.

 

US Policy Challenges in the Horn of Africa

 Responsible Statecraft posted on 12 August 2026 an article titled "How the Egypt-Ethiopia Feud Could Upend Trump's Plans in Africa" by Jonathan Fenton Harvey.

The United States is sending mixed and confusing signals to Egypt, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Sudan, Somalia, and Somaliland on complex relations in the region dealing with allocation of Nile waters and Ethiopia's quest for access to the sea.

Ethiopia: Is Tigray Following the Eritrean Example?

 Ethiopia Insight published on 10 August 2026 a commentary titled "The Eritrea Script Exposes Ethiopia's Unity Farce" by Asfaw Gedamu, independent writer.

This is a critique of the National Dialogue process now underway in Ethiopia, and especially the absence of Tigray from the Dialogue.  The author discusses the increasing distance between Tigray and the rest of Ethiopia and draws parallels with Eritrean independence.  He concludes that the argument for Tigray remaining within the federation is becoming harder to sustain.   

Podcast on Horn of Africa

 The Somali Media Network posted on 8 August 2026 a 42-minute podcast with me hosted by Ismail Gorse on the Horn of Africa.  

This is a wide-ranging discussion of current issues in the Horn of Africa and US policy with a special focus on Somalia and Somaliland.

Ethiopia: Review of Fighting in Western Tigray

 AEIs Critical Threats Africa File posted on 6 August 2026 an article titled "Tigray on the Precipice" by Michael DeAngelo and Liam Karr.

The Tigray People's Liberation Front and the Ethiopian National Defense Forces engaged in western Tigray on 1 August, each accusing the other of initiating the conflict.  The battle ended quickly but tension remains high in the region.  

Open Access E-Book on Red Sea Region

 The Doha, Qatar-based Middle East Council on Global Affairs published in February 2026 an open access E-book titled "The Red Sea: Divided by Water, United by Opportunities" edited by Dalia Ghanem, Mehari Taddele Maru, Luigi Narbone, and Carlo Palleschi.

This book provides a comprehensive analysis that breaks down the silos between Middle Eastern countries (MECs) and the Horn of Africa (HOA).  It argues that it is impossible to understand the region's trajectory by looking at one side of the Red Sea in isolation and examines interactions between the MECs and the HOA.  It seeks to align visions and identify concrete steps toward realizing the vision of a region that, though divided by waters, is united by opportunities.  

Ethiopia's Economic Outlook

 Nanyang Technological University published on 6 July 2026 an article titled "Assessing Ethiopia's Economic Reform and Outlook" by Rafiq Raji.  

Ethiopia's economic growth since 2022 has averaged about 8.5 percent and is projected to maintain that rate at least until 2030, assuming there are no catastrophic events such as a war in Tigray region or with Eritrea.  Inflation is trending down and Ethiopia has restructured its significant level of debt.  The country's exports are doing well.  

The Horn of Africa Faces a Looming Polycrisis

 The Conversation published on 16 July 2026 a discussion summary titled "Africa's Greater Horn Region Is Facing a Looming Polycrisis Fueled by Conflict, Prices, Climate and Disease" by Daniel Maxwell, Alex de Waal, Luka Kuol, Merry Fitzpatrick, and Peter Hailey.

The impacts of a strengthening El Nino and effects of the war in Iran combined with existing prolonged crisis and conflict in the Horn of Africa are leading potentially to a major, multicountry polycrisis.

US Diplomacy in the Horn of Africa

 Aljazeera published on 21 July 2026 an article titled "Who Is Driving Diplomacy in the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea, and Why?"

US senior adviser for Africa, Massad Boulos, recently held meetings in Cairo with the foreign ministers of Somalia and Eritrea as part of an effort to prevent another regional crisis or build a broader diplomatic framework.

Comment:  These meetings may well have been routine diplomacy, constituting less than is implied in the Aljazeera lead to the article. 

Urgent Diplomacy Needed to Calm Down Horn of Africa

 The International Crisis Group published on 17 July 2026 a commentary titled "As the Horn of Africa Nears Boiling Point, Time for Urgent Diplomacy" by Alan Boswell. 

Given the uncertainty about Washington's level of commitment to bring peace to the Horn of Africa, additional Gulf States, the European Union, the United Nations, Norway, and the United Kingdom should step up their engagement.  

Is Ethiopia Sliding Toward a New Tigray War?

 The International Crisis Group posted on 10 July 2026 a 40-minute podcast titled "Is Ethiopia Sliding Toward a New Tigray War?" with Alan Boswell and Payton Knopf, Dialogue Advisory Group and former U.S. Deputy Special Envoy for the Horn of Africa.  

They discuss the background and status of the Pretoria Agreement and the rising risk of renewed war in Ethiopia's Tigray Region.  They look at how unresolved disputes over territory, Tigray's federal status, internal divisions, and worsening Ethiopia-Eritrea tensions could push the region back toward war.  They also unpack why escalating regional dynamics, including the war in Sudan, could make a renewed conflict even more explosive, why full-scale war is not inevitable, and what practical off ramps still remain.

An Analysis of Ethiopia's Parliamentary Elections

 The Emirates Policy Center published on 7 July 2026 an analysis titled "Ethiopia's Seventh Elections: Challenges of Internal Stability and Repercussions on Regional Politics."

The huge victory by the ruling Prosperity Party in Ethiopia's recent parliamentary elections did not resolve the crisis of political legitimacy, as the electoral process remained characterized by a precarious security environment, inequitable competition, and a significant lack of voter turnout in numerous regions.

Ethiopia Not Concerned About Counter Alliance

The Sudan Tribune published on 8 July 2026 an article titled "Ethiopia Faces No Threat from Regional Alliance, PM Abiy Says." 

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed dismissed concerns over an alleged growing alliance of Eritrea, Sudan, and the Tigray People's Liberation Front, noting that his country is improving its defensive capabilities.

The Scramble for the Red Sea

 The International Crisis Group posted on 29 June 2026 a 41-minute podcast titled "The Scramble for the Red Sea Is Not Cooling Down" by Alan Boswell with Federico Donelli, University of Trieste and author of a new book on the topic.

The scramble for control in the Red Sea region began during the Cold War and increased in intensity in the 21st century.  There are now many new actors in the Red Sea.  Middle powers have become as significant as major powers.  

Russia has been seeking, so far without success, a military base in the region for years.  China established a military base in Djibouti to protect its interests in the region and to extend global power.  The Gulf states, especially Saudi Arabia, have become much more engaged in the Red Sea.

The US/Israeli war against Iran has underscored the importance of the Red Sea for international shipping.  The European Union is the one grouping that should be more engaged in the region than it is.  

The Ethiopian-Egyptian Cold War

 Fronts, an independent online news source owned by a privately held Czech company, posted on 15 June 2026 a commentary titled "The Egypt-Ethiopia Cold War Is Key to the Horn's Growing Conflicts" by Liam Karr.

The author suggests a "cold war" between Ethiopia and Egypt is a battle for regional dominance, touches nearly every conflict in the Horn of Africa, and is fueling tensions in an already unstable region.  Control over Nile waters and landlocked Ethiopia's desire to obtain access to the sea loom large in this cold war.

Egypt and Eritrea Strengthen Relations

 Daily News Egypt published on 10 June 2026 an article titled "Egypt, Eritrea Say Red Sea Security Is Exclusive Responsibility of Littoral States."

The foreign ministers of Egypt and Eritrea, meeting in Cairo, recently stressed that the security and management of the Red Sea remain the exclusive responsibility of its littoral states, completely rejecting any attempts by non-littoral parties to impose security arrangements or to impose their maritime access in violation of the provisions of international law.

Comment:  This comment is clearly aimed at landlocked Ethiopia, which is trying to obtain an outlet to the Red Sea.  

Djibouti's Strategic Location in the Red Sea Region

 The International Crisis Group posted on 4 June 2026 a 26-minute podcast titled "Tiny Djibouti and Its Prime Real Estate" with Alan Boswell and Samson Abebe Bezabeh, University of Hong Kong.  

They discuss Djibouti's role as a "garrison state," how it benefits from hosting foreign military bases, and why its strategic position may be changing as Ethiopia seeks alternative sea access.

Short Video Summarizing Sudan Conflict

 The International Crisis Group posted on 1 June 2026 a five and one-half minute video titled "Divided Sudan, Elusive Peace."

The video provides a good, summary update of the current situation in the Sudan conflict.

Ethiopia's Tigray Tinderbox

The International Crisis Group (ICG) posted on 27 May 2026 a commentary titled "Flashpoint: Ethiopia's Tigray Tinderbox" by Comfort Ero. 

ICG President Comfort Ero warns that federal Ethiopian and Tigrayan troops are on the verge of a return to conflict, which could quickly spread to neighboring Eritrea and Sudan.

Pre-election Challenges Facing Ethiopia

 Foreign Affairs published on 26 May 2026 an article titled "The War in Ethiopia Isn't Over" by Hilary Matfess, University of Denver.

As Ethiopia prepares to hold national elections on June 1, Tigray Region remains combustible, and insurgencies continue in several other regions.