Ethiopia: Is Tigray Following the Eritrean Example?

 Ethiopia Insight published on 10 August 2026 a commentary titled "The Eritrea Script Exposes Ethiopia's Unity Farce" by Asfaw Gedamu, independent writer.

This is a critique of the National Dialogue process now underway in Ethiopia, and especially the absence of Tigray from the Dialogue.  The author discusses the increasing distance between Tigray and the rest of Ethiopia and draws parallels with Eritrean independence.  He concludes that the argument for Tigray remaining within the federation is becoming harder to sustain.   

Rising Tension in Ethiopia's Tigray Region

 AEI's Critical Threats Africa File posted on 7 May 2026 an article titled "TPLF Takes Control of Tigray" by Michael DeAngelo.  

The Tigray People's Liberation Front reinstated the pre-Tigray war regional government, effectively voiding the Pretoria peace agreement that ended the Tigray war in 2022.  This action creates a rival body to replace the Tigray Interim Administration (TIA).  It also sets up a showdown with the Ethiopian federal government, which supports the TIA, and increases the risk of military confrontation.  

Ethiopia's TPLF Threatens to Consolidate Control Over Tigray Region

AEI's Critical Threats Africa File posted on 23 April 2026 an analysis titled "Ethiopia" by Michael DeAngelo.   

The Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) under the control of hardliner Debretsion Gebremichael, announced its intention to reinstate the pre-Tigray war regional government, which would effectively void the Pretoria peace agreement that ended the Tigray war in 2022.

TPLF control of Tigray region would increase the risk of large-scale armed conflict between the federal government and the TPLF.

War in Ethiopia's Tigray Region Averted for Time Being

 The AEI's Critical Threats Africa File posted on 9 April 2026 an article titled "Ethiopia - Tigray" by Michael DeAngelo and Liam Karr.

The Ethiopian Federal Government extended the mandate of the Tigray Interim Administration (TIA) by one year on 8 April.  This may buy time for both sides and avert a return to war in Tigray Region.  

Looming Civil War in Ethiopia

AEI's Critical Threats Africa File published on 13 March 2025 an analysis titled "Looming Civil War in Africa."

A battle for legitimacy between the Tigray People's Liberation Movement (TPLF) and the Tigray Interim Administration (TIA) threatens to ignite a war in Tigray Region that could escalate into a proxy or regional war between Ethiopia and Eritrea.