Decline of the US State Department

 Small Wars Journal published on 11 August 2026 a commentary titled "The War of the Pen: What America's State Department Is Ignoring" by Julian McBride.

The author laments the absence of ambassadors at numerous US embassies, the State Department's waning soft power, the rise of middle and regional powers at the expense of the United States, and the increasing influence of China in the Global South.

He believes US diplomatic setbacks are self-inflicted but can be reversed through concerted action and the US position restored in the Global South.  

Open Access E-Book on Red Sea Region

 The Doha, Qatar-based Middle East Council on Global Affairs published in February 2026 an open access E-book titled "The Red Sea: Divided by Water, United by Opportunities" edited by Dalia Ghanem, Mehari Taddele Maru, Luigi Narbone, and Carlo Palleschi.

This book provides a comprehensive analysis that breaks down the silos between Middle Eastern countries (MECs) and the Horn of Africa (HOA).  It argues that it is impossible to understand the region's trajectory by looking at one side of the Red Sea in isolation and examines interactions between the MECs and the HOA.  It seeks to align visions and identify concrete steps toward realizing the vision of a region that, though divided by waters, is united by opportunities.  

Is the West Losing Out in the Seychelles?

 The Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies published on 23 July 2026 an analysis titled "Losing Control of the West's Longstanding Interests in Seychelles" by Wojciech Pawlus.

The author suggests that the West is losing out in the democratic Indian Ocean archipelago of Seychelles to India, China, Russia, and the Gulf States.  He believes the current government is becoming more autocratic and urges Washington, Brussels, London, and Paris to reach out before it is too late.

Urgent Diplomacy Needed to Calm Down Horn of Africa

 The International Crisis Group published on 17 July 2026 a commentary titled "As the Horn of Africa Nears Boiling Point, Time for Urgent Diplomacy" by Alan Boswell. 

Given the uncertainty about Washington's level of commitment to bring peace to the Horn of Africa, additional Gulf States, the European Union, the United Nations, Norway, and the United Kingdom should step up their engagement.  

US Connection to Sudan's Rapid Support Forces

 Reuters published on 15 July 2026 an in-depth article titled "The US Army Veteran and the Mystery Boeings Flying Sudan's War Routes" by Alexander Dziadosz, Reade Levinson, and David Lewis.  

Companies registered in Singapore and the UAE owned by a US government, and military contractor and US Army Special Forces veteran have been operating several Boeing aircraft linking regional supply routes of the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Sudan.  The United Nations has accused the RSF of genocide.  The United States has not sanctioned the companies.  

Changing Geopolitics in the Horn of Africa

 The Rift Valley Institute recently published a report titled "The New Geopolitics of Eastern Africa."

The British Institute of Eastern Africa, Chatham House, and the Rift Valley Institute convened a group of experts to discuss the ongoing transformation of geopolitics in the Horn of Africa.  This paper summarizes their conclusions, noting that the region is experiencing profound multi-decade shifts in its relationship with the wider world.  

The Scramble for the Red Sea

 The International Crisis Group posted on 29 June 2026 a 41-minute podcast titled "The Scramble for the Red Sea Is Not Cooling Down" by Alan Boswell with Federico Donelli, University of Trieste and author of a new book on the topic.

The scramble for control in the Red Sea region began during the Cold War and increased in intensity in the 21st century.  There are now many new actors in the Red Sea.  Middle powers have become as significant as major powers.  

Russia has been seeking, so far without success, a military base in the region for years.  China established a military base in Djibouti to protect its interests in the region and to extend global power.  The Gulf states, especially Saudi Arabia, have become much more engaged in the Red Sea.

The US/Israeli war against Iran has underscored the importance of the Red Sea for international shipping.  The European Union is the one grouping that should be more engaged in the region than it is.  

Turkey Extends Economic and Military Influence in Somalia

 The Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies published on 7 May 2026 an analysis titled "The New Scramble: Turkey, Somalia and the Battle for the Red Sea" by Matthew Chandler de Waal.

Turkey has become Somalia's foremost ally.  Camp TURKSOM, Ankara's largest overseas military base, has trained thousands of Somali special forces since 2017.  More recently, Turkey became engaged in a major project to develop Somalia's deepwater oil reserves.

Turkey is now looking to build a base in the Gulf of Aden at Laas Qoray, a port city that is contested by Somalia and the breakaway government of Somaliland.  A base in Laas Qoray would put Turkey in position to join a host of other nations with military bases at the south end of the Red Sea.

Regionalizing Sudan's Civil War

 The International Crisis Group posted on 11 March 2026 a commentary titled "Sudan's Devastating War Rages on as Regional Rivalries Deepen" by Shewit Woldemichael.  

As Sudan's civil war nears its fourth year, the conflict is steadily regionalizing into the Horn of Africa and Gulf States, making any settlement harder to achieve.  Supporting the Sudan Armed Forces are Egypt, Eritrea, Turkiye, Qatar, Iran, and Saudi Arabia.  The principal backer of the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces is the UAE.  The feud between the UAE and Saudi Arabia now risks deepening the intractable nature of the war.  

Growing Geopolitical Complexities in Red Sea Region

 Foreign Policy published on 27 January 2026 an article titled "Red Sea Rivalries Risk Unraveling the Horn of Africa" by Cameron Hudson and Liam Karr. 

The civil war in Sudan between the Sudan Armed Forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces is increasingly becoming a proxy war for regional players Ethiopia, Eritrea, Egypt, UAE, Turkey, Libya, and Saudi Arabia, among others.  The authors argue it is time for the Trump administration to designate a Senate-confirmed presidential special envoy for the Horn of Africa and Red Sea.  

Geopolitical Change in the Horn of Africa and the Gulf States

 African Arguments published on 21 January 2026 a commentary titled "The Horn and the Gulf: How a New Geopolitical Confluence Is Emerging" by Ngala Chome, former research fellow at Ghent University.

Israel's recognition of Somaliland is reverberating across the Red Sea.  Networks of influence in the Horn of Africa and Gulf States are resulting in new power configurations.  This is impacting traditional outside powers and changing the relations of newer ones with major consequences for the future of the region.  

Somalia Risks Becoming a Jihadist State

 The Africa Center for Strategic Studies published on 17 November 2025 an analysis titled "Somalia at Risk of Becoming a Jihadist State" by Matt Bryden, founder of Sahan, a policy and research center focused on the Horn of Africa.

The author has extensive experience in Somalia and Somaliland.  He says al-Shabaab now controls about 30 percent of Somalia's territory, far more than the federal government in Mogadishu, and poses a serious threat of taking the capital.  The federal government is heavily reliant on the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission for security.  

Somalia's economy is fractured and heavily dependent on three major ports of Kismayo, Mogadishu, and Bossaso while Berbera supports Somaliland.  The ports, in turn, empower different federal states that often defy central government authority.  The author concludes that Somalia faces a prospect that it may become an illiberal Islamist state.   

Prioritizing Sudan Policy in Washington

 Brookings published on 12 November 2025 a commentary titled "Sudan's Deadly Divide: The RSF and SAF's Reign of Terror" by Jeffrey Feltman, former US special envoy for the Horn of Africa. 

Referring to the Sudan Armed Forces and paramilitary Rapid Support Forces conflict as "fratricide," the author has disdain for both belligerents.  If the Trump administration hopes to achieve a cease fire, it needs to shift Sudan to a higher priority on Washington's already crowded agenda, including direct intervention by President Trump.   

Peacemaking Has Become More Difficult in the Horn of Africa

 Foreign Affairs published on 2 October 2025 an article titled "Sudan's War Is the Shape of Things to Come" by Alan Boswell, International Crisis Group.

The Quad (United States, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and UAE) has proposed a peace plan to end the conflict in Sudan.  The author questions whether the United States is prepared for the long-term engagement required to achieve the goals of the plan.  

The retreat from the region by the United States over the past 15 years has diminished its influence.  Once strong US engagement in the Horn of Africa is no longer the case, and the region is suffering the consequences.  

At the same time, regional middle powers are stepping in to fill the void.  Sudan has become the center for this middle power contest. Peacemaking has become even more difficult in a region where it already was a major challenge.  

Sudan Peace Talks Postponed

 AEI's Critical Threats Africa File published on 21 August 2025 an article titled "Sudan" by Ellery White and Liam Karr.  

The United States planned to hold peace talks in late July with the major external actors in the Sudan conflict Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE.  Last minute disagreements between the UAE and Egypt resulted in a postponement of the talks until at least September.

Gulf States and Turkey Become Major Players in East Africa and Horn

 The Africa Center for Strategic Studies published on 8 July 2025 a survey titled "Mapping Gulf State Actors' Expanding Engagements in East Africa."

The Gulf States, especially the UAE and Saudi Arabia, and Turkey are becoming increasingly important sources of investment and capital in the Horn of Africa and East Africa.

Gulf State Engagement in East Africa

 The Africa Center for Strategic Studies published on 8 July 2025 a study titled "Mapping Gulf State Actors' Expanding Engagements in East Africa."

The UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey have become the leading sources of capital, private sector engagement, and weapons flows into East Africa in recent years.  The UAE is by far the most engaged actor in East Africa with $47 billion in projects and about 60 percent of all Gulf region capital inflows. Saudi Arabia is second with an estimated $16 billion in investments across East Africa.

Trump Administration Pull Back from Africa Causing Shifting International Strategies

 The Africa Report published on 16 April 2025 an article titled "As Trump and China Disengage, Africa Turns to Gulf States, Says Carlos Lopes" by Carien du Plessis.  

Carlos Lopes, former head of the UN Economic Commission for Africa, commented recently that the Trump administration has disrupted China's Belt and Road Initiative and ties with Africa by focusing on opening an Artic Sea route and taking steps such as dismantling USAID.  Gulf States are beginning to fill the void in Africa.  The UAE, for example, has replaced China as the continent's largest investor.  But Lopes sees China as only pausing engagement and eventually returning in a major way.  

State Department Names Senior Advisor for Africa

 The U.S. Department of State announced on 1 April 2025 the appointment of Massad Boulos as "Senior Advisor for Africa."  He will make his first visit in this capacity to the Democratic Republic of Congo, Rwanda, Kenya, and Uganda.  Boulos also serves as Senior Advisor to the President on Arab and Middle Eastern Affairs.

Responsible Statecraft published on 2 April 2025 an article titled "Trump Tasks First Time Envoy with the Most Complex Africa Conflict" by Dan M. Ford.

The article provides background on the conflict in the eastern DRC where Boulos has been instructed to seek a durable peace.  The author also notes that Boulos' son, Michael, is married to President Trump's daughter, Tiffany.  

Comment:  As "Senior Advisor for Africa," Boulos apparently is not filling the position of Assistant Secretary of State for Africa.  The Trump administration has not yet named anyone to fill the latter position.  The distinction between "Senior Advisor for Africa" and Assistant Secretary of State for Africa is not clear.  

Are Sudanese Democracy Activists Increasingly Backing the Army?

 Foreign Policy published on 3 February 2025 a commentary titled "Why Sudanese Democracy Activists Are Now Backing the Army" by Yasir Zaidan, University of Washington.

As the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) gains ground against the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), young democracy activists are increasingly turning towards support of the Army.  The RSF is viewed as a foreign-backed militia responsible for heinous crimes.