Decline of the US State Department

 Small Wars Journal published on 11 August 2026 a commentary titled "The War of the Pen: What America's State Department Is Ignoring" by Julian McBride.

The author laments the absence of ambassadors at numerous US embassies, the State Department's waning soft power, the rise of middle and regional powers at the expense of the United States, and the increasing influence of China in the Global South.

He believes US diplomatic setbacks are self-inflicted but can be reversed through concerted action and the US position restored in the Global South.  

China's AI Systems Making Rapid Gains in Africa

 The New York Times published on 5 August 2026 an article titled "China's A.I. Is Surging Across Africa.  That Should Worry Silicon Valley" by Paul Mozur, Adam Satariano, and Aaron Krolik.

China's AI is surging in Africa where buyers look for the best possible system at the lowest possible cost.  The Chinese systems are publicly available to download and modify without payment or approval.  Xi Jinping is using AI as a form of Chinese soft power.

 

The Strategic Costs of Dismantling VOA; Revival Will Be Hard

 The Foreign Service Journal published in its July/August 2026 edition an article titled "When America Went Silent: The Strategic Costs of Dismantling VOA" by Elez Biberaji, 43-year veteran of VOA.

The effort by the Trump administration to shut down the U.S. Agency for Global Media (USAGM), which operates the Voice of America and sister media outlets, has eroded America's capacity to shape global understanding and ceded influence to competitors who weaponize information.

The Washingtonian published on 2 July 2026 an article titled "Reviving Voice of America Will be Difficult, Insiders Say" by Ike Allen.

As a result of a court decision and some funding by Congress, VOA is trying to return to service.  But only about 200 of its former 2,000 employees are at work and its effort is limited to a few languages.

The Trump administration is appealing the court order to restart VOA operations, and the matter is in limbo.  The situation at the VOA headquarters in downtown Washington has deteriorated so much that some fired staff believe it will not be possible to revive the organization, at least not during the Trump administration.    

US-China Competition in the Middle East and North Africa

 The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace published on 1 July 2026 an analysis titled "In the Middle East and North Africa, America and China Converge More Than They Diverge" by Amr Hamzawy and Kathryn Selfe.

Competition between the United States and China in the Middle East and North Africa is less a threat and more an opportunity.  The region has important geostrategic significance for both countries.  As great power competition develops globally, Washington and Beijing's positions in the region are increasingly converging.  

The United States and China are united by their primary interest in maintaining free trade in the region.  For both countries, a stable, peace-driven order is key.  Washington is also driven by interest in Israel's security; Beijing is similarly driven by China's need for oil and liquid natural gas.  These two interests are compatible and underscore the need for peace and stability in the region.  

Is Foreign Investment the Answer for American and Chinese Soft Power Influence in Africa?

Brookings published on 6 May 2026 a study titled "Foreign Investment Is Not Making Friends for China--or the US" by John F. McCauley, University of Maryland, Margaret M. Pearson, John L. Thornton China Center, and Xiaonan Wang, City University of New York - Baruch College. 

Drawing on over 750 Chinese and American foreign direct investment (FDI) projects in 23 African countries, the research challenges the assumption that it generates not only economic returns but also goodwill in the local community.  While proximity to a major power's investment increases its perceived influence in local communities and undermines that of its adversary, it also decreases affinity for the investing power.  

This reputational cost is not unique to China; U.S. investment triggers a strikingly similar backlash.  Unmet expectations around jobs and local economic benefits, heightened perceptions of corruption among local officials, and concerns about external influence erode the soft power dividends that both powers anticipate.  China and the United States must recognize that investing abroad can sabotage goodwill if projects are not constructed with local economic development in mind.   

 Comment: While the study offers a useful cautionary note about the impact of FDI, it is based on a narrow definition of the value of investment.  FDI can have positive effects on the economy that go well beyond the impact on the community in close proximity to the investment project.  FDI can add to a country's GDP, increase tax revenue, and have downstream economic benefits not captured in the nearby community.  While the negative results on reverse model preference identified in the study are revelatory, they are modest and probably skewed by a small number of egregiously flawed investment projects.   

Turkey Extends Economic and Military Influence in Somalia

 The Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies published on 7 May 2026 an analysis titled "The New Scramble: Turkey, Somalia and the Battle for the Red Sea" by Matthew Chandler de Waal.

Turkey has become Somalia's foremost ally.  Camp TURKSOM, Ankara's largest overseas military base, has trained thousands of Somali special forces since 2017.  More recently, Turkey became engaged in a major project to develop Somalia's deepwater oil reserves.

Turkey is now looking to build a base in the Gulf of Aden at Laas Qoray, a port city that is contested by Somalia and the breakaway government of Somaliland.  A base in Laas Qoray would put Turkey in position to join a host of other nations with military bases at the south end of the Red Sea.

Russia Expands Influence in Africa Ahead of 2026 Summit

 Ukraine's Mezha published on 10 February 2026 an article titled "Russia Expands Influence in Africa Ahead of 2026 Summit." 

Russia is sending more diplomatic staff to its embassies in Africa.  In 2025, some 35,000 African students studied in Russian universities.  Russia is ramping up its soft power across the continent.  

As UK and US Retreat from Africa, China Steps Up Media Effort

 The Independent published on 30 January 2026 an article titled "How UK Aid Cuts Help China Win the Battle for Hearts and Minds in Africa" by Dani Madrid-Morales, University of Sheffield.

The British and American retreat from Africa is being cleverly exploited by China to win the hearts and minds of Africans.  Much of China's success is due to its all-out effort to dominate the media domain in Africa as Western outlets pull back.

Taiwan Exercises Soft Power in Somaliland

 Saxafi Media published on 28 January 2026 an article titled "Soft Power with Somaliland: How Taiwan Is Shaping Influence Through Partnership, Not Pressure."

The article reprints an editorial from the Taipei Times, which underscores the soft power diplomacy that Taiwan is pursuing in Somaliland, where Taipei has established a liaison office.  

China Counters Western Alliances in Global South

 Modern Diplomacy published on 31 January 2026 a commentary titled "How China Courts the Global South to Counter U.S. Alliances" by Nadia Helmy, Beni Suef University in Egypt. 

China is countering Western alliances by drawing on its soft power and economic engagement through the Belt and Road Initiative, rapid military modernization, the formation of counter alliances such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, and "gray zone" tactics.  China's goal is to shape a multipolar world order.  

American Live Streamer IShowSpeed Takes Ethiopia by Storm

 Capital Market Ethiopia posted on 14 January 2026 an article titled "IShowSpeed Touches Down in Ethiopia: Addis Ababa Braces for 'Speed Does Africa' Chaos."

American Darren Jason Watkins Jr., global streaming titan "IShowSpeed," arrived in Ethiopia after a historic visit to Kenya bringing his "Speed Does Africa" to the Horn of Africa.  He was immediately engulfed by a sea of Ethiopians.

Ethiopia Insight published on 21 January 2026 a commentary titled "Ethiopia Goes Viral with IShowSpeed, Moment for Reflection" by Fenet Bedaso, Africa Development and Research Center.

The author explains that his visit placed Ethiopia, briefly but unmistakably, at the center of global online conversation.

Comment:  While official US influence in Africa continues to slip, unofficial American soft power remains very much alive and well.  

China Steps Up Soft Power in Africa

 The South China Morning Post published on 18 January 2026 an article titled "How China Is Stepping Up Africa China Offensive to Boost Cultural Ties, Deepen Influence" by Jevans Nyabiage.  

China began 2026 by emphasizing its people-to-people and soft power interaction in Africa.  This was one of the features of Foreign Minister Wang Yi's visit to Ethiopia, Tanzania, and Lesotho.

Iran's Influence in Africa

 The American Foreign Policy Council published in November 2025 an in-depth study titled "Charting Iran's Influence in Africa" by Alexander Brown, Charlotte Krausz, and Rob Gioia.  

Africa is a testing ground for Iran's influence operations, a pathway for sanctions evasion, and strategic depth for its foreign policy initiatives.  After mostly ignoring Africa during Hassan Rouhani's rule (2013-2021), Ibrahim Raisi (2021-2024) reestablished engagement with the continent as a strategic priority.  Iran has sought to leverage latent anti-Western sentiment and exploit the political opening created by the departure of longtime regional players such as France.  

China Courts African Media and Think Tanks at Forum in South Africa

 Kenya's The Star published on 17 November 2025 an article titled "China-Africa Partnership Conference Highlights Cooperation toward Shared Global Governance."

South Africa hosted on 13-14 November the Global South Media and Think Tank Forum China-Africa Partnership Conference.  China's Xinhua News Agency, the African Union, and South Africa's Independent Media organized the event attended by more than 200 representatives from 160 media outlets, think tanks, and government organizations.  The primary theme was shaping global governance.  

Comment:  The Forum is another example of China's focus on soft power in Africa and especially support for African media and think tanks.  The Forum provides China an opportunity to promote its governance model in Africa and build a "China-Africa community with a shared future for the new era."  

China also promoted its four global initiatives dealing with development, security, civilization, and governance.  China International Television Corporation and the state policy bank China Africa Development Fund have a 20 percent stake in South Africa's Independent Media, one of the sponsors of the Forum.  

China Promotes Its Language and Culture in Africa

 Deutsche Welle published on 28 September 2025 an article titled "How China Promotes Its Language and Culture in Africa" by Martina Schwikowski.  

China's Confucius Institutes offer courses on Chinese culture and Mandarin language in 49 African countries.  There is some concern, however, that this instruction comes with an effort to propagate Chinese political values.  

Ranking of China's Global Influence

 Uganda's The Independent published on 24 September 2025 an article titled "How China Controls the World" by Ronald Musoke.

The article draws on China's growing influence in Uganda and the results of the China Index 2024, published by China in the World network with the Taiwan-based non-profit Doublethink Lab.  The index measures China's influence in 101 countries.  

Comment:  It is difficult to determine if the title of the article is tongue in cheek or a misreading of the China Index 2024.  In any event, the index suggests that China is generally increasing its global influence.  

Turkiye as a Strategic Partner in Africa

 United World International posted on 21 September 2025 a commentary titled "Turkiye as a Strategic Partner in Africa" by Halim Gencoglu.

The author argues that as Turkiye expands its influence in Africa it could play a more important role in promoting political stability.  It offers an alternative to growing Chinese and Russian influence and could partner with Western countries.  

China's Economic Influence in Africa

 The IE China Observatory and Cheung Kong Graduate School of Business in collaboration with Afrobarometer and the IE Africa Program published in September 2025 a report titled "China's Economic Influence in Africa: A Data Driven Analysis."

The report is based on large-scale survey data from 27 African countries and looks at how ordinary citizens across Africa perceive Chinese economic influence. The report concludes that China's impact is neither uniform nor static.  The findings vary by country, region, demographic, and socioeconomic status.  

China-India Competition in the Western Indian Ocean

 Stimson published on 20 August 2025 a commentary titled "India Must Level Up to Compete with China in the Western Indian Ocean" by Radhey Tambi.

The author argues that India is falling behind China's influence in the Western Indian Ocean and needs to step up its diplomatic, political, institutional, military, economic, and soft power engagement with the island countries if it intends to compete with Beijing.  

China's Think Tank Diplomacy in Africa

 India's Observer Research Foundation published on 9 July 2025 an analysis titled "China's Think Tank Diplomacy in Africa" by Samir Bhattacharya.

China launched the China-Africa Think Tanks Forum (CATTF) in 2011, convening delegates from 27 African countries.  CATTF serves as a permanent platform for dialogue and exchange between Chinese and African think tanks.  

Xi Jinping has significantly expanded this initiative.  Most of its activities are carefully orchestrated by China's state apparatus.  Beijing's goal is to project China's world view, governance model, and developmental practices.