Interview on the Horn of Africa

 Saxafi Media posted on 23 August 2026 an interview with me titled "Inside Washington's Somaliland Dilemma: David Shinn Reveals What U.S. Policy Really Means."

Although much of the interview deals with Somaliland, it covers issues throughout the Horn of Africa and beyond, including US support for Somalia sovereignty, Israel's recognition of Somaliland, importance of Ethiopia, the conflict in Sudan. Egypt's role in the region, security in the Red Sea, competition with China, the role of African diasporas, and the contribution of UN agencies and IGAD.

Saving USAID's Information After Musk Feeds It into Woodchipper

 The Political Librarian published in its July 2026 issue a study titled "Where Is 60 Years of Data, Information and Knowledge One Year After USAID Was Fed "Into the Wood Chipper?" by Tanya Torres and Zachary Baquet.

When Elon Musk and the Trump administration fed the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) into the woodchipper in early 2025, groups and individuals mobilized to rescue information resources created by staff and partners.  

The USAID Knowledge Rescue effort, along with partner organizations and other volunteers, formed a decentralized network to preserve and provide public access to over sixty years' worth of the agency's data, information, and knowledge.  This study provides a snapshot of the progress and challenges faced by those involved in rescuing USAID's information.  

The shuttering of USAID, the Corporation for Public Broadcasting, and others by the Trump administration makes it clear that organizations are not permanent, and the knowledge they generate is fragile.  When an organization ends, time moves quickly.  The careful, delicate work of identifying and preserving decades-old institutional knowledge can get crowded out by the immediate pressures of winding down in weeks or months.

China Increases HIV/AIDS Funding in Africa, But Still Well Behind US

 The South China Morning Post published on 7 August 2026 an article titled "What China's Expanded Funding for HIV/Aids in Africa Means as US Cuts Health Aid" by Jevans Nyabiage.  

As the United States reduces its funding in Africa for HIV/AIDS treatment and prevention, China is modestly increasing assistance.  US funding remains, however, much higher than that coming from China.  

How Many Deaths Is Demise of USAID Causing?

 The Economist published on 30 July 2026 an article titled "How Many People Are Dying as a Result of USAID's Demise?"

Elon Musk, who is responsible for dismantling the US Agency for International Development (USAID), insists it has not cost any human lives.  The influential publication, Lancet, estimates that by 2030, 14 million people will die as a result of USAID's demise.

The Economist explains that the drop in US health funding has been less cataclysmic than originally predicted and that early estimates of deaths drew on trends that may no longer be valid.  While the early estimates of deaths are too high, Musk's notion of zero deaths is plainly wrong. Lives have been lost.

Africa Youth Survey: Perceptions of China and US

 The Ichikowitz Family Foundation just published its massive African Youth Survey 2026.  It held face-to-face interviews with about 5,000 Africans aged 18-24 from 16 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa.  

It covers many issues, but the focus here is perceptions of China and the United States.  African youth see China (79 percent) and the United States (81 percent) as the most influential foreign actors, although China's influence is seen as somewhat more positive.

The survey looked at the influence of the US, China, Brazil, EU, UK, Germany, France, India, and Russia.  The only country whose influence was seen as less positive than the United States (85 percent) was Russia (83 percent).  

About 3 in 5 youth are optimistic about Africa's future during the Trump administration, especially on military support and security.  Just under half believe the closure of USAID will negatively impact their country, with healthcare and disease prevention seen as the areas most affected.  

China and India are increasingly viewed as more favorable partners than the United States, a sentiment shaped in part by the return of the Trump administration.  

The Horn of Africa Faces a Looming Polycrisis

 The Conversation published on 16 July 2026 a discussion summary titled "Africa's Greater Horn Region Is Facing a Looming Polycrisis Fueled by Conflict, Prices, Climate and Disease" by Daniel Maxwell, Alex de Waal, Luka Kuol, Merry Fitzpatrick, and Peter Hailey.

The impacts of a strengthening El Nino and effects of the war in Iran combined with existing prolonged crisis and conflict in the Horn of Africa are leading potentially to a major, multicountry polycrisis.

The State Department and the Trump Administration

 The American Conservative published on 22 July 2026 a commentary titled "The Fight Inside Trump's State Department Is About Power--Not Expertise" by Phillip Linderman.

The author argues that the Trump administration is trying to salvage the US Foreign Service from the "globalist and woke values" that dominate professional diplomatic services.  But the "old guard" in the State Department is stymieing this effort in the belief that the situation in the Department will return to normal after Trump leaves office.

For decades, the State Department's machinery has reflexively favored the globalist or internationalist Foreign Service officer over the American First officer.  Now an administration is trying to rebalance the institution.   

The old guard understands that accepting Trump's approach would mean surrendering much of its power to shape foreign policy.  That is why its members defended "the corrupt and dysfunctional USAID."  He concludes: "This is a fight about Washington power, not diplomatic expertise."

Comment:  There is a grain of truth to the author's core argument.  Foreign Service officers tend to be globalist and internationalist in their approach to foreign affairs.  That has also been the approach of all post-World War II administrations with the exception of the first Trump administration.  Foreign Service officers, especially at the senior level, also want to have an impact on the foreign policy decision making process and not meekly parrot every decision that comes from on high.  

This is where his analysis falls apart.  There is a role for offering a slightly different approach or even a contrary point of view backed up by sound knowledge and analysis.  If it is not accepted, then obviously the decision from "on high" must be accepted.  In the vast majority of cases in my experience, this has been the response from the Foreign Service.  If significant differences remained, the Foreign Service officer was moved to a different position or resigned.  

A Foreign Service officer has every right to disagree, for example, with the author's definition of USAID as "corrupt and dysfunctional" because he is flat-out wrong and the administration erred in dismantling the organization.  But the Trump administration made the decision to shut USAID down, and it is up to the Foreign Service to implement the new policy on foreign assistance.  I suspect the overwhelming majority of Foreign Service officers today are doing just that.

The author argues that the "public record" suggests senior Foreign Service officers' reluctance to implement the president's decisions fully and faithfully is widespread.  The "public record" he cites is a flawed analysis titled "Why Does Trump Hate the State Department" published by The American Conservative on July 20 and reposted below on July 21.  

Status of Fired USAID Staff

 The Hill published on 22 July 2026 a commentary titled "The Dismantling of USAID and the Firing of Its Staff Was Illegal" by J. Brian Atwood and Kevin E. Burns.

The Trump administration has violated the Civil Service Reform Act of 1883, updated in 1978, by firing most USAID personnel without offering an opportunity for due process.

The Merit Systems Protection Board ruled that the president can remove career officials without due process.  Fired USAID employees are appealing this decision through the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit.

The Decline of Diplomacy in the United States

 USA Today published on 19 July 2026 an opinion piece titled "Reduction in US State Department Staff Was Purge in Diplomacy" by Elizabeth "Liz" Colton.

The Trump administration's dismissal of diplomacy and purge of the State Department have resulted in the predictable negative impact on US foreign policy.  

Picking Up the Pieces at the US State Department

 The Federal News Network published on 16 July 2026 an article titled "Laid-off Federal Employees Spotlight Impacts of State Dept. RIF" by Drew Friedman.

The State Department laid off nearly 1,350, mostly civil service, staff and DOGE fired almost all USAID personnel and abolished the organization, moving a small number of USAID employees to the State Department.  The State Department is now scrambling to figure out how to cope with issues such as Ebola in Africa.  

Marco Rubio Dismantles Human Rights at State Department

 Foreign Policy published on 8 July 2026 an article titled "Marco Rubio Burned Down the House to Fix a Sink" by Amanda Klasing, Amnesty International.  

Secretary of State Rubio has led an assault on human rights in American statecraft by slashing humanitarian aid, decimating human rights programs, gutting human rights offices and bureaus, disengaging from global human rights systems at the United Nations and elsewhere, and threatening international justice mechanisms.  

He has also changed the guidelines for the State Department's annual, global human rights reports by prioritizing political agendas over consistent accounting of human rights violations around the world.

USAID Dismantlement Has Resulted in Deaths

 The New York Times published on 1 July 2026 a commentary titled "U.S.A.I.D. Cuts Killed People.  That's the Truth" by Nicholas Kristof.  

Elon Musk, who at the beginning of the Trump administration ran DOGE, the organization that dismantled the US Agency for International Development, insists "there is not even a single dead child" as a result of the actions by DOGE.  

Nicholas Kristof, who has met with family members in Africa of dead children, begs to differ.  In addition, studies by university researchers and by Lancet, a British medical journal, estimate that deaths due to USAID financial cuts are in the hundreds of thousands.   

Ebola and the Dismantlement of USAID

 The American Security Project published on 24 June 2026 a commentary titled "From Aid Cuts to Ebola: A Predictable Crisis Unfolds" by Mohamed Siddiqui.  

The dismantlement of USAID, removal of its on the ground personnel in the DRC and Uganda, and cutting of foreign aid funding for health programs has left international humanitarian groups to provide the bulk of the support for affected communities.  The result has been predictable: a faster spread of Ebola and greater cost to bring it under control.  

Foreign Aid: US Congress vs the Trump Administration

 Propublica published on 22 June 2026 an article titled "'A Huge Grab of Power': Trump Is Defying Congress on Foreign Aid" by Anna Maria Barry-Jester.  

Bipartisan support for foreign aid remains in the US Congress despite the Trump administration's dismantlement of the US Agency for International Development and its effort to minimize US foreign assistance now administered by the State Department, which does not have the capacity to manage it in any event.  

Dismantling of Professional American Diplomacy

 The Daily Beast published on 1 June 2026 an article titled "Jaw-Dropping Brain Drain Under Trump Revealed" by Will Neal.

The Trump administration has either laid off or forced into retirement about 2,000 career diplomats since the beginning of 2025.  This figure does not include foreign service personnel who were fired when the administration dismantled the US Agency for International Development.  

More than half of US embassies do not have a Senate-confirmed ambassador and those that are staffed at the ambassadorial level include only 8 percent career ambassadors.  The vast majority of American ambassadors today are financial contributors to the Trump campaign, close friends of the administration, or family members. 

Dismantlement of USAID Prevents US from Responding to Africa's Ebola Outbreak

 The Guardian published on 21 May 2026 an article titled "US Is 'Simply Choosing Not to Stop' Ebola Outbreak after Massive Public Health Cuts, Experts Say" by Melody Schreiber.  

Following the dismantlement of the US Agency for International Development and massive cuts in global and domestic public health efforts, the United States appears to be doing little to stem the outbreak of Ebola in central Africa.  

US Africa Command Competes with Russia, China, and Terrorist Groups for Influence

 The Washington Examiner published on 20 May 2026 an article titled "US Competing with Russia, China, and Terror Groups for Influence across Africa" by Mike Brest.

Commander of US Africa Command General Dagvin Anderson told the House Armed Services Committee on 19 May that the United States is competing with Russia, China, and terror groups across Africa.  This is being done with a 75 percent reduction in the US regional posture over the past decade, a situation which is compounded by additional drawdowns by our allies.

Looking Back and Forward at Sudan over the Long Term

 The International Crisis Group posted on 15 May 2026 a 35-minute podcast titled "Sudan, and a Region and World in Upheaval" with Alan Boswell and Nasrine Malik, journalist and author.

The long-standing problem in Sudan is the control over resources by a certain group and the marginalization of the rest.  The old Sudan is gone and cannot be reconstructed.  The country requires a whole new approach, which may take years or more to achieve.

The United States and United Kingdom lack either the interest or ability to bring the civil war to an end.  As the United States withdraws from Africa, the European Union is drifting and not ready to replace the void being left by the United States.

Nasrine Malik discussed the impact of the war in Iran on Africa generally.  It has the potential to destabilize African economies.  The Western conception of human rights is on the wane and being replaced by an individualistic approach to certain human rights challenges. 

US Aid Cuts Undermine South Africa's Response to HIV/AIDS

 Devex Newswire posted on 4 March 2026 an article titled "US Aid Cuts Gut South Africa's HIV Fight" by Helen Murphy.

South Africa bears the world's largest HIV/AIDS burden.  US foreign aid cuts and the dismantlement of USAID have ripped through its response to the disease, forcing clinics to close and leaving thousands of vulnerable patients scrambling for care.  A State Department spokesperson responded that it is time for governments to take responsibility for the lives of people in their countries.  

Trump Administration Ends Humanitarian Aid to Seven African Nations

 Press TV posted on 23 February 2026 an article titled "Trump Admin Terminates 'Lifesaving' Aid Programs to Seven African Countries: Report."

The Atlantic magazine reported that the Trump administration has decided to end humanitarian aid programs in seven African countries because there is no strong connection between the humanitarian response and US national interests.  The seven countries are Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Malawi, Mali, Niger, Somalia, and Zimbabwe.