Africa Youth Survey: Perceptions of China and US

 The Ichikowitz Family Foundation just published its massive African Youth Survey 2026.  It held face-to-face interviews with about 5,000 Africans aged 18-24 from 16 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa.  

It covers many issues, but the focus here is perceptions of China and the United States.  African youth see China (79 percent) and the United States (81 percent) as the most influential foreign actors, although China's influence is seen as somewhat more positive.

The survey looked at the influence of the US, China, Brazil, EU, UK, Germany, France, India, and Russia.  The only country whose influence was seen as less positive than the United States (85 percent) was Russia (83 percent).  

About 3 in 5 youth are optimistic about Africa's future during the Trump administration, especially on military support and security.  Just under half believe the closure of USAID will negatively impact their country, with healthcare and disease prevention seen as the areas most affected.  

China and India are increasingly viewed as more favorable partners than the United States, a sentiment shaped in part by the return of the Trump administration.  

China's Influence Over African Ports

 The South China Morning Post published on 4 July 2026 an article titled "China's Influence on African Ports Extends to Software, Automation and AI: Study" by Jevans Nyabiage.  

The article discusses those aspects of African port construction and operations where China has gained influence in the past twenty years or more.  They include related infrastructure projects and all kinds of software and information technology.  

Seychelles More Positive on India and China than US

 Afrobarometer posted on 1 June 2026 a news release titled "Majority of Seychellois Welcome the Influence of India and China, Favour Neutrality in the Russia-Ukraine War."

Favorable perceptions of China's influence on Seychelles have increased significantly in recent years while those of the United States have fallen.  An overwhelming majority of Seychellois favor neutrality on Russia's war against Ukraine but more have a negative than positive perception of Russia's influence on Seychelles.  

China's Influence in Africa Increases on Political Issues

 The Interpreter, produced by Australia's Lowy Institute, published on 22 May 2026 a commentary titled "China's Influence in Africa Is No Longer Just Economic" by Isel Van Zyl. 

The author argues that the cancellation of overflight permission by Seychelles, Mauritius, and Madagascar for Taiwan's president to visit Eswatini, the only country in Africa that recognizes Taiwan, highlights that China's influence in Africa is no longer confined to the economic sector.

China's growing leverage in Africa is now expressed through diplomatic pressure, political signaling, and the ability to shape what governments, organizations, and even international conferences can and cannot do. 

Comment:  Beijing has exercised political influence in Africa for decades.  One only need compare African country voting patterns in the UN General Assembly or consider the publicly stated policy of most countries on China's core domestic issues such as Taiwan, Hong Kong, Tibet, Xinjiang, human rights, and island building in the South China Sea.  

US Africa Command Competes with Russia, China, and Terrorist Groups for Influence

 The Washington Examiner published on 20 May 2026 an article titled "US Competing with Russia, China, and Terror Groups for Influence across Africa" by Mike Brest.

Commander of US Africa Command General Dagvin Anderson told the House Armed Services Committee on 19 May that the United States is competing with Russia, China, and terror groups across Africa.  This is being done with a 75 percent reduction in the US regional posture over the past decade, a situation which is compounded by additional drawdowns by our allies.

Is Foreign Investment the Answer for American and Chinese Soft Power Influence in Africa?

Brookings published on 6 May 2026 a study titled "Foreign Investment Is Not Making Friends for China--or the US" by John F. McCauley, University of Maryland, Margaret M. Pearson, John L. Thornton China Center, and Xiaonan Wang, City University of New York - Baruch College. 

Drawing on over 750 Chinese and American foreign direct investment (FDI) projects in 23 African countries, the research challenges the assumption that it generates not only economic returns but also goodwill in the local community.  While proximity to a major power's investment increases its perceived influence in local communities and undermines that of its adversary, it also decreases affinity for the investing power.  

This reputational cost is not unique to China; U.S. investment triggers a strikingly similar backlash.  Unmet expectations around jobs and local economic benefits, heightened perceptions of corruption among local officials, and concerns about external influence erode the soft power dividends that both powers anticipate.  China and the United States must recognize that investing abroad can sabotage goodwill if projects are not constructed with local economic development in mind.   

 Comment: While the study offers a useful cautionary note about the impact of FDI, it is based on a narrow definition of the value of investment.  FDI can have positive effects on the economy that go well beyond the impact on the community in close proximity to the investment project.  FDI can add to a country's GDP, increase tax revenue, and have downstream economic benefits not captured in the nearby community.  While the negative results on reverse model preference identified in the study are revelatory, they are modest and probably skewed by a small number of egregiously flawed investment projects.   

China Hands Over Gifted ECOWAS Headquarters in Nigeria

 Business Insider Africa published on 29 April 2026 an article titled "China Hands Over $56.5 Million ECOWAS HQ in Nigeria, Expanding Influence in West Africa" by Segun Adeyemi.

China gifted and built the new $56.5 million ECOWAS headquarters in Abuja, Nigeria in a ceremony held this week.  

Vanguard published on 28 April 2026 an article titled "ECOWAS President Declared China W/Africa's Most Strategic Partner."

The president of the ECOWAS Commission described China at the ceremony "as West Africa's most strategic partner."  Nigeria's minister of state for foreign affairs said the headquarters is "a powerful symbol of the deepening ties between Africa and China."

Comment:  China buys a great deal of good will and influence in Africa by gifting and constructing key structures such as national parliaments, political party headquarters, presidential palaces, military barracks, and the headquarters for the African Union and ECOWAS.  

Examining Russia's Influence in Africa

 The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace published in April 2026 a study titled "Russia in Africa: Examining Moscow's Influence and Its Limits" edited by Nate Reynolds, Frances Z. Brown, Frederic Wehrey, and Andres S. Weiss.  

The collection of essays explores Russia's role, its appeal, and its limitations across very different parts of the continent--from West Africa and the Sahel to Southern Africa.  It dives into Russia's interests and tools and explains how they vary over time and between places.  It explores the agency and interests of African governments and citizens.

The collection contains the following essays:

--Introduction by Frances Z. Brown and Nate Reynolds

--Moscow's Dual-Track Africa Playbook: Transactional Security Deals in the Sahel, Enduring Political Capital in Southern Africa by Priyal Singh

--The Drivers and Limits of Russia's Appeal in West Africa and the Sahel by Jean-Herve Jezequel

--Russia's Geopolitical Hedging in the Sahel and West Africa by Anouar Boukhars

--Russia Risks Falling into the Sahel Security Trap by Hanna Rae Armstrong

--Battle for the Narrative: Africa in the Crosshairs of Russian Influence by Bah Traore

--Russia Eyes Expanded Role in Coastal West African States by Beverly Ochieng

--The Bear Down South: Russia's Relations with Southern Africa by Steven Gruzd and Friedrich von Treskow

--South Africa's Relationship with Russia: Navigating Historical Legacies, Domestic Change, and Geopolitical Complexities by Ray Hartley

--Beyond Material: Russia's Appeal to Southern African States by Philani Mthembu

Ranking of China's Global Influence

 Uganda's The Independent published on 24 September 2025 an article titled "How China Controls the World" by Ronald Musoke.

The article draws on China's growing influence in Uganda and the results of the China Index 2024, published by China in the World network with the Taiwan-based non-profit Doublethink Lab.  The index measures China's influence in 101 countries.  

Comment:  It is difficult to determine if the title of the article is tongue in cheek or a misreading of the China Index 2024.  In any event, the index suggests that China is generally increasing its global influence.  

Measuring China's Influence in Africa

 Doublethink Lab and the China in the World network have published a cross-regional ranking to measure China's overseas influence through comparable data titled "China Index 2022: Measuring PRC Influence Around the Globe."  It looks at 82 countries, including 11 in Africa, evaluating the following 9 domains: academia, domestic politics, economy, foreign policy, law enforcement, media, military, society, and technology.

The African country ranked as having the highest amount of Chinese influence was South Africa, tied with Peru for position number 5.  Other African countries had the following rankings: Nigeria (14), Egypt (17), Tanzania (18), Ghana (20), Kenya (22), Zambia (46), Sierra Leone (47), Gambia (50), Ethiopia (56), and Senegal (74).  By comparison, the United States ranked number 21.  

Both US and China Lose Influence in Africa

 Afrobarometer has just published changes in perceived influence of the United States and China in 27 African countries from 2019 until 2022.  

The US experienced an average decline of 11 percent in the 27 countries while China had an average decline of 10 percent.  (Click charts to enlarge.)

The US posted a positive influence percentage only in Sierra Leone and Mauritius while China had positive numbers in Cameroon, Sierra Leone, Angola, Liberia, and Namibia.  Both the United States and China experienced the sharpest drop in Morocco and Botswana.  

Malians Seem to Prefer China over US and France (in French)

 Afrobarometer published on 28 June 2021 an analysis titled "Les Maliens, favorable a l'integration regionale et aux investissements etrangers, soutiennent l'influence positive de la Chine."

An Afrobarometer survey of 1,200 adult Malians during March and April 2020 found that 80 percent had a positive response to China's economic and political influence in the country compared to 60 percent for the United States, 56 percent for Russia, and 34 percent for France.  In addition, 38 percent chose China as the best development model for Mali vs 16 percent for France and 15 percent for the United States.

On the other hand, 44 percent of the sample said Mali is too much in debt to China while only 30 percent said it is not too indebted and only 2 percent selected Chinese as the future international language vs 37 percent for French and 35 percent for English.  

African Perceptions of China and the US

 AFRO Barometer published on 3 September 2020 a study titled "Africans' Perception about China: A Sneak Peek from 18 Countries" by Edem Selormey.

Drawing on public opinion polling in 18 African countries in 2019/2020, AFRO Barometer compared reactions to China and the United States.  When asked whether China or the United States was the best model for the future development of each country, 32 percent replied the United States and 23 percent replied China.  Other countries accounted for the remainder.  China's average percentage improved slightly from 22 percent in 2014/2015.

When asked if the economic and political influence of the United States and China in each country is mostly positive or mostly negative, 59 percent had a mostly positive view of China and 15 percent a mostly negative view.  In the case of the United States, 58 percent had a mostly positive view and 13 percent a mostly negative view. The remaining respondents were not sure.  

China and Tanzania

Afro Barometer published on 25 February 2015 a brief news release titled "China Influence Seen as Strong, Positive in Tanzania."  Based on surveys, it concludes that Tanzanians see China's economic and political influence on Tanzania as mostly positive.