Pressenza published on 13 September 2026 an article titled "Geopolitics: Africa Deserves Its Own Position on Russia's Policy Agenda" by Kester Kenn Klomegah.
Russia's policy towards Africa lacks coordination and adequate information. This makes it even more important that Africa avoid the mistakes of its interaction with the former colonial powers and ensures that Russia treats African natural resources in a way that contributes to local manufacturing and processing of raw materials.
Forbes published on 14 September 2026 a commentary titled "Why Egypt Has Taken an Eastward Turn" by Ilan Berman.
President Xi Jinping's recent state visit to Egypt signals the extent to which Egypt has drifted decisively into the Chinese orbit in recent years. Cairo's geopolitical orientation toward Washington is no longer a given.
Semafor recently published a chart titled "Chinese versus US Foreign Direct Investment Flows into Africa."
The chart covers eleven years from 2014 through 2024. China had larger investment flows to Africa every year except for 2022 and 2023. The US actually had negative investment flows for four of the eleven years.
Comment: This is one more indication that the Trump administration's "trade not aid" (and FDI) approach to Africa has severe limitations. Not only has US trade with Africa dropped sharply this century, but FDI flows have also been on a downward trend. Both are determined primarily by private sector engagement. It will take a herculean effort to increase significantly both US trade and FDI.
Beirut Wire, an independent news and media company in Beirut, posted on 7 September 2026 an article titled "Somaliland's President Visits Washington in a Historic Push for U.S. Recognition."
Somaliland President Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi Irro is visiting Washington with a high-level delegation to strengthen relations with the United States, expand security cooperation, attract American investment, and advance US recognition of Somaliland. Somalia has sent its own delegation to Washington to counter Somaliland's effort to obtain diplomatic recognition.
Elites Africa published on 2 September 2026 an article titled "Egypt and China Sign Strategic Digital Economy and Technology Deals" by Ikeh Ifeanyichukwu James.
During Xi Jinping's state visit to Egypt, the two countries signed agreements that accelerate the digital transformation in Egypt and expand technological exchanges. China will integrate its technology into the Suez Canal Economic Zone. Egypt will have to align some of its digital standards with Chinese frameworks, which may create a comparative advantage for Chinese companies.
Brookings published on 27 August 2026 a commentary titled "Don't Let the Iran War Distract the United States from Africa" by Landry Signe.
The Iran war risks distracting the United States from Africa when competition for critical minerals, trade, and alliances with African countries become more intense. China, France, Russia, UAE, and India are accelerating their engagement on the continent, meaning any American retreat will come at a high geopolitical opportunity cost.
The Associated Press published on 14 August 2026 an article titled "Zambia Awaits Presidential Election Results. Here's Why China and the US May Be Interested" by Jacob Zimba.
Zambia awaits the results of an election that will decide whether President Hakainde Hichilema wins a second five-year term. Both China and the US are interested in Zambian copper and cobalt and hence the outcome of the election and its impact on each country.
Global Views World published on 10 August 2026 a commentary titled "Africa's 2026 Geopolitics: China's $282B Pull" by Alonso Reyes.
The author argues Africa's geopolitical alignment is undergoing significant transformation by moving away from traditional Western allies and towards emerging powers such as China, India, Russia, and the Gulf States.
But this is not a zero-sum game. African leaders are not choosing sides. They are diversifying their partnerships to maximize their own national interests.
Space News published on 22 June 2026 a commentary titled "America Is About to Cede Africa's Space Industry to China, and Nobody's Talking About It" by Philip Dackiw.
As China advances its own space program, there is still an opportunity for US companies to forge space-based partnerships in Africa, which is looking at significant space-focused technological expansion. If the US does not seize this opportunity, China will.
The ChinaMed Project published on 12 June 2026 an analysis titled "China's Industrial Footprint in Morocco: The Case of Tanger Tech" by Imane Ezzehouany and Amanda Chen.
As Chinese manufacturers expand their presence in Morocco, concern is mounting in Europe and the United States that the Kingdom may become an "industrial platform" for China to circumvent US and EU trade restrictions.
Tanger Tech City is an emerging Chinese platform for green manufacturing driven by a convergence of interests between China and Morocco.
Modern Diplomacy published on 21 May 2026 an article titled "Geology Meets Geopolitics: The Global Race for Critical Minerals in the Climate Transition" by Marta Rehnman, Trinity College Dublin.
China dominates the processing of critical minerals in Africa and Latin America. Beijing has mining partnerships with 44 African countries. But the United States and European Union are stepping up competition for unexploited mineral reserves in both Africa and Latin America.
Rare Earth Exchanges published on 17 May 2026 an article titled "Africa Has Become the New Geopolitical Battleground for Critical Minerals."
The article summarizes a study that examines trade flows, foreign direct investment, military relationships, diplomatic agreements, mining policy, and strategic industrial initiatives shaping Africa's critical minerals economy. It evaluates how China, Russia, the United States, and Europe are accessing and responding to Africa's critical mineral wealth.
The entire study "In the Crosshairs: Twenty-first-century Rivalry for Africa's Critical Minerals" by Ron Matthews and Vlado Vivoda was published online on 11 May 2026 by the European Journal of International Security.
Brookings published on 6 May 2026 a study titled "Foreign Investment Is Not Making Friends for China--or the US" by John F. McCauley, University of Maryland, Margaret M. Pearson, John L. Thornton China Center, and Xiaonan Wang, City University of New York - Baruch College.
Drawing on over 750 Chinese and American foreign direct investment (FDI) projects in 23 African countries, the research challenges the assumption that it generates not only economic returns but also goodwill in the local community. While proximity to a major power's investment increases its perceived influence in local communities and undermines that of its adversary, it also decreases affinity for the investing power.
This reputational cost is not unique to China; U.S. investment triggers a strikingly similar backlash. Unmet expectations around jobs and local economic benefits, heightened perceptions of corruption among local officials, and concerns about external influence erode the soft power dividends that both powers anticipate. China and the United States must recognize that investing abroad can sabotage goodwill if projects are not constructed with local economic development in mind.
Comment: While the study offers a useful cautionary note about the impact of FDI, it is based on a narrow definition of the value of investment. FDI can have positive effects on the economy that go well beyond the impact on the community in close proximity to the investment project. FDI can add to a country's GDP, increase tax revenue, and have downstream economic benefits not captured in the nearby community. While the negative results on reverse model preference identified in the study are revelatory, they are modest and probably skewed by a small number of egregiously flawed investment projects.
The Conversation published on 10 March 2026 a commentary titled "China in Africa: Investment and Trade Work Well When There's Strong Oversight, and Badly When There Isn't" by Vincent Tawiah, Dublin City University.
The author concludes that Chinese investment, loans, and trade in Africa offer substantial economic opportunity, but they can also lead to the rapid depletion of vital energy and forestry resources, undermining long-term development goals if institutional guardrails are weak.
This is part 2 of the Tigray Press interview with me on 9 March 2026 hosted by Bisrat Kebede. Part 1 is posted below on 10 March.
This 44-minute segment focuses on the current situation in the Horn of Africa and the engagement in Africa of the United States, China, and Russia.
The National Interest published on 11 March 2026 a commentary titled "How Ethiopia's Involvement in the Sudanese Civil War Threatens US Interests" by Liam Karr.
Ethiopian support for the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in neighboring Sudan threatens US private and public investment in Ethiopia. Ethiopian Airlines support for the RSF could additionally cause reputational and legal liability for US interests.
US Africa Command's Africa Defense Forum magazine published on 10 February 2026 an article titled "Rebels Target Niger Junta's Oil Revenue."
The Patriotic Movement for Freedom and Justice is engaged in a campaign to topple the military junta in Niger and restore elected President Mohamed Bazoum. A significant part of the junta's revenue is generated by the oil pipeline from Niger to Benin. The China National Petroleum Corporation and its subsidiary West African Oil Pipeline Company constructed the pipeline and continue to be engaged in its operations. Most of the exported crude goes to China.
China's involvement in the project has put Chinese oil companies in harm's way. Beijing now seeks to find a way to protect both its investment and personnel still involved in the project from attacks by the Patriotic Movement for Freedom and Justice.
Foreign Policy published on 18 February 2026 an article titled "What's Behind Ethiopia's Double Digit Growth: And Can Addis Ababa's Boon Last?" by Nosmot Gdabamosi.
Ethiopia's impressive growth rate is being driven by floating the exchange rate for its currency, the birr, and strong exports of coffee and gold. But high debt and involvement in Sudan's civil war could reverse the current positive numbers.
The Ghana News Agency posted on 18 February 2026 an article titled "Africa-China Relations Need Critical Review--Prof. Amoah" by Edward Acquah.
Prominent associate professor of political science at the University of Ghana, Lloyd George Adu Amoah, recently gave a key public lecture on China-Africa relations. Amoah, who has a doctorate from Wuhan University in China, called for a critical reassessment of the relationship. He described current China-Africa relations as "heavy on form and very light on substance."
Amoah identified three phases of China-Africa relations with the last one beginning about 2011 when China became the world's second largest economy. This phase has been marked by China's "obsession with the maintenance of its new superpower status." He warned that trade with China may lock Africa into a source for commodities and result in diminished manufacturing opportunities.
Amoah added Chinese foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows constitute less than 5 percent of its global FDI stock and they are concentrated in resource rich countries and sectors such as mining and construction.
The ChinaMed Project published on 30 January 2026 an analysis titled "China and the Libyan Crisis: Maintaining a Foot in the Door in a Changing Region" by Bianca Pasquier and Leonardo Bruni.
This paper revisits the past decade of Chinese engagement in Libya, tracing Beijing's evolving relations with the country's factions and situating them within a regional context. It concludes that China is unlikely to engage deeply in Libya's power struggles. Beijing will likely keep its options open, be present but uncommitted.
