The Political Economy of Coffee in Ethiopia

 The Rift Valley Institute published in September 2026 a report titled "Beyond the Bean: The Political Economy of Coffee in Ethiopia" by Shiferaw Muleta Eyana.

This report covers three case studies conducted in three major coffee belts: Sidama-Gedeo-Guji, Kaffa-Bench-Sheko-Sheka, and Jimma-Buno-Bedele-Ilu Aba Bora.  It covers four Ethiopian regions: Sidama, South Ethiopia, Southwest, and Oromia.  

After 2018, a major change allowed coffee farmers with a hectare or more to obtain an export license.  In practice, however, many face challenges such as limited access to finance and markets.  Coffee supplier's role as intermediaries has shrunk since the 2017 reform, as exporters can now buy directly from farmers.

Coffee cooperatives and unions now face stiff competition from traders and exporters who offer farmers immediate cash payments.  Their role has declined since the 2027 reform. Patronage and clientelism heavily influence licensing, land grants, and coffee marketing.  Corruption is widespread in the coffee sector, involving cooperative leaders, local officials, and state institutions such as law enforcement and customs.

African Coffee Exports to China and Zero Tariffs

 Thierry Pairault posted on 11 July 2026 an analysis titled "The African Coffee Industry and the Chinese Tariff Exemption."

This working paper examines how China's coffee market has evolved and the role that Africa has played in it.  Africa is a modest source (7.4 percent in 2024) for Chinese coffee imports.  Five African countries export green coffee beans to China: Ethiopia (70 percent of the African total), Uganda (20 percent), Tanzania (5 percent), Kenya (3 percent), and Rwanda (2 percent).  

China is a minor customer for African coffee and all five countries except Kenya paid no tariffs prior to China's recent Africa-wide zero tariff policy.  The zero-tariff policy will benefit Kenya.  In addition, African producers are confronted with importer-processors who set the conditions of the market.  China's tariff exemption matters little in terms of shaping of their industrial and commercial strategies given that it affects only minimal quantities.  

Can Ethiopia's Strong Growth Rate Continue?

 Foreign Policy published on 18 February 2026 an article titled "What's Behind Ethiopia's Double Digit Growth: And Can Addis Ababa's Boon Last?" by Nosmot Gdabamosi. 

Ethiopia's impressive growth rate is being driven by floating the exchange rate for its currency, the birr, and strong exports of coffee and gold.  But high debt and involvement in Sudan's civil war could reverse the current positive numbers.   

US Removes Ethiopia, Mali, and Guinea from Africa Growth and Opportunity Act

Aljazeera published on 2 January 2022 an article titled "US Removes Ethiopia, Mali and Guinea from AGOA Trade Programme." 

The United States removed Ethiopia on 1 January 2022 from AGOA eligibility due to "gross violations of internationally recognized human rights being perpetrated by the government of Ethiopia and other parties amid the widening conflict in northern Ethiopia."  It removed Mali and Guinea because of coups d'etat in both countries.  Each country has benchmarks for reinstatement of AGOA eligibility.  

A factsheet on "AGOA and Ethiopia" explains that in 2020 Ethiopia exported to the United States $238 million of goods (mostly apparel and footwear) under the terms of the Africa Growth and Opportunity Act.  Coffee exports of $131 million did not fall under AGOA.  

Ethiopia Wants to Reduce Trade Deficit with China

 Development Reimagined posted on 26 March 2021 an interview with Teshome Toga Chanaka, Ethiopia's ambassador to China, titled "Adding Value to Agricultural Exports to China Will Be Key to Ethiopia's Post-COVID Recovery."

Ambassador Teshome discussed China-Ethiopia relations in the post-COVID-19 era.  He focused on Ethiopia's trade deficit with China--37 to 1 in favor of China--, suggesting Ethiopia needs to export more agricultural products, especially coffee, to China to narrow the trade deficit.