The Political Economy of Coffee in Ethiopia

 The Rift Valley Institute published in September 2026 a report titled "Beyond the Bean: The Political Economy of Coffee in Ethiopia" by Shiferaw Muleta Eyana.

This report covers three case studies conducted in three major coffee belts: Sidama-Gedeo-Guji, Kaffa-Bench-Sheko-Sheka, and Jimma-Buno-Bedele-Ilu Aba Bora.  It covers four Ethiopian regions: Sidama, South Ethiopia, Southwest, and Oromia.  

After 2018, a major change allowed coffee farmers with a hectare or more to obtain an export license.  In practice, however, many face challenges such as limited access to finance and markets.  Coffee supplier's role as intermediaries has shrunk since the 2017 reform, as exporters can now buy directly from farmers.

Coffee cooperatives and unions now face stiff competition from traders and exporters who offer farmers immediate cash payments.  Their role has declined since the 2027 reform. Patronage and clientelism heavily influence licensing, land grants, and coffee marketing.  Corruption is widespread in the coffee sector, involving cooperative leaders, local officials, and state institutions such as law enforcement and customs.

Ethiopia: Amhara Nationalists and National Dialogue

 Ethiopia Insight published on 27 July 2026 a commentary titled "Amhara Nationalism Faces Historic Choice in National Dialogue" by Henok Ambachew, a pseudonym for a former lecturer at Bahir Dar University.

Ethiopia's ruling Prosperity Party has replaced the EPRDF coalition model with a single national party, which the author says is based on a different organizing principle called "demographic majoritarianism."

The Prosperity Party increasingly reflects the numerical weight of Ethiopia's population.  The 45-member executive committee consists of 10 Oromo members, 8 Amharas, 4 Somalis with the remaining distributed among other regional constituencies.  This was not the outcome desired by many Amhara elites.

Somalis Concerned about Future of Federalism in Ethiopia

 Ethiopia Insight published on 18 July 2026 a commentary titled "Ethiopia's National Dialogue Could Unravel the Federal Bargain" by Muktar Ismail.  

On 15 July, Ethiopia's long awaited National Dialogue Conference opened in Addis Ababa with over 4,000 participants from around the nation.  

The author argues that many Somalis in Ethiopia view the Conference not as an attempt to achieve national reconciliation but an attempt to revise Ethiopia's federalist form of government, which remains central to Somali preferences.  

Ethiopia's Economy Moves from China Model to Africa's Free Agent

 Forbes published on 1 July 2026 an article titled "Ethiopia: From China's Star Pupil to Africa's Free Agent" by Wesley Alexander Hill.

For years, China found an eager partner in Meles Zenawi's Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front, which ruled Ethiopia and embraced elements of China's development model.  It delivered impressive economic growth for many years, but it also contained structural weaknesses that Beijing's own system largely avoided.  

The rise of Abiy Ahmed marked the end of this era.  Ethiopia's current economic strategy represents one of Africa's most consequential experiments in macroeconomic liberalization.

Myths and Modern Ethiopia

 Ethiopia Insight published on 15 December 2025 a commentary titled "Medieval Myths to Modern Ethiopia" by Muktar Ismail.

The author disputes the myth of the Solomonic dynasty.  He concludes that Ethiopia faces a critical challenge in creating a shared narrative that embraces its diverse population.  This requires moving away from its Solomonic mythology towards a more inclusive fact-based dialogue.  

A Critique of Ethiopia's Ethnic Federalism

 Ethiopia Insight published on 18 October 2025 a commentary titled "Only in Shards: Ethiopia's Three Decades of Ethnic Federalism" by Kinfu Adam.  

The author argues that Ethiopia's experiment in ethnic federalism has been a high-risk venture in state fragmentation.  It has fueled displacement, hardened divisions, and strained state capacity.  Ethnic federalism entrenches insecurity rather than alleviating it.  If there is a path forward, it lies in a courageous reimagining of the federal order. 

Ethiopian Sovereignty: How To Maintain It

 Ethiopia Insight published on 11 August 2025 a commentary titled "Ethiopia's Sovereignty Illusion: Who Really Pulls the Strings?" by Eyob Yohannes, data analyst in Ethiopia.

The author argues that true economic power in Ethiopia lies in institutions outside the country such as the International Monetary Fund.  He says the solution is reducing dependence on Western lenders and pivoting to alternative partners such as the BRICS, African regional banks, and South-South trade blocs.

Ethiopia's Economic Reform Program Faces Serious Challenges

 Foreign Policy posted n 19 December 2024 a commentary titled "Ethiopia's Precarious Economic Reforms" by Liam Taylor, freelance journalist based in Addis Ababa.  

The author argues that Ethiopia's economic reform package is "fraught with jeopardy."  Political instability and a history of foreign investors who have been burned in Ethiopia does not bode well for the program.  

Communist Party of China Relations with African Political Parties

 The South China Morning Post published on 19 November 2024 an article titled "Do the Communist Party's Ties in Africa Pay Economic Dividends for China?" by Jevans Nyabiage.  

The Communist Party of China has interacted for decades with political parties in Africa.  It is not clear, however, whether closer party-to-party relations are the primary driver for more Chinese investment and funding in an African country.  

Lessons from Ethiopia and Sudan on US Efforts to Support Democracy

 The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace published in October 2024 a paper titled "U.S. Support for Democratic Openings in Conflict-Affected Countries: Lessons from Ethiopia and Sudan" by Brittany Gleixner-Hayat.  

The author concluded that while there are limits to what the U.S. government could have reasonably done to increase the likelihood of democratization in Ethiopia and Sudan, Washington missed opportunities to support peaceful democratic change and did harm by exacerbating conflict drivers through exclusionary and short-sighted policies.

The United States does not bear the responsibility for the failure of Ethiopia and Sudan to transition from authoritarianism to democracy.  The likelihood of democratization in both cases was low and the contexts were conflict prone.  However, the United States was a prominent external actor in both situations with a stated policy of supporting the consolidation of the democratic openings, so examining lessons learned is critical for future opportunities.

Meles Would End Political Squabbling in Tigray Region

 Ethiopia Insight published on 16 September 2024 a commentary titled "Tigray's Squabbling Leaders Should Honor Meles' Legacy" by Mulugeta Gebregziabher, Medical University of South Carolina.  

While the author praises the legacy of Meles Zenawi, he also acknowledges some faults.  More importantly, he suggests Meles would end the squabbling over power and waste of time and resources demonstrated by the current leaders of Tigray Region.  

The Many Faces of Ethiopia's Abiy Ahmed

 Foreign Policy published on 6 September 2024 an essay titled "The Many Faces of Abiy Ahmed" by Tom Gardner, Africa correspondent for The Economist.

This essay is adapted from the book published in 2024 and titled The Abiy Project: God, Power and War in the New Ethiopia by Tom Gardner.  The author argues there are many Abiy Ahmeds: the aspiring emperor longing for a glorious past, a forward-looking modernizer, a Pentecostal Putin both pragmatic and Machiavellian, a Christian nationalist, and a corporate CEO.  Abiy is convinced he was sent by God to rule Ethiopia.  

Politics and Resource Extraction in Ethiopia

 The Rift Valley Institute published in 2024 a paper titled "Prosperity to the Periphery? The Politics of Resource Extraction in Ethiopia, Post-2018" by Jonah Wedekind.

The Abiy Ahmed government sought to reform the governance of resource extraction and revenue distribution by sharing them more fairly with politically marginalized regions.  The author concludes that despite the ruling Prosperity Party's pledge to redress Ethiopia's center-periphery model of politics, the balance of power vis-a-vis peripheral regions and the political center has not shifted fundamentally.  

Ethiopia Back on the Brink

 Foreign Affairs posted on 8 April 2024 a commentary titled "Ethiopia Back on the Brink" by Alex de Waal and Mulugeta Gebrehiwot Berhe, both with the World Peace Foundation at Tufts University.

The authors point out that the war in Tigray Region has been followed by rebellion in Amhara Region and continuing unrest in Oromia.  Famine threatens both Tigray and Amhara Regions.  The United Arab Emirates is keeping the Abiy Ahmed government afloat but is also encouraging reckless projects.  

Ethiopia: Tigrayan Official Calls for Internal Reforms

 Ethiopia Insight published on 18 March 2024 a commentary titled "TPLF Needs to Chart a New Path Ahead for Tigray" by Fiseha Haftetsion, coordinator of the Policy Studies and Research Center of the TPLF.

The author, head of the Justice Bureau of Tigray until April 2023, calls on the Tigray People's Liberation Front to undertake a number of changes and reforms.  Ethiopia's federal and regional constitutions contain democratic principles that must be accepted.  Tigray's development program must be based on liberalism.  Regional authorities need to make their positions known at the federal level.  Tigray should be based on meritocracy.  It needs to make better use of its natural resources.  It must allow free expression but prohibit crimes like hate speech and racism.  Tigrayans must be honest about the flaws within the TPLF.  

Is Ethiopia's Disintegration Inevitable?

 Ethiopia Insight published on 29 January 2024 a commentary titled "Is Ethiopia's Disintegration an Inevitable and Necessary Evil?" by Hambisa Belina, Morgan State University.

The author begins by stating that "the real question is not if Ethiopia will disintegrate, but when and how."  He argues that the international community should help organize "a smooth and orderly birthing of new democratic states."  He adds: "Although the immense obstacles to achieving a peaceful disintegration must be recognized, they are not insurmountable if external actors support such a process."

Comment:  It appears that the author bases his analysis largely on Ethiopia's post-World War II history and tends to ignore the previous 2,000 years.  While Ethiopia is a deeply troubled country today and possibly at a crossroads, there is no inevitability about its disintegration.  It has weathered equally difficult periods in the past, albeit not with the same international borders as today.  The idea that outside powers could help birth an undetermined number of independent, economically viable, democratic states strikes me as fantasy.  

Oil and Gas Development in Ethiopia's Somali Region

 The Rift Valley Institute and Peace Research Facility published in 2023 a study titled "Squeezing the Ogaden Basin: Power and Protracted Oil and Gas Exploration in the Somali Region" by Juweria Ali, University of Westminster.  

Ethiopia's Somali Region is rich in oil and gas reserves in the Ogaden Basin.  Attempts by the federal government in Addis Ababa to access these resources are bound up in long histories of violence and dispossession.  There is no federal government road map to resume oil and gas exploration and future extraction in the Ogaden Basin following the 2022 expulsion of China's Poly-GCL company.  

There is evidence that the federal government is pursuing a policy of co-opting community figures in order to gain greater legitimacy for its top-down decision-making on oil and gas management, at the expense of public participation.  

Religion in Ethiopia

 The Rift Valley Institute and the Peace Research Facility published in 2023 a study titled "Religion in Contemporary Ethiopia: History, Politics and Inter-Religious Relations" by Jorg Haustein, Abduletif Kedir Idris, and Diego Maria Malara.  

Religion has made a political comeback in Ethiopia under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and is once again part of the political discourse.  Religious affiliation in Ethiopia is part of a multi-layered nexus incorporating ethnicity and other, secondary, social characteristics, such as occupation or class.

The study provides an overview of the politics of religion since the making of the modern Ethiopian nation state in the nineteenth century.  It surveys the four most important faith groups in Ethiopia--Orthodox Christianity, Islam, Protestantism/Pentecostalism, and traditional religions.  Finally, it explores inter-religious relations. 

Ethiopia: Oromia and Ethnic Nationalism

 Ethiopia Insight published on 8 January 2024 a commentary titled "Peace in Ethiopia's Oromia Will Only Come Through Genuine Self-rule" by Ermias Tasfaye, an Ethiopia Insight reporter living in Burayu, Oromia.

This is a detailed, if complex, discussion of the politics of Oromia that offers suggestions for dealing with the current conflicts, which seem to be dominated by extreme ethnic nationalism among Ethiopia's major ethnic groups.  

The Argument for Ethiopian Federalism

 The Conversation published on 26 November 2023 a commentary titled "What Is Federalism? Why Ethiopia Uses This System of Government and Why Its Not Perfect" by Bizuneh Yimenu, University of Birmingham.

The primary aim of Ethiopian federalism is to accommodate the country's diverse ethnic groups.  The author argues that federalism, in spite of its imperfections, remains the best political system for Ethiopia.