Evolution of China's Policy on the Western Sahara

 The ChinaMed Project published on 7 May 2026 an analysis titled "From Neutrality to Strategic Ambiguity: China and the Western Sahara Conflict" by Imane Ezzehouany, Bianca Pasquier, and Amanda Chen.  

This analysis examines the evolution of China's position on the Western Sahara and the growing tension between diplomatic neutrality, geoeconomics, and geopolitical competition in the Maghreb.  The rapid expansion of Sino-Moroccan relations in recent years raise questions whether Beijing may be adopting a calibrated ambiguity compatible with Morocco's autonomy plan, allowing China to safeguard its strategic interests without incurring meaningful political costs.  

Israel's Recognition of Somaliland Creates Challenges in Horn of Africa (in Arabic)

 Egypt's Al Dostor published on 29 December 2025 an article titled "A Dangerous Gamble. Two International Experts: Israeli Recognition of 'Somaliland' Turns It into a Military Base."

The Arabic-language article draws on analysis by me and an analyst at the Atlantic Council in Washington on the implications of Israel's formal recognition of Somaliland, the first such recognition by another country.  It raises the question of possible recognition by other countries and identifies some of the challenges and new strategic considerations in the Horn of Africa and Red Sea region.

Israel's Recognition of Somaliland Changes Dynamic in Horn of Africa

 Abren, a group of Ethiopian Americans, posted on 27 December 2025 an analysis titled "Israel's Recognition of Somaliland: A Game-Changer in Horn of Africa Geopolitics."

Israel's diplomatic recognition of Somaliland is a monumental shift in the geopolitical landscape of the Horn of Africa.  The analysis looks at the positions of Turkey, Russia, China, US, and Ethiopia with the latter playing a pivotal role in this evolving situation.

Lessons from Ethiopia and Sudan on US Efforts to Support Democracy

 The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace published in October 2024 a paper titled "U.S. Support for Democratic Openings in Conflict-Affected Countries: Lessons from Ethiopia and Sudan" by Brittany Gleixner-Hayat.  

The author concluded that while there are limits to what the U.S. government could have reasonably done to increase the likelihood of democratization in Ethiopia and Sudan, Washington missed opportunities to support peaceful democratic change and did harm by exacerbating conflict drivers through exclusionary and short-sighted policies.

The United States does not bear the responsibility for the failure of Ethiopia and Sudan to transition from authoritarianism to democracy.  The likelihood of democratization in both cases was low and the contexts were conflict prone.  However, the United States was a prominent external actor in both situations with a stated policy of supporting the consolidation of the democratic openings, so examining lessons learned is critical for future opportunities.

Derailed Political Transition Responsible for War in Sudan

 Aljazeera published on 29 October 2023 a commentary titled "The War in Sudan Is a Consequence of a Derailed Transition" by Dirdeiry M. Ahmed, briefly a former foreign minister in Sudan and now at the University of Khartoum.  

The author lays most of the blame for the ongoing war in Sudan on the derailed political transition and actions of the international community following the toppling of the Omar al-Bashir government.  He argues that the top priority of the international community has been the sidelining of the Islamists while the focus should have been economic recovery and elections.  

Saudi-Emirati Competition in Sudan

 Foreign Policy published on 12 July 2023 a commentary titled "How Sudan Became a Saudi-UAE Proxy War" by Talal Mohammad, independent consultant.

The author argues that Saudi Arabia and the UAE view the war in Sudan as a chance "to cement their hegemonic status in the Middle East."  Saudi Arabia supports the Sudan Armed Forces while the UAE backs the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces.  Although both countries collaborated in the war against Houthi rebels in Yemen, their goals subsequently increasingly diverged.  The conflict in Sudan is an opportunity for both Saudi Arabia and the UAE to expand their regional influence.  

Israel's Engagement with Sudan's Military Jeopardizes Transition to Civilian Rule

 Haaretz published on 1 November 2021 an article titled "Israel Can Only Make Real Peace with a Democratic Sudan" by Mohy Omer.

Near the end of the Trump administration, Sudan agreed to begin the process of establishing relations with Israel.  Sudan's generals subsequently took control of the country, ousting the civilian-led government.  Israel's engagement with Sudan's military now legitimizes its quest to remain in power and weakens the civilian component of the government.  This action risks contributing to the reversal of a process intended to result in a democratic transition in Sudan.  

US Treasury Secretary Visits Sudan and Egypt

 The Associated Press posted on 6 January 2021 an article titled "Sudan Says It Signs Deal on Normalizing Ties with Israel" by Samy Magdy.  

US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin just completed a visit to Egypt and Sudan, where the government in Khartoum signed the "Abraham Accords" that pave the way for Sudan to normalize relations with Israel.  Mnuchin also discussed debt relief with the government of Sudan.