Gulf States Increase Engagement in Africa, Raising New Issues

 The Council on Foreign Relations posted on 8 August 2024 an analysis titled "Africa and the Gulf Are Becoming Closer.  Will It Increase Global Tensions?" by Alexandra Dent and Mariel Ferragamo.

Qatar, UAE, and Saudi Arabia have increased their political, military, and economic engagement in Africa.  They have found willing partners with African governments but also exported Gulf State tensions to the continent.

Saudi-Emirati Competition in Sudan

 Foreign Policy published on 12 July 2023 a commentary titled "How Sudan Became a Saudi-UAE Proxy War" by Talal Mohammad, independent consultant.

The author argues that Saudi Arabia and the UAE view the war in Sudan as a chance "to cement their hegemonic status in the Middle East."  Saudi Arabia supports the Sudan Armed Forces while the UAE backs the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces.  Although both countries collaborated in the war against Houthi rebels in Yemen, their goals subsequently increasingly diverged.  The conflict in Sudan is an opportunity for both Saudi Arabia and the UAE to expand their regional influence.  

An Iranian Exile Analyzes China's Belt and Road Initiative

 Iran International, a London-based channel with ties to Saudi Arabia's royal family, posted on 23 January 2022 a commentary titled "Belt and Road Initiative, China's Great Game" by Ghazal Vaisi.  

The author looks at China's Belt and Road Initiative from the perspective of a journalist born in Iran, living in London, and specializing in China.  

Gulf State Financial Flows to Northeast Africa

 The American Enterprise Institute published an updated version of its "Gulf Financial Aid and Direct Investment: Tracking the Implications of State Capitalism, Aid, and Investment Flows" by Karen E. Young.  

The study looks at capital investment and jobs created by the Gulf States from 2003 to 2020 in several states, including Egypt, Ethiopia, Djibouti, and Sudan.  The study compares Gulf State investment with that from China, EU, UK, and US.  It also includes an interactive data tracker.  

How Joe Biden Would Change Policy in North Africa

 The European Council on Foreign Relations published on 3 November 2020 a commentary titled "How a Biden Win Could Transform US Policy in the Middle East and North Africa."

Anthony Dworkin commented on possible policy changes by Joe Biden in North Africa. He suggested Biden will be less attracted to Egypt's heavy-handed approach, which encourages radicalization and has reduced Egypt's importance as a regional power.  Increased human rights violations in Egypt will raise a red flag and Biden will take a more balanced position on the Nile water dispute between Egypt and Ethiopia.  Biden is likely to adopt the same priorities towards Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia.

Tarek Megerisi, commenting on policy towards Libya, said there is little indication US inertia will be shifted by Biden.  On the other hand, Biden may be more critical of Egyptian, Turkish, and Emirati unilateralism, humanitarian violations, and general spoiling of UN and US positions in the region.    

Gulf State Financial Flows to Horn of Africa and Elsewhere

 The American Enterprise Institute published in August 2020 a study titled "Gulf Financial Aid and Direct Investment: Tracking the Implications of State Capitalism, Aid, and Investment Flows" by Karen E. Young.  

The report describes the breadth and scope of Gulf State aid and financial flows into Djibouti, Egypt, Ethiopia, Jordan, Oman, Pakistan, Sudan, and Yemen.  China is capturing most of the press attention; the Gulf States collectively are much bigger players in these countries.  

China's Policy in the Middle East and North Africa

The European Council on Foreign Relations published in October 2019 a paper titled "China's Great Game in the Middle East" by Camille Lons, International Institute for Strategic Studies in Bahrain, Jonathan Fulton, Zayed University in Abu Dhabi, Degang Sun, Fudan University, and Naser Al-Tamimi, UK-based political economist.

China's relationship with the Middle East and North Africa revolves around energy demand and the Belt and Road Initiative. While Beijing has become far more engaged in the economics of the region, it continues to believe that the United States can take responsibility for managing regional security.

Gulf State Competition Plays Out in Horn of Africa

The International Crisis Group published on 19 September 2019 a report titled "Intra-Gulf Competition in Africa's Horn: Lessening the Impact."

Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and Turkey are competing to set the rules for a Red Sea region long in turmoil. Two overlapping rivalries drive and define this engagement: a split withing the Gulf pitting Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Egypt against Qatar and Turkey and competition between Saudi Arabia and Iran. In both of these divisions, the main rivals see Africa as a new arena for competition and building alliances. They also see China as the emerging dominant force in the Horn, and hence one with which they will need to ally, as U.S. and European influence recedes.

Competition, Cooperation and Security in the Red Sea

The Institute for Security Studies published in August 2019 a study titled "Competition, Cooperation and Security in the Red Sea" by Omar S. Mahmood.

The report assesses current developments, covering ongoing rivalries in the Red Sea region and making recommendations for future collaboration.

Security Issues in the Horn of Africa

The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) published in April 2019 three major studies dealing with security issues in the Horn of Africa by Neil Melvin, senior researcher at SIPRI.

The first paper is titled "The Foreign Military Presence in the Horn of Africa Region." It maps the growth of foreign military forces in and around the Horn over the past two decades.

The second paper is titled "The New External Security Politics of the Horn of Africa Region." It highlights the increasing importance of geopolitical, commercial and military competition as the driver of foreign military deployments to the Horn region.

The third paper is titled "Managing the New External Security Politics of the Horn of Africa Region." It highlights how the growth of foreign military forces in the Horn is transforming the region as a security space, and identifies priorities to help the countries of the Horn manage the new external security dynamics.

Gulf States Change Financing Dynamic in Horn of Africa

The American Enterprise Institute published on 23 April 2019 an analysis titled "Sudan's Windfall from the Gulf and the Perils of New Development Finance" by Karen E. Young.

Saudi Arabia and the UAE announced in April a $3 billion support package for Sudan. This is one in a long list of financial transfers from the Gulf States to the Horn of Africa. It marks a step away from the traditional role of international financial institutions such as the IMF and World Bank and puts in doubt development aid financing that follows Bretton Woods principles.

Politics in the Horn of Africa: A Shuffled Deck

The Africa at LSE blog posted a commentary titled "Transformation Euphoria in the Horn of Africa" by Abukar Arman, a former Somali diplomat.

The author evaluates the new complexities of relationships in the Horn of Africa and the impact of Gulf State interests in the region. Increasingly, politics in the Horn of Africa is looking like a card game of 52 pick up.

Gulf States Destabilize Somalia

World Politics Review published on 29 June 2018 a commentary titled "Gulf Rivalries Extend into the Horn of Africa, Further Destabilizing Somalia" by Ilya Gridneff, a Somalia analyst based in Kenya.

As Western influence wanes in the Horn of Africa, clashing visions of how to engage with the region, from rival Gulf states to Turkey, will only intensify, threatening the unity of Somalia most of all.

Gulf States Increase Tension in Somalia

The Institute for Security Studies published on 20 June 2018 a commentary titled "Somalia Must Look Inward To Defuse Its Tensions" by Omar S. Mahmood.

Somalia's federal member states have been upset with Mogadishu's foreign policy direction since last year. Somalia's government has sided with Qatar in the Gulf State disputes in opposition to federal member states' interests. While other Horn of Africa countries have been pressured to choose sides in this dispute, Somalia has suffered the worst consequences.

Somalia and the Gulf Crisis

The International Crisis Group published on 5 June 2016 a report titled "Somalia and the Gulf Crisis."

It concludes that the bitter rivalries underlying the crisis among members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) are contributing to Somalia's instability. Al-Shabaab is likely to be the winner in this dispute.

Turkey Extends Influence in Red Sea

The Middle East Institute posted on 17 January 2018 an analysis titled "Turkey's Move into the Red Sea Unsettles Egypt" by Theodore Karasik and Giorgio Cafiero.

Turkey seems to have convinced Sudan to give it military access to Suakin Island, south of Port Sudan, in the Red Sea. Egypt fears that Sudan, with a Turkish military presence on Suakin Island, could feel emboldened to make an aggressive move against the disputed Halaib triangle along the Sudan-Egypt border. Turkey's entry into the Red Sea raises new questions for Arab states with high stakes in the region.

Saudi-Iranian Rivalry in Africa

The Middle East Institute in Washington published in September 2017 a policy paper titled "The Fight for Africa: The New Focus of the Saudi-Iranian Rivalry" by Gerald Feirstein, Middle East Institute, and Craig Greathead, University of St. Andrews.

The authors argue that Africa has become a competing arena between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Both states have turned their focus to the continent, developing ties with a number of African states in the economic and security arena.

Gulf Crisis May Reshape the Horn of Africa

World Politics Review published on 1 August 2017 an analysis titled "Old Game, New Stakes: How the Gulf Crisis Could Reshape the Horn of Africa" by Michael Woldemariam, Boston University.

The author concluded that while the Gulf crisis has the potential to usher in an entirely new dynamic in the Arab world's engagement with the Horn of Africa, much uncertainty remains about a core premise: that the Saudi-led camp will actually prevail over Qatar. The architects of the anti-Qatar alliance banked on firm support from Washington and Qatar's quick capitulation. Neither has materialized. All indications are that Doha is preparing for a long war of attrition, and that the Saudi-led power play may have incited a formidable new alliance that marries Qatari wealth to Turkish and Iranian military power. This would be a game changer. A long, extended stalemate in the Gulf would also have ramifications for the Horn of Africa.

China and the Eritrea-Djibouti Border Dispute

VenturesAfrica.com published on 24 July 2017 a piece titled "How the Eritrea-Djibouti Border Dispute Affects the International Community" by Jewel Ike-Obioha.

As Qatar pulls its troops out of the Djibouti/Eritrea disputed border region, China has offered to mediate the conflict and even consider sending replacement troops.

The US, Horn of Africa, and the Gulf States

The Washington-based Hollings Center for International Dialogue just published a summary of its March 2017 dialogue on "Middle East and U.S. Relations with the Greater Horn of Africa."

The summary notes the growing involvement in the Greater Horn of Africa of the Gulf States, Turkey and Iran. It suggests what the United States needs to understand as these actors impact the economic, security, and religious situation in this region.