Chatham House published on 13 February 2026 a commentary titled "The AU Summit Is an Opportunity for Decisive Action to End the War in Sudan" by Hubert Kinkoh.
The author argued that the 14-15 February African Union Summit was an opportunity for decisive leadership on Sudan. The AU has been increasingly peripheral to competing diplomatic tracks. The AU must assert its primacy and enforce diplomatic coherence.
Ethiopia Insight published on 12 January 2026 a commentary titled "The Geopolitical Ripple Effects of Somaliland's Recognition" by Muktar Ismail, regional analyst.
Israel's recognition of Somaliland sparked a largely negative international response, underscoring its isolation on the issue. Of the 15 member states of the UN Security Council, only the United States defended Israel's right to recognize Somaliland. The al-Shabaab terrorist organization, which controls parts of Somalia, cast the decision as a "Zionist crusader project."
The International Crisis Group posted on 25 April 2025 a 25-minute podcast titled "Any Hope Left for Diplomacy in Sudan?" with Alan Boswell and Abdul Mohammed, long time follower of Sudanese issues.
The war in Sudan is effectively eliminating the concept of a Sudanese state. Sudan has been at war with itself since independence. Western Sudan is becoming integrated into the Sahel region and eastern Sudan is part of the Horn of Africa. One cannot rule out partition of the country.
What is needed now is a full-time mediation effort led by the African Union with complete bilateral and multilateral support. Sudan can be pieced together again because most Sudanese people want unity.
The Maritime Executive published on 5 March 2025 an article titled "Risks of Houthi Attacks on Shipping Increase."
On January 19, the Houthi leadership in Yemen suspended attacks on international shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden so long as the ceasefire between Hamas and Israel held. A resumption of hostilities would likely result in new Houthi attacks on shipping.
The Palestine Chronicle posted on 8 March 2025 an article titled "Ansarallah Gives Israel 4 Days to Allow Gaza Aid or Face Red Sea Operations."
The Houthis announced on 7 March that they will resume attacks on "Israeli targets" within 4 days if Israel does not allow humanitarian aid into Gaza.
The International Crisis Group posted on 7 February 2024 a 36-minute podcast titled "Somalia, Somaliland and the Explosive Port Deal" with Alan Boswell and Omar Mahmood.
The discussion focused on the reaction of Somalia, the possibility that the deal may contribute to conflict in the region, and the position of Ethiopia and Somaliland going forward. From Somaliland's perspective the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) is straightforward acceptance of a 50-year lease for a naval base on its coast in exchange for Ethiopian recognition of Somaliland.
Details of the MOU have still not been made public. At this point, it seems to be more of a declaration of intent. For example, there is no agreement where Ethiopia's naval base will be located, although it apparently will not be at Somaliland's current port of Berbera.
Al-Monitor published on 23 January 2024 an article titled "Somali President Visits Qatar, Egypt Amid Row over Somaliland-Ethiopia Deal" by Beatrice Farhat.
Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has been visiting Eritrea, Egypt, and Qatar to build support for opposing the Memorandum of Understanding between Ethiopia and Somaliland. He appears to be making progress in achieving this goal.
The Soufan Center, an independent and non-profit research organization based in New York, published on 11 January 2024 an intel brief titled "Tensions Growing Between Ethiopia and Somalia over Somaliland Port Deal."
The analysis notes that the proposed deal is backed by the United Arab Emirates. On the other hand, the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, Arab League, Egypt, and Turkiye have sided with Somalia against the Ethiopia-Somaliland deal.
Dereje Tessema, author of Demystifying the Nile, organized on 29 April 2023 a conference at Georgetown University that focused on the Nile Basin and the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). It included a panel session lasting one hour and 15 minutes moderated by Won Kidane, Seattle University School of Law, and the following speakers: Seleshi Bekele, Ethiopian ambassador to the United States, Seifeselassie Lemma, Washington-based attorney, and me.
The panel session provided an update on the status of the GERD (now 90 percent complete), the regional and international geopolitics of the dam, and a discussion of international water law.
The Congressional Research Service published on 23 March 2023 an analysis titled "Middle East and North Africa-China Relations."
The study acknowledges the growing influence of China in the Middle East and North Africa and then looks at ways the United States can improve its standing in the region and counter Chinese influence.
Bloomberg published on 12 August 2022 an article titled "Why Ethiopia's $5 Billion Dam Has Riled Its Neighbors: Quick Take" by Samuel Gebre and Fasika Tadesse.
The article provides a short status report on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam now that the third annual filling of the reservoir behind the dam has been completed. The reservoir is now about one-third full. Once it is full, the Blue Nile will continue flowing normally again throughout the year, including during the rainy season when the filling takes place. Downstream Egypt continues to protest construction of the dam while Sudan's position seems to ebb and flow.
The Associated Press published on 24 July 2022 an article titled "Russia's FM Visits Egypt, Part of African Trip Amid Ukraine War" by Samy Magdy.
Russia's Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov is visiting Egypt, Ethiopia, Uganda, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo in an effort to justify Moscow's invasion of Ukraine.
Foreign Affairs published on 11 November 2021 an article titled "Countering Sudan's Coup: The United States Faces a Crucial Test in Khartoum" by Alex de Waal.
The Biden administration's willingness to take action aimed at restoring the democratic transition in Sudan will be crucial in shaping political outcomes throughout the Horn of Africa and Red Sea Region.
The International Crisis Group (ICG) posted on 5 November 2021 an analysis titled "After the Coup, Restoring Sudan's Transition" by Jonas Horner.
An ICG expert outlines de-escalatory steps that could reinstate the constitutional order and reset Sudan's transition.
US President Joe Biden released a statement on 28 October 2021 concerning the military coup d'etat in Sudan. He called for the release of all those detained by the military and the restoration of the transitional government that was in the process of establishing a civilian government. He condemned the military takeover and said the United States stands with the people of Sudan.
Reuters published on 15 June 2021 an article titled "Arab States Call on U.N. Security Council to Meet over Ethiopian Dam."
An Arab League meeting in Qatar on 15 June passed a resolution calling on Ethiopia to negotiate "in good faith" with Egypt and Sudan and asked the UN Security Council to take up the issue of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD).
Aljazeera published on 16 June 2021 an article titled "Ethiopia Rejects Arab League Resolution on Renaissance Dam."
Ethiopia responded that the GERD is an African issue that can only be resolved in the spirit of finding African solutions to African problems.
