African Arguments published on 29 September 2023 a commentary titled "Conditioned to Fail: Donor and Multilateral Engagement in Post-Revolution Sudan" by Muez Ali, Muzan Alneel, and Mayada Hassanain.
The authors put much of the blame for the military coup d'état in Sudan on the failure of the donor community and international financial institutions to respond appropriately to the growing crisis.
Aljazeera published on 29 September 2023 an article titled "Analysis: Can Sudan's Civilian Leaders Save Their Country from Collapse?" by Elfadil Ibrahim.
Following the outbreak of conflict between the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), civilian groups have taken sides. The Democratic Bloc, an offshoot of the Forces for Freedom and Change (FFC), has sided with the SAF. The FFC-Central Council appears to have aligned with the RSF, although its leaders insist it is neutral. These and other divisions among Sudanese civilian leaders raise questions about their ability to assume leadership positions should they be given the opportunity.
The Sudan Tribune published on 23 July 2023 an article titled "Sudanese General Accuses Kenyan President of Mercenarism, Rejects East African Force."
Sudan has rejected a proposal from Kenyan President William Ruto for the deployment of East African troops to Sudan to restore order. A Sudanese general accused Ruto of supporting the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces and serving as a mercenary for an unnamed country.
Democracy Now! posted a 20 minute video podcast on 12 July 2023 on You Tube titled "Sudan Fighting Escalates, Displacing 3 Million in 3 Months."
Sudan is on the brink of a full scale war. The Sudan Armed Forces have rejected the ideas of accepting international peacekeepers in the country. So far, all external mediation efforts have been ill-conceived and failed. The podcast highlights remarks by Khalid Mustafa Medani, McGill University, and Marine Alneel, Sudanese activist.
World Politics Review published on 22 June 2023 a commentary titled "Only a United Civilian Coalition Can Bring Peace to Sudan" by Yasir Zaidan, University of Washington.
The author argues that only a new, united civilian political alliance can bring a sustainable end to the conflict in Sudan.
Foreign Policy published on 24 April 2023 a commentary titled "Hemeti's Rise in Sudan Is a Threat to Regional Stability" by Yasir Zaidan, National University of Sudan.
The author argues that while Sudan has faced multiple civil wars before, this conflict is the most catastrophic because of its impact on civilians and state institutions. The author concludes this "is a fight between the remains of national state institutions against a tribal, corrupt militia."
Comment: This may become Sudan's most catastrophic conflict since independence, but one should not lose sight of the horrors of the long war against southern Sudan and the atrocities in Darfur.
The Arab Center Washington, D.C. posted on 23 January 2023 a commentary titled "Sudan's Political Process and Hopes for a Civilian Government" by Kholood Khair.
Sudan's Framework Agreement to relaunch a transition to civilian government is dependent on support from the international community. Sudan's military rulers made few concessions and civilians will likely acquire only bureaucratic and not political power. The author predicts the agreement "will likely lead to a weak and barely legitimate Potemkin village of a government that is unable to deliver real change."
The International Crisis Group (ICG) published on 23 January 2023 a statement titled "A Critical Window to Bolster Sudan's Next Government."
Sudan's military government has concluded a framework agreement with dozens of civilian leaders for a transitional government, but several important groups refused to take part in the process. The ICG argues that it is now essential to expand support for the agreement.
The Hill published on 9 December 2022 a commentary titled "It Is in America's Interest that Sudan's Transition Succeeds" by J. Peter Pham, Atlantic Council.
The author briefly reviews US relations with Sudan since the mid-1990s and then concludes that it is in America's interest that Sudan's political transition to civilian government succeeds. For that to happen, however, it must be more engaged than ever.
The Associated Press published on 7 December 2022 an article titled "Blinken Threatens Travel Ban for Sudanese Who Endanger Deal."
The US has warned Sudanese leaders that it will impose a travel ban on any individuals who threaten to derail Sudan's fragile democratic transition. Some key Sudanese actors have not signed on to the most recent deal between Sudan's military leaders and an important civil society organization.
The Associated Press published on 5 December 2022 an article titled "Sudan's Generals, Pro-democracy Group Ink Deal to End Crisis."
General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, and the Leaders of the Forces for the Declaration of Freedom and Change agreed to the broad outlines of a deal to resume Sudan's movement to democracy. The agreement does not have the support of key political forces, including the grassroots pro-democracy Resistance Committees. The lack of detail in the agreement also raises serious questions about its prospects for success.
The European Council on Foreign Relations published on 3 November 2022 a policy brief titled "Back to Barracks: Building Democracy after the Military Coup in Sudan" by Amgad Fareid Eltayeb, a Sudanese politician in Khartoum.
The author concludes that the international community has failed to find a viable political pathway to end Sudan's military coup because it is too focused on working with elites. It needs to grasp that both military and civilian elites are responsible for failing to open politics to the people of Sudan. Violence, repression, and unrest are widespread and splits in the military camp threaten to spill over into civil war. These splits also result in drawing Sudan into regional conflicts in neighboring countries.
The Associated Press published on 25 October 2022 an article titled "Thousands March in Khartoum on 1st Anniversary of Sudan Coup" by Jack Jeffrey.
One year after the military seized power from a coalition military-civilian government, civilian protesters have again taken to the streets to protest the military's action and demand a return to civilian rule.
The Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI) published on 3 October 2022 a commentary titled "Helping Put Sudan's Democratic Transition Back on Track" by Benjamin Oestericher, FPRI intern.
The author argues that the international community, especially the United States, failed to adequately support Sudan's civilian government during the key window of opportunity it had to gain the legitimacy of the Sudanese people. COVID-19, climate change, and serious flooding exacerbated the challenge.
Comment: The missing part of this argument is the unwillingness of the military, which has the guns, to yield meaningful power to a civilian government.
World Politics Review published on 23 September 2022 an analysis titled "Sudan's Stalled 'Transition' Could Create a Failed State" by Yasir Zaidan, National University of Sudan.
Sudan is facing institutional paralysis, an economic crisis, and deepening sociopolitical tensions that risk the result of a failed state.
The International Crisis Group published on 12 August 2022 an analysis titled "A Breakthrough in Sudan's Impasse?" by Alan Boswell.
The author suggests that the offer by Sudan's military government to withdraw from stalled negotiations with civilian political forces, assume only security responsibilities, and then negotiate powers with a new all civilian administration could be a breakthrough in resolving Sudan's governance deadlock. Or it could be a tactical maneuver to defuse popular unrest, shift blame for the deadlock and Sudan's economic problems to its civilian opponents, and offer a reason to assume total power.
Agence France Presse published on 4 July 2022 an article titled "Sudan's Burhan Says Army Stepping Back for Civilian Govt."
Sudan's military leader Abdel Fattah al-Burhan announced on July 4 "the armed forces will not stand in the way" of a democratic transition.
Comment: The question arises whether the military is sincere about permitting a transition to civilian government or only buying time while it strengthens its position. Past actions do not offer much encouragement that this is a sincere offer.
The Associated Press published on 30 June 2022 an article titled "Sudan Doctors: 5 People Killed in Mass Anti-coup Rallies" by Noha Elhennawy.
Large anti-government riots in Sudan resulted in 5 killed in the capital area and a major disruption of the internet.
Al-Monitor published on 16 June 2022 an article titled "US, Saudi Arabia Broker Talks to Break Sudan's Coup Deadlock" by Marc Espanol.
Sudan's military and one civilian faction met on 10 June for talks designed to break the deadlock on transitioning Sudan to civilian government. The United States and Saudi Arabia brokered the talks, which are ongoing. The gap remains wide between the two sides (actually three sides as an important civilian faction is boycotting the talks).
The Associated Press published on 8 June 2022 an article titled "Talks to End Sudan Crisis Begin as Anti-coup Groups Boycott" by Samy Magdy.
Talks are underway in Sudan to end the differences between the military, which controls the government, and civilians, who are pressing for a transition to democratic, civilian rule. Unfortunately, the Forces for Freedom and Change are boycotting the process.
