World Bank Assessment of Sub-Saharan Africa's Growth Prospects

 The World Bank Group published in April 2026 "Africa Economic Update: Making Industrial Policy Work in Africa."

The World Bank projects that growth in Sub-Saharan Africa for 2026 will average 4.1 percent, the same as in 2025.  Downside risks, however, are emerging due in large part to disruptions caused by the war in Iran.  They include rising fuel, food, and fertilizer prices together with tighter financial conditions that are likely to push inflation higher, disrupt economic activity, and disproportionately affect the most vulnerable households which spend a larger share of their income on food and energy.

China-EU Competition in Africa

 Courthouse News Service published on 9 October 2025 an article titled "EU Woos Mineral-rich Africa as China Tightens Resource Grip" by Yuval Molina Obedman.  

The European Union pledged $440 Billion through 2027 in infrastructure investment in Africa as it competes for influence with China. The EU program emphasizes private sector investment and blended finance using grants, loans, and guarantees.  

Departure of Ethiopia's Bank Governor

 Ethiopia Insight published on 23 September 2025 a commentary titled "Ethiopia's Central Bank Shake-Up: The Governor's Exit and What It Means" by Abrar Fitwi, Saint Mary's College in Indiana.

The departure of Ethiopia's central bank governor, Mamo Mihretu, highlights the unsettled nature of Ethiopia's economic adjustment efforts.  

South Sudan's Economy in Severe Crisis

 The World Bank published in March 2025 a major report titled "South Sudan Economic Monitor: A Pathway to Overcome the Crisis."

South Sudan's socio-economic outcomes have worsened over the past decade due to recurrent conflicts, fragility, and macroeconomic mismanagement compounded by global economic and climate shocks.  This dire situation is the result of: (1) nascent institutions and weak governance; (2) persistent mismanagement of the country's abundant natural capital, namely oil, and (3) recurrent community-level conflicts and violence that led to nationwide armed conflict in 2016 and localized ongoing conflict after the 2018 peace agreement.

South Sudan is now facing a severe crisis.  The economy is projected to contract by 30 percent in fiscal year 2024/2025, marking the fifth consecutive year of negative growth.  In fiscal year 2025, GDP per capita is estimated to decline to around half of the fiscal year 2020 levels.

US Grants Somalia Major Debt Cancellation

 The Guardian published on 6 November 2024 an article titled "US Cancels $1.1 Bn of Somalia's Debt in 'Historic' Financial Agreement" by Faisal Ali.  

Somalia announced the United States will cancel more than $1.1 billion in outstanding loans, which date back to the Siad Barre government that collapsed in 1991.  This is the largest single component of Somalia's $4.5 billion external debt.

Other Paris Club members also announced this year they are waiving $2 billion of additional debt.  These decisions will allow Somalia to more readily access public financing from international financial institutions.  

Ethiopia: Will Monetary Reform Save the Economy?

 Ethiopia Insight published on 5 November 2024 a commentary titled "Now the Birr Floats, Will Ethiopia Sink or Swim?" by Muktar Ismail, regional analyst and former advisor to the president of Somali Region.  

Last July, Ethiopia adopted a market-determined exchange rate, lifted most current account restrictions, and modernized its monetary policy framework in order to pave the way for International Monetary Fund and World Bank bailouts.

Ethiopia has regressed from two decades of economic and social progress and faces growing economic challenges.  The recent economic policy reform has witnessed a plummeting depreciation of the currency and strong inflationary pressure.  The author concludes that IMF and donor financing are unlikely to stabilize an economy plagued by conflict, poor management, and rapid currency depreciation.  

Ethiopia's Use of Drones Against Fano Rebels

 The Hill published on 31 October 2024 a commentary titled "Ethiopia's Drone Massacres Demand that US and World Pay Attention" by Mesfin Tegenu, American Ethiopian Public Affairs Committee.

The government of Ethiopia has been using Turkish-made drones to attack Fano rebels in Amhara Region.  The author says one of these drones recently hit a health center in the town of Gojjam resulting in the death of a child and village elder.  

Ethiopia's External Debt Dilemma

 Reuters published on 1 October 2024 an article titled "Ethiopia Expects 'Tangible Progress' on Deal with Creditor Nations by December" by Duncan Miriri.

Ethiopia defaulted on its external debt in December 2023 and hopes to reach a deal with creditors by the end of this year.  Ethiopia's debt stands at about $29 billion with half of it owed to multilateral lenders like the IMF, World Bank, and African Development Bank.  Of the $12 billion owed to bilateral lenders, China accounts for more than $7 billion, Paris Club countries under $2 billion, and Saudi Arabia just over $1 billion.  

Criticism of Ethiopia's Agreement with the IMF

 Ethiopia Insight published on 8 August 2024 a commentary titled "The Addis-Washington Consensus and Its Democratic Deficit" by Fassil Hailu, a pen name for a columnist with Ethiopia Insight.

The $3.4 billion International Monetary Fund agreement with Ethiopia requires a number of economic reforms.  The author believes that the Ethiopian government is captive to the IMF for the entire duration of the reform package and that the Fund enjoys undue influence.   

China's Huawei to Build Digital Infrastructure in Guinea

 Wearetech.africa posted on 6 August 2024 an article titled "Guinea, Huawei Partner to Expand Digital Infrastructure, ICT Access" by Samira Njoya.

Guinea signed a memorandum of understanding with China's Huawei to develop high speed digital networks, including fiber optics, throughout the country.  Guinea received $60 million from the World Bank for digital products.  

Podcast on African Conflict and Development

 The UK-based Centre for African Conflict and Development posted on 22 July 2024 a 44-minute podcast with me titled "Austerity Measures, Right to Protest and Police in Kenya, Africa" hosted by Michael Nwankpa.  

Although focused on Kenya, the host asked questions on a variety of topics ranging across Africa allowing me to offer views on numerous topics based on my association with Africa dating back to the early 1960s.  

China's Role in Kenya's Debt Crisis

 The Voice of America published on 28 June 2024 an article titled "Deadly Kenya Protests Spurred by International Debt Woes" by Kate Bartlett.

Deadly protests in Kenya resulted following parliamentary action to pass legislation for raising taxes to pay for debt servicing.  Most of Kenya's debt is owed to international financial institutions and holders of Eurobonds.  China has provided Kenya more loans than any other single country but Nairobi's debt to Beijing is well below what it owes to all other sources of loans.  

Kenya's Debt Crisis and China

India's Firstpost posted on 26 June 2024 a 6-minute video titled "Is Chinese Debt the Reason Kenya Wants to Raise Taxes?" 

The video spells out the background of Kenya's $76 billion public debt, noting that much of it is owned to the World Bank, IMF, African Development Bank, and reimbursement of Eurobonds.  But China is the single largest bilateral holder of Kenyan debt and Nairobi faces an upcoming repayment to Beijing of $1.2 billion that it is hard pressed to manage.

Kenyan President's State Visit to US

 CNN published on 23 May an article titled "Biden Looks to Counter China's Influence as He Rolls Out Red Carpet for Kenya" by Kevin Liptak and Kayla Tausche.

The article places the state visit to the United States by Kenyan President William Ruto in the context of competition between Washington and Beijing for economic and political influence in Africa.

Comment:  While competition with China is often a sub theme of US policy in Africa, it is a mistake to conclude it is the driving factor.  Washington needs and wants to develop stronger relations across the continent for its own interests, which extend far beyond what China is doing in Africa.  

Pledges at International Humanitarian Conference for Sudan

 The French Ministry of Foreign Affairs published on 15 April 2024 a press release titled "International Humanitarian Conference for Sudan and Neighboring Countries."

France, Germany, and the European Union hosted in Paris on 15 April an international humanitarian pledging conference for Sudan and refugees in neighboring countries.  The conference raised $2.2 billion.

The press release included a listing of the individual financial pledges.

The World Bank pledged the most at $555 million, followed by the EU ($385 million), Germany ($265 million), the United States ($162 million), and France ($119 million).  Notably absent from the pledging conference were China, Russia, and all Arab countries except for the UAE ($100 million), Saudi Arabia ($61 million), and Qatar ($25 million).  

The Future of Chinese Lending to Africa

 The Diplomat published on 11 January 2024 an analysis titled "What Lies Ahead for Chinese Lending to Africa?" by Trevor Lwere, Development Reimagined.

Development Reimagined believes China's lending to Africa will rise in 2024, although the author warns there are four reasons why the organization is cautious about its prediction on the upside.

Comment:  Chinese lending to Africa declined from a peak of $28 billion in 2016 to just over $1 billion in 2021 and just under $1 billion in 2022.  It was also low in 2023, but figures are not yet available.  China should not find it difficult to exceed these low totals in recent years, but with its new focus on "small and beautiful" the glory years of Chinese infrastructure lending to Africa are not likely to return.  

Financing African Energy Projects

 The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace published in November 2023 a paper titled "Who Finances Energy Projects in Africa?" by Oyintarelado Moses.  

The largest energy finance providers in Africa between 2012 and 2021 were China, World Bank, Italy, France, and the United States.  The top African recipients of energy during these years were Egypt, Mozambique, Nigeria, South Africa, and Angola.  

China-Africa Debt Relations

 South Africa's Institute for Security Studies published on 2 November 2023 a brief paper titled "Navigating the Complex Terrain of China-Africa Debt Relations" by Jana De Kluiver.  

Public debt in Africa has surged to $1.8 trillion.  China extended loans exceeding $170 million to 49 African nations and regional institutions between 2000 and 2022.  This paper is a summary of a longer report that comments on China's role in African debt.  

Kenya-China Ties: Infrastructure, Trade Deficits, and Debt

 Kenya's Business Daily published on 24 October 2023 an article titled "Treasury: What Kenya Got from China" by Kepha Muiruri.  

While Kenya has benefited from Chinese financing of major infrastructure projects, it means that China is the third largest holder of Kenya's external debt after the World Bank and Eurobonds.  An article on President William Ruto's attendance at the Belt and Road Initiative Forum in Beijing also charts Kenya-China trade since 2018, which documents a huge and consistent Kenyan trade deficit with China. 

Africa's Unreported Debt to China

 The Review of International Organizations published in September 2023 an analysis titled "Why Hide? Africa's Unreported Debt to China" by Kathleen J. Brown.  

Governments intentionally hide debts from international financial institutions to maximize their ability to borrow while avoiding punishment for rising debt burdens.  Half of the Chinese loans in Sub-Saharan Africa are missing from sovereign debt records.  Using data from Chinese bilateral loans to Sub-Saharan Africa, the author provides evidence that borrower governments intentionally hide debt from international financial institutions to circumvent constraints placed on their external debt.