Ethiopia-Egypt Disagreement Over Nile Water Usage May Require Mediation

 The New Arab published on 4 September 2026 an article titled "A New Crisis Is Brewing over the Nile between Egypt and Ethiopia, Unless Mediators Step In" by Jonathan Fenton-Harvey.

Ethiopia announced earlier this year plans to construct three more hydropower dams on the Blue Nile, where the recently completed Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam is located.  This announcement has alarmed downstream Egypt.  The author suggests the solution to the disagreement between Egypt and Ethiopia may be mediation.

Environmental Catastrophe in South Sudan's Unity State

 New Lines Magazine published on 24 August 2026 an article titled "Living on the Edge of South Sudan's Toxic Floodplains" by Buster Emil Kirchner and Marco Simoncelli.

Defunct oil installations in South Sudan's Unity State are creating a toxic brew after recurring floods.  Contaminated drinking water poses a health hazard for thousands of families and their livestock.  Past oil extraction practices failed to take into account this environmental disaster.

Long-term Impact of South Sudan Flooding

 Deutsche Welle published on 4 August 2026 an article titled "South Sudan: How Climate Change Can Turn Toxic" by Buster Emil Kirchner and Marco Simoncelli.

Devastating flooding in South Sudan's Unity State in 2021 continues to have negative impacts on the environment and the wellbeing of people living in the affected area.  More than 50 of South Sudan's 400 oil wells remain submerged, which has contaminated water and farmland.  This has led to a variety of health problems.

Somalis Flee Prolonged Drought and May Face Flooding Next

 The Associated Press published on 12 August 2026 an article titled "Thousands Flee Yearslong Drought in Somalia as Hunger Deepens and Aid Shrinks" by Mohamed Sheikh Nor and Omar Faruk.  

About two million people in southern Somalia are facing emergency levels of food insecurity as a result of drought over the past four years.  EL Nino conditions are likely to exacerbate the situation by creating flooding during Somalia's October to December rainy season.  International food assistance is in short supply.  

Building Resilient Cities in Somalia

 The Heritage Institute for Policy Studies published in December 2025 a study titled "Building Resilient Cities: Environmental Protection and Construction Safety in Somalia's Urban Development" by Abdullahi Ali Mohamed.  

The study highlights how unregulated construction, environmental degradation and intensifying climate shocks are reinforcing urban fragility amid weak institutional capacity.  It outlines an integrated policy framework focused on sustainable urban planning, professionalizing the construction sector, and strengthening climate resilience.  

Podcast on Background and Future Impact of Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam

 The International Crisis Group (ICG) posted on 26 September 2025 a 39-minute podcast titled "Ethiopia's Grand and Contested Dam" with Murithi Mutiga and Alan Boswell, both with the ICG.

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam is the largest in Africa and was financed mostly by Ethiopians.  Egypt perceived the dam as a threat to its downstream water supply while Ethiopia saw it as an essential hydropower development project.  Sudan was caught in the middle, seeing both potential benefits and problems, but has recently sided with Egypt.  

Now that the dam is completed, Egypt's major concern as a downstream country is low water flow during successive years of drought in the Nile Basin.  Reduction of tension between Ethiopia and Egypt requires trust building.  In the meantime, there is the possibility of Egyptian proxy activity aimed at Ethiopia.  

Ethiopia's Grand Dam Going Forward

 The Foreign Policy Research Institute published on 17 September 2025 an analysis titled "The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam: A Regional Destabilizer or a New Model for Development?" by Charles A. Ray.

Given that the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam is now a fact, the issue going forward is one of fairness in sharing the water throughout the Nile Basin. 

China's Rosewood Imports from Africa Harm Environment

 Foreign Policy published on 9 September 2025 an article titled "China's Appetite for Rosewood Is Causing Chaos in Africa" by Caroline Costello and Joshua Eisenman.  

China imported an estimated $2 billion of rosewood from Africa between 2017 and 2022.  Much of the logging for this rare timber is illegal.  Extreme drought and flooding linked to the loss of rosewood trees have had devastating agricultural impacts.

Keeping Climate Change as Part of South Sudanese Peacekeeping

 The International Crisis Group published on 28 April 2025 a paper titled "The Stakes of Stripping Climate from UN Peacekeeping in South Sudan" by Nazanine Moshiri.  

The UN Security Council will soon vote on the future of the peacekeeping mission in conflict-impacted South Sudan.  The paper discusses what is at stake and why climate and peace should remain part of the mission's work.  

Is South Sudan First Case of Permanent Mass Displacement Due to Climate Change?

 The Conversation published on 10 September 2024 a commentary titled "South Sudan Floods: The First Example of a Mass Population Permanently Displaced by Climate Change?" by Liz Stephens, University of Reading, and Jacob Levi, Institute of International Health, Berlin University of Medicine.  

Floods have engulfed much of South Sudan.  Hundreds of thousands of people have been displaced from the Sudd due to flooding along the White Nile.  The floods seem to be getting worse each year, raising concerns that many South Sudanese will be permanently displaced.

Wall Street Journal Video on Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam

 The Wall Street Journal posted on 13 June 2024 a six and one-half-minute video titled "Why Ethiopia's $5 Billion Megadam Worries Egypt and Sudan."

The video reviews the well-known concerns of Egypt and Sudan about the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile.  It points out that so far the holding back of water behind the dam has not caused any harm to Sudan and Egypt and has actually helped control flooding in Sudan.  The makers of the video were unable to obtain comments from any of the three governments. 

Explanation of Recent Severe Flooding in Southern Ethiopia, Eastern Kenya, and Somalia

 World Weather Attribution posted on 7 December 2023 an academic study by various specialists titled "Compounding Natural Hazards and High Vulnerability Led to Severe Impacts from Horn of Africa Flooding Exacerbated by Climate Change and Indian Ocean Dipole."

After years of drought, the short rainy season (October to December) in the Horn of Africa brought exceptionally heavy rains, particularly in November, leading to severe flooding in the south of Ethiopia, eastern Kenya, and many regions in southern and central Somalia.  In Somalia alone, more than 100 Somalis lost their lives and more than one million have been displaced.  

Climate change and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) contributed approximately equally to the flooding event.  The IOD is a natural phenomenon that oscillates between neutral, positive, and negative phases while human-induced climate change will continue to increase until the burning of fossil fuels is stopped.  

Somalia: Think Long Term, Not Quick Fixes

 World Politics Review published on 1 December 2023 a commentary titled "Somalia Needs Realistic Objectives, Not Quick Fixes" by Omar Mahmood and Nicolas Delaunay, both with the International Crisis Group. 

Al-Shabaab retains clan support in parts of central Somalia and has demonstrated resilience over the years.  President Hassan Sheikh needs to focus on long-term policies and show that the Somali government can provide better services for the Somali people and roll out genuine national reconciliation programs that bring peace dividends.  

Climate Change and Conflict in the Horn of Africa

 The Heritage Institute published in September 2023 conference proceedings titled "Climate Change and Conflict in the Horn: Challenges, Responses and New Mandates."

These 15 papers focus primarily on Somalia.  They conclude that climate and weather variability are threatening agricultural and livestock production systems on which the livelihood of over 70 percent of Somali society depends.  Civil conflicts undermine domestic production, impede investments in the key economic sectors and increase rural urban migration as well as the costs of production.  Al-Shabaab remains the defining feature of Somalia's unending conflict landscape.  Weak governance compounds the effect of climate shocks.  Inadequate climate finance will limit the ability of countries in the Horn of Africa to mitigate climate change impacts.  

Submerged Land in South Sudan Poses New Threat

 The Washington Post published on 2 November 2023 a long article titled "Years into a Climate Disaster, These People Are Eating the Unthinkable" by Chico Harlan.

Long subject to civil war and corruption, climate change has now caused excess water in parts of South Sudan with 15 percent of the country submerged for years.  The impact on food supply has been catastrophic.  The only cure for the flooding is evaporation and time.  The only solution for the people living in these affected areas is to move elsewhere, a problematic option.  

Nile River, Basin, Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, and Climate Change

Nature Climate Change published in January 2023 a study titled "Cooperative Adaptive Management of the Nile River with Climate and Socio-Economic Uncertainties" by ten experts in the United Kingdom. 

This technical study presents a planning framework for adaptive management of the Nile infrastructure system, combining climate projections; hydrological, river system and economy-wide simulators; and artificial intelligence multi-objective design and machine learning algorithms.  It concludes that if Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt compromise cooperatively and adaptively in managing the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, the national-level economic and resilience benefits are substantial, especially under climate projections with the most extreme streamflow changes.  

War Damage to Tigray Region's Environment

 Ethiopia Insight published on 22 February 2023 a commentary titled "War and Siege Inflicted Damage on Tigray's Ecosystem" by Emnet Negash, Ghent University, and Emiru Birhane, Mekelle University.  

The war in Ethiopia's Tigray Region resulted in significant damage to agriculture, animal herds, reforestation, wildlife, and the environment generally.

Food Insecurity and Conflict in South Sudan

 The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute posted on 16 December 2022 a seven minute video titled "Food Security and Why It Matters for Peace in South Sudan."

One third of South Sudan's population or 8.3 million people are currently food insecure.  The video is made in Jonglei State and discusses the intersection of conflict, drought, flooding, and climate change, which has resulted in a humanitarian crisis.  

World Bank Rewards and Warns Ethiopia

 The Addis Standard published on 15 December 2022 an article titled "WB Emphasizes Importance of Ending Ethiopia's Internal Conflict, Full Implementation of Peace Agreement, Board Approves $745 m Grant."

The World Bank approved $745 million in grants for health systems and flood management in Ethiopia.  The Bank also emphasized the importance of ending internal conflict and achieving lasting peace.  

Ethiopia: Multiple Issues Displace Somalis

 Ethiopia Insight published on 11 October 2022 a commentary titled "The Mass Exodus of Ethiopian Somalis to Sitti Zone" by Mohamed Hadi Gafdiid, a humanitarian worker in Somali Region.  

The Somali residents of Sitti zone, formerly know as Shinile, have experienced conflict with neighboring Afars, drought, and flooding.  The result has been massive displacement.  In some cases, Afar militants armed with heavy weapons to combat Tigrayans have turned them on Somalis.