A Retrospective on Sudan-South Sudan Separation and the Future

 The International Crisis Group posted on 18 August 2026 an hour-long podcast titled "Sudan's Separation Fifteen Years Ago and Today's Disaster" with Alan Boswell, Alex de Waal, and Abdul Mohammed.  

Alex de Waal and Abdul Mohammed review the background of South Sudan's independence from Sudan and the African Union High-Level Implementation Panel led by former South African President Thabo Mbeki.  They explained why negotiations ultimately failed to produce two viable states, and whether such coordinated high-level diplomacy is still possible in today's fragmented regional geopolitics.

Efforts to resolve the crises in Sudan and South Sudan today are experiencing greater involvement from the Gulf States and involve a larger number of competing actors.  Mediation today is extremely difficult.  The global environment is highly transactional.  The situation also has the possibility of becoming a regional war.  It is time for the African Union to step forward and play a stronger role in ending the conflicts.  

Ethiopia's Economy Moves from China Model to Africa's Free Agent

 Forbes published on 1 July 2026 an article titled "Ethiopia: From China's Star Pupil to Africa's Free Agent" by Wesley Alexander Hill.

For years, China found an eager partner in Meles Zenawi's Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front, which ruled Ethiopia and embraced elements of China's development model.  It delivered impressive economic growth for many years, but it also contained structural weaknesses that Beijing's own system largely avoided.  

The rise of Abiy Ahmed marked the end of this era.  Ethiopia's current economic strategy represents one of Africa's most consequential experiments in macroeconomic liberalization.

Interpreting Ethiopia's Constitution

 Ethiopia Insight published on 13 February 2026 a commentary titled "Reimagining Ethiopia's Constitutional Architecture" by Nagessa Dube, a lawyer in Seattle, Washington.

The author argues that Ethiopia needs constitutional reform.  Courts now have almost no authority to interpret the constitution; it is in the hands of a political body.  He believes constitutional interpretation needs to be transferred to an independent judiciary and the ongoing National Dialogue offers a rare chance to make this change.  

Podcast on Background and Future Impact of Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam

 The International Crisis Group (ICG) posted on 26 September 2025 a 39-minute podcast titled "Ethiopia's Grand and Contested Dam" with Murithi Mutiga and Alan Boswell, both with the ICG.

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam is the largest in Africa and was financed mostly by Ethiopians.  Egypt perceived the dam as a threat to its downstream water supply while Ethiopia saw it as an essential hydropower development project.  Sudan was caught in the middle, seeing both potential benefits and problems, but has recently sided with Egypt.  

Now that the dam is completed, Egypt's major concern as a downstream country is low water flow during successive years of drought in the Nile Basin.  Reduction of tension between Ethiopia and Egypt requires trust building.  In the meantime, there is the possibility of Egyptian proxy activity aimed at Ethiopia.  

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam: The Role of Key Leaders in Its Development

 The blog of Lawrence Freeman posted on 24 July 2025 an article titled "The Legacy & Vision of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam."

The article examines the historical context of Nile water usage, the roles played by four Ethiopian leaders in advancing the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, and the dam's prospects for aiding Ethiopia's sovereignty and prosperity.  

Alhurra Interview on the Horn of Africa

 Alhurra has just posted a 30-minute interview with me in English and with Arabic subtitles on "The Diplomat" dealing with the Horn of Africa.

Much of the interview focuses on US diplomacy during the Ethiopia-Eritrea war that broke out in 1998.  There is also a discussion of US policy towards Sudan and the genocide in Rwanda.

An Insider Disects the Collapse of the Tigray People's Liberation Front

 Ethiopia Insight published on 26 May 2025 a commentary titled "TPLF Insider Blows Lid Off Party's Long Road to Collapse."

An anonymous former Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) leader discusses the unraveling of the party.  The insider argues that the TPLF's problems were not caused by any one person but were a cumulative disaster decades in the making.

Meles Would End Political Squabbling in Tigray Region

 Ethiopia Insight published on 16 September 2024 a commentary titled "Tigray's Squabbling Leaders Should Honor Meles' Legacy" by Mulugeta Gebregziabher, Medical University of South Carolina.  

While the author praises the legacy of Meles Zenawi, he also acknowledges some faults.  More importantly, he suggests Meles would end the squabbling over power and waste of time and resources demonstrated by the current leaders of Tigray Region.  

Podcast on Ethiopia and the Horn of Africa

 Seattle-based Dhugaa Media posted on 3 February 2024 a 54-minute podcast titled "Focus on Ethiopia and the Horn Region" with me moderated by Nagessa Oddo Dube.  

This is a wide-ranging discussion of issues in the Horn of Africa with a focus on Ethiopia, Somalia, Somaliland, Djibouti, and Eritrea.  

Argument for Ethiopian Port and Navy

 Ken Opalo posted on 3 November 2023 a commentary titled "Ethiopia Needs a Reliable Seaport and a Navy."

The author makes the case why landlocked Ethiopia should have reliable access to a seaport and a navy as a guarantor of its economic interests in the Red Sea and Indian Ocean.  

Michela Wrong's Account of Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki

 The Economist's 1843 Magazine published on 28 September 2023 a long commentary on Eritrea's President Isaias Afwerki titled "The Surprising Triumph of 'Africa's Kim Jong Un'" by Michela Wrong.

A political survivor with close ties to China, Isaias survived a crushing defeat by Ethiopia's military in their 1998-2000 war to emerge as an ally, and some would say senior partner, in Ethiopia's internal war against Tigray Region, which borders Eritrea and took place from 2020 to 2022.  According to Wrong, Isaias has always believed he could control much larger and wealthier Ethiopia.  

Podcast on Eritrea's Feud with Ethiopia's Tigray

 The International Crisis Group posted a 50-minute podcast with Michael Woldemariam, University of Maryland, titled "Eritrea's Long Bitter Feud with Ethiopia's Tigray" moderated by Alan Boswell.  

The podcast provides a background on the feud between the government of Eritrea and the TPLF leadership in Tigray Region.  Eritrea has dedicated significant forces to the Ethiopian central government effort to defeat Tigrayans in the civil war that broke out in 2020.  The immediate withdrawal of Eritrean forces from Ethiopia is essential to a successful end of the conflict.  At the same time, there needs to be a conversation about Eritrea's security concerns.  

Ethiopian Political Developments Since World War II

 A Reuters Special Report published on 21 December 2021 is an account titled "A Fractured Giant: Ethiopia's Struggle to Build a Nation" by Matthew Green.

This is a review of political developments in Ethiopia since World War II, supplemented with photographs during the different periods.

Why Ethiopia Should Trust the West

 Foreign Policy published on 10 November 2021 a commentary titled "Why Ethiopia Should Trust the West" by Seifudein Adem, Doshisha University in Japan.

The author concludes that it appears Ethiopia is reaching a stage where it cannot save itself and only the West has the willingness and capacity to rescue the Ethiopian state from devouring its own citizens--and eventually itself.  US efforts to help Ethiopia have led to anti-Americanism in Ethiopia that is not ideological and is, therefore, a short-term phenomenon.  It is connected with what the United States is perceived to be doing rather than what the United States is.  At such a perilous moment, it is important for ordinary Ethiopians to understand why they should trust the West.

The underlying frame of reference of the conflict in Tigray region is the contrasting visions of two groups--Amhara and Tigrayan elites--about the future direction of Ethiopia.  Tigrayan elites want to keep ethnic federalism while Amhara elites want to abolish ethnic federalism because it undermines Ethiopia's unity.  

Ethiopia's Western friends can help the country as it tries to heal itself.  If Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed wants to keep Ethiopia together, he will be better off embracing Western efforts rather than shunning them. 

Comment:  A great deal of ink has been spilled in recent months on the humanitarian crisis and civil war in Ethiopia.  The comments by Seifudein Adem are among the most rational and constructive that I have seen.  

Ethiopia: Two Views of the TPLF

 Ethiopia Insight published on 17 October 2021 a commentary titled "Contextualizing an Ethiopia 'Terrorist' Organization" by Yebio Woldemariam, York College of CUNY.  

This is a provocative commentary that looks at the Tigray People's Liberation Front from two perspectives.  

Ethiopia Inaugurates Chinese-built and Largely Financed Renamed Excellence Academy

 Walta News Agency published on 27 June 2021 an article titled "PM Inaugurates African Leadership Excellence Academy."  

The purpose is to train diplomatic, military and business leaders in Ethiopia.  Ethiopia funded one-third of the cost and China funded two-thirds.  A Chinese company built the Academy.

The Fortune newspaper published on 26 June 2021 an article titled "PM Inaugurates Renamed Leadership Academy."

The article reports that just before the inauguration, the Council of Ministers approved a motion to change the name of the Academy from the Meles Zenawi Leadership Academy to the African Leadership Excellence Academy.  It seems that it is no longer politically correct to use the name of the former Tigrayan prime minister in the name of the Academy.  

The Sudan-Ethiopia Border Dispute

 The International Crisis Group (ICG) published on 24 June 2021 an analysis titled "Containing the Volatile Sudan-Ethiopia Border Dispute."

Ethiopia and Sudan are locked in a dangerous military standoff over a piece of fertile borderland farmed by Ethiopian farmers but claimed by Sudan.  External partners should urge the two countries to find a land-use compromise similar to an earlier soft border arrangement without linking the issue to other contentious issues.  

Eritrea Goes from Pariah State to Regional Powerbroker

 World Politics Review published on 1 June 2021 a commentary titled "Eritrea Goes from Pariah State to Regional Powerbroker" by Tanja Muller, University of Manchester.

The author concludes that in the last three years, Eritrea has gone from being an international pariah state to an increasingly visible and influential regional power broker in the Horn of Africa.  Beginning in 2018, with its normalization of diplomatic relations with Ethiopia and Somalia, and more recently with its military assistance to Ethiopia in Tigray Region, the secretive, dictatorial state has broken out of the isolation it previously faced.

Eritrea's Goals in the Red Sea Basin

 The International Crisis Group posted on 6 April 2021 a 45-minute podcast titled "What Eritrea Wants" with Alan Boswell and Harry Verhoeven, a scholar on international politics in Africa.

Following the political transition in Ethiopia and Eritrea's alliances with Gulf states across the Red Sea, Asmara is looking to shape the region in its favor.  According to Verhoeven, Eritrean President Isaias believes the current conflict in Tigray Region is creating new political and security imbalances in the Horn of Africa that open the door to even more conflict.  Isaias is a realist who primarily acts to protect what he has built in Eritrea.

VOA Summarizes Roots of Conflict in Tigray

 The Voice of  America posted on 1 April 2021 a seven minute video titled "Tigray, Ethiopia: From Conflict to Humanitarian Crisis."

The VOA summarizes the roots of the current conflict in Ethiopia's Tigray Region, making every effort to provide balance as it does so.