A Retrospective on Sudan-South Sudan Separation and the Future

 The International Crisis Group posted on 18 August 2026 an hour-long podcast titled "Sudan's Separation Fifteen Years Ago and Today's Disaster" with Alan Boswell, Alex de Waal, and Abdul Mohammed.  

Alex de Waal and Abdul Mohammed review the background of South Sudan's independence from Sudan and the African Union High-Level Implementation Panel led by former South African President Thabo Mbeki.  They explained why negotiations ultimately failed to produce two viable states, and whether such coordinated high-level diplomacy is still possible in today's fragmented regional geopolitics.

Efforts to resolve the crises in Sudan and South Sudan today are experiencing greater involvement from the Gulf States and involve a larger number of competing actors.  Mediation today is extremely difficult.  The global environment is highly transactional.  The situation also has the possibility of becoming a regional war.  It is time for the African Union to step forward and play a stronger role in ending the conflicts.  

UN Peacekeepers Defy South Sudan Government Order to Abandon Town

 The Associated Press published on 10 March 2026 an article titled "UN Peacekeepers Defy South Sudan Military's Order to Leave Opposition-held Town" by Florence Miettaux and Deng Machol.  

The UN peacekeeping mission in South Sudan refused to comply with an order from the South Sudan government to shut down its base in Akobo, an opposition stronghold near the Ethiopian border where thousands of refugees have fled.  South Sudan government forces intend to attack the town.

Cutting Foreign Aid Is a Costly Mistake

 The Washington Post published on 17 June 2025 a commentary titled "The Retreat from Aid Is a Costly Mistake" by Eduardo Porter.

While the Trump administration has thrown foreign aid into the woodchipper, other Western countries including the UK, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Netherlands, Norway, and Sweden have cut development assistance budgets.  Their cuts have not been as dramatic as the US dismantlement of USAID, but the author explains why these changes are a mistake.   

Video on War in the Red Sea?

 The Indian news channel Times Now posted on 26 December 2023 a 4-minute video titled "War in the Red Sea?" showing US naval vessels countering Houthi drone and missile attacks on shipping off the coast of Yemen.  

US-led Red Sea Protection Force

 The Associated Press published on 19 December 2023 an article titled "Pentagon Announces New International Maritime Protection Force for the Red Sea."

At any given time, there are about 400 commercial vessels transiting the southern Red Sea in an area where Iranian-supported and Yemen-based Houthis are attacking commercial shipping with drones and ballistic missiles.  Consequently, the United States has organized Operation Prosperity Guardian to protect all ships transiting the Red Sea.  So far, the UK, Bahrain, Canada, France, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Seychelles, and Spain have joined the security mission. 

One notably absent participant is China, which has three PLA Navy ships (usually two frigates and a supply ship) permanently assigned in the area.  So far, those ships have not responded to previous calls for assistance by commercial vessels even though some of the ships attacked have had ties to Hong Kong.  

US and UN Urged to Step In to End Atrocities in Sudan's Darfur

 Aljazeera published on 4 August 2023 an article titled "Human Rights Watch Urges US to Stop Atrocities in Sudan's Darfur."

The United States, United Kingdom, and Norway condemned in "the strongest terms" continuing violence in Darfur.  Human Rights Watch appealed to the US and UN to impose further sanctions on the Sudanese individuals responsible for the atrocities in Darfur.

Comment:  Unfortunately, additional sanctions on individuals are unlikely to have any impact on this situation.  The deployment of massive numbers of foreign peacekeepers might make a difference, but there is no appetite in the international community for such action. 

Peace Prospects for Ethiopia's Oromia

 Ethiopia Insight published on 30 April 2023 a commentary titled "Is Peace Finally Coming to Ethiopia's Oromia Region?" by Ermias Tasfaye, Ethiopia Insight reporter.

Talks on Zanzibar between the Ethiopian government and the Oromo Liberation Army are giving rise to hopes that peace may be coming to Oromia.  

US and Europe Warn Sudan's Military

 ABC News published on 5 January 2022 an article titled "US, Europe Warn Sudan's Military as Democratic Transition Unravels" by Conor Finnegan and Morgan Winsor.

As street protests continue in Sudan, the United States and Europe are taking a strong stand against efforts by the military to thwart the democratic transition.   

Sudan: Tough Troika and EU Statement

 The Troika (Norway, UK and US) and European Union issued a blunt statement on 4 January 2022 calling for implementation of the 2019 Constitutional Declaration, broad-based engagement of Sudanese civil society, holding accountable of military authorities for human rights violations, and the transition to civilian government and democracy.

Have Sudan's Generals Overplayed Their Hand?

 World Politics Review published on 29 October 2021 an analysis titled "Sudan's Military Might Have Overplayed Its Hand" by Chris Olaoluwa Ogunmodede.

The author, citing the strong negative response from most of the international community to the power grab in Sudan by the military and large street protests planned for 30 October in Sudan, suggests that the leaders of the coup may have overplayed their hand and now face a situation that they will not be able to control.  

China, Russia, and India Support Ethiopia's Policy in Tigray

 The Reporter (Addis Ababa) published on 28 August 2021 an article titled "Ethiopia Stands Firm at the UNSC."

China, Russia, and India essentially supported Ethiopia's handling of the humanitarian crisis in Tigray Region in the face of criticism from the United States, UK, Estonia, France, Ireland, and Norway.  China emphasized the need to respect Ethiopia's national sovereignty.

Kenya-Somalia Indian Ocean Boundary Dispute

World Politics Review published on 6 April 2020 an analysis titled "Kenya and Somalia's Long-Simmering Territorial Dispute Threatens to Boil Over" by Julian Hattem.

High level diplomacy to solve the Indian Ocean boundary dispute between Somalia and Kenya has been halted by the coronavirus pandemic. As a result, the situation is ripe for small scale skirmishes and shows of force by both sides.

South Sudan: Peace Requires New Leadership

Foreign Policy posted on 11 November 2019 a commentary titled "South Sudan's Proposed Unity Government Is Still Divided" by Jon Temin, Freedom House.

The author concludes that the broader goal of U.S. policy should be the departure of both Salva Kiir and Riek Machar so that South Sudanese politics can move forward.

How Does Sudan's President Stay in Power?

Al Jazeera ran a 25-minute podcast on 8 April 2019 titled "What's Keeping Sudan's President Omar Al-Bashir in Power?" with Khalid Omer Yousif, secretary-general of the opposition Sudanese Congress Party, Jean-Baptiste Gallopin, Yale University, and me.

The discussion focused on the prospects for President Omar al-Bashir retaining power and the factors that are likely to result in his continuing in power or being removed.

No End to Protests in Sudan

Chatham House posted on 15 March 2019 a commentary titled "Pressure from the People in Sudan" by Dame Rosalind Marsden.

The author concludes that the protests in Sudan have become a war of attrition, with neither side willing to give up. What is clear, however, is that pressure for change will continue to come from the Sudanese street, and that the government has not articulated answers to the root causes of the crisis.

Salvaging South Sudan's Fragile Peace

The International Crisis Group (ICG) published on 13 March 2019 a report titled "Salvaging South Sudan's Fragile Peace Deal."

The peace deal under discussion neither resolves the power struggle between President Salva Kiir and erstwhile rebel leader Riek Machar nor outlines a final political settlement for South Sudan. Rather, it establishes a wobbly Kiir-Machar truce and grafts it onto the previous failed peace terms. ICG argues that to stave off renewed civil war, external actors should urge the belligerents to strike new bargains on security and internal boundaries and accept a third-party protection force for the capital of Juba.

Comments to Al-Jazeera on Situation in Sudan

Al-Jazeera asked me to comment on 20 January 2019 on the situation in Sudan. The four minute video segment appeared during its regular news program.

A Peaceful Transition in Sudan?

The International Crisis Group (ICG) published on 14 January 2019 an analysis titled "Improving Prospects for a Peaceful Transition in Sudan."

The ICG concludes that President Omar al-Bashir is running out of time. Unable to reverse the economic deterioration, he must rely on repression to contain a population increasingly enraged at worsening living conditions. But the harsher his repression, the more probable his relations with the West deteriorate again and the farther the funds necessary to turn around the economy slip from his reach. Bashir may well survive this round of protests. But if he does, it will almost certainly be at the cost of further economic decline, greater popular anger, more protests and even tougher crackdowns. At some point, his departure appears inevitable. Outside powers should do everything possible to prevent violence in the meantime, work for as smooth a transition as possible and find him an exit.

South Sudan: On the Brink of Renewed War

The International Crisis Group (ICG) published on 17 December 2015 an alert titled "South Sudan: On the Brink of Renewed War."  ICG reports that the peace agreement between the SPLM and SPLM-IO is weakening as low level conflict continues in Unity state and conflict is escalating in the Equatorias and Western Bahr el Ghazal. 

South Sudan: How to End the Misery

The visit by President Obama to Kenya and Ethiopia, especially the meeting in Addis Ababa with regional leaders on South Sudan, has resulted in numerous opinion pieces in the American media on ways to solve the crisis in South Sudan. 

One of the most recent is an editorial in the 29 July 2015 Washington Post titled "It's Time to Act to Stop South Sudan's Unraveling."

Earlier, Akshaya Kumar and John Prendergast with the Enough project laid out a detailed list of suggestions for dealing with South Sudan titled "Creating a Cost for Those Destroying South Sudan." 

Andrew Natsios, former US envoy for Sudan, wrote on 28 July 2015 an oped in The New York Times titled "A New Approach for South Sudan."