Has Civil War Returned to South Sudan?

 AEI's Critical Threats Africa File posted on 12 February 2026 an article titled "South Sudan" by Michael DeAngelo.

The Sudan People's Liberation Movement-in-Opposition (SPLM-IO) and the Nuer White Army militia launched a new offensive in Jonglei, Unity, and Upper Nile states in South Sudan.  Forces from the government of South Sudan responded with a counteroffensive.  Competing Sudan Armed Forces and paramilitary Rapid Support Forces in Sudan may try to exploit the situation in South Sudan for advantage in their own civil war.  

Renewed Fighting in South Sudan

 The International Crisis Group posted on 21 January 2026 a commentary titled "Rebel Offensive Sounds Onset of War in South Sudan" by Daniel Akech.

Fighting has broken out between the Dinka forces of President Salva Kiir and the Nuer followers of Vice President Riek Machar.  The current situation is stoking ethnic grievances and will likely draw in South Sudan's neighbors in Uganda and factions fighting in Sudan.  

Sudan: Implications of Heglig Capture by RSF

 AEI's Critical Threats Africa File posted on 11 December 2025 an article titled "Sudan" by Michael DeAngelo.  

The paramilitary Rapid Support Forces' capture of the Heglig oil field in South Sudan has intensified the Sudan crisis and brought South Sudan to the brink of war.

Trial of South Sudan's Vice President Threatens Stability

 The International Crisis Group published on 27 November 2025 an analysis titled "A Trial for South Sudan's Frail Peace" by Daniel Akech.

The trial of South Sudan's First Vice President Riek Machar poses a serious threat to the country's stability.  Machar is charged with criminal offenses including treason, murder, and crimes against humanity.  

Succession Concerns in South Sudan

 The International Crisis Group (ICG) published on 1 September 2025 an analysis titled "Succession Fever Deepens South Sudan's Malaise."

As the health of South Sudan's President Salva Kiir declines, there is growing disquiet in the country over Kiir's effort to have inexperienced Benjamin Bol Mel succeed him.  The ICG argues there needs to be a forum where key South Sudanese elites can discuss the political future, including the question of who will replace Kiir.

South Sudan's Latest Crisis: Deja Vu

 World Politics Review published on 20 June 2025 an analysis titled "South Sudan's Latest Crisis Is Following a Familiar Script" by Lesley Anne Warner.

The fragile peace established in South Sudan in 2018 may be unraveling.  South Sudan is returning to form: erosion of power sharing, military fragmentation, and an apparent succession crisis.  

An Heir Apparent in South Sudan

 The International Crisis Group posted on 9 June 2025 a half hour podcast titled "As South Sudan Quakes, an Heir Apparent Rises" with Alan Boswell and Daniel Akech.

The podcast discusses the political decline of President Salva Kiir and Vice President Riek Machar and the rise of wealthy Dinka businessman, Benjamin Bol Mel, who is closely linked to Salva Kiir.  Although much younger than Salva Kiir, Benjamin Bol Mel is not seen as a person who would significantly change the corrupt system in South Sudan.  

Sudan Conflict Spills Over into South Sudan

 AEI's Critical Threats Africa File published on 20 March 2025 an article titled "RSF Attacks Spread to South Sudan" by Kathryn Tyson and John Reece.

There are indications that the civil war in Sudan is spilling over into South Sudan with the Rapid Support Forces supporting Salva Kiir's government and the Sudan Armed Forces backing South Sudan rebels.

South Sudan Is Returning to War

 Foreign Policy published on 1 April 2025 an analysis titled "South Sudan Is Returning to War" by Clemence Pinaud, Indiana University.

The author concluded that "there are currently no restraints on the government of South Sudan from returning to a full-blown war, and from targeting civilians based on their ethnicity."

The Complexities of Conflict in South Sudan

 The International Crisis Group posted on 28 March 2025 a 44-minute podcast titled "South Sudan on the Brink of Another War" hosted by Richard Atwood with Alan Boswell and Daniel Akesh.  

They examine what's behind recent clashes between government forces and opposition-linked militias, which began in Upper Nile State before spreading to other parts of the country.  They also look at President Salva Kiir's government shakeup and how the war in neighboring Sudan has compounded tensions in South Sudan.

Is South Sudan on Brink of Return to Civil War?

 The New York Times published on 17 March 2025 an article titled "How South Sudan Returned to the Brink of War" by Abdi Latif Dahir.

The latest clashes in South Sudan involve the South Sudan national military under President Salva Kiir and an opposition force known as the White Army, which is believed to be allied with Vice President Riek Machar.  The Kiir government accused the White Army of attacking a military garrison while Machar says Kiir is targeting his allies.

South Sudan Facing New Outbreak of Conflict

 The International Crisis Group published a statement dated 7 March 2025 titled "South Sudan on the Precipice of Renewed Full-blown War."

Tensions are rising quickly between the forces that support President Salva Kiir and those who back Vice President Riek Machar.  The civil war raging in neighboring Sudan is contributing to the tension in South Sudan, where violence is likely to escalate.  South Sudan could easily slip back into full scale conflict and ethnic bloodletting.

South Sudan's Shaky Peace Process

 The Conversation published on 26 April 2022 a commentary titled "Peace in South Sudan Hinges on Forging a Unified Military Force: But It Is Proving Hard" by Madhav Joshi, University of Notre Dame.

Creating a unified armed forces is critical to South Sudan's peace process.  Lack of trust by Salva Kiir and Riek Machar is contributing to difficulties in unifying the armed forces.  South Sudan's peace and stability depend on Kiir and Machar ending the politics of brinkmanship.  

South Sudan: The Secret of Salva Kiir's Survival in Power

 African Arguments published on 16 February 2022 a commentary titled "The Pawn Who Became King: How Has Salva Kiir Stayed at the Top So Long?" by Daniel Akech Thiong, independent consultant.

The author concludes that Salva Kiir has survived by employing a combination of carrots and sticks in his interaction with friends and enemies.  

Lessons from a Decade of South Sudanese Independence

 The Africa Center for Strategic Studies published on 29 June 2021 an analysis titled "Lessons from a Decade of South Sudanese Statehood" by Luka Biong Deng Kuol.  

So much went wrong in South Sudan over the past 10 years of independence but many South Sudanese are still proud that they at least have a country of their own that they can fix one day. 

South Sudan's Lost Decade

 Foreign Policy published on 14 July 2021 a commentary titled "South Sudan's Lost Decade" by Lynsey Chutel.

The author noted that two-thirds of South Sudan's population is in dire need of humanitarian assistance.  As a result of disappointing leadership, South Sudan's first decade of independence has been tragic.

Conflict in South Sudan's Equatoria Region

 The US Institute of Peace published in April 2021 a study titled "Conflict and Crisis in South Sudan's Equatoria" by Alan Boswell, International Crisis Group.  

The report examines the conflict in Equatoria region of South Sudan.  It concludes the crisis in Equatoria will likely become entrenched if peace talks do not gain momentum and as resentments from abusive counterinsurgency campaigns mount and disillusionment with the troubled peace process grows.  

South Sudan's Other War

 The International Crisis Group (ICG) published on 25 February 2021 a report titled "South Sudan's Other War: The Insurgency in Equatoria."

This is an account of a little known insurgency in South Sudan's Equatoria region led by General Thomas Cirillo.  

Local Violence Engulfs South Sudan

 UN News published on 19 February 2021 a summary of a new UN Human Rights Commission report on violence in South Sudan.  

The UN Human Rights Council-appointed investigators said the bloodshed faced by civilians in South Sudan is the worst recorded since the country's civil war began in December 2013.  Most of the violence is occurring at the local level.  The Commission members described the situation as shocking.  

Building South Sudan from Scratch

The Association for Diplomatic Studies and Training just posted an oral history interview titled "Building a Country from Scratch--The South Sudanese Transition to Independence (2005-2011)." This is an interview with Gerald Hyman in 2016 based on his experience as a USAID officer in South Sudan until 2007. He signaled concerns that South Sudan was not ready for independence.