The International Crisis Group posted on 29 September 2025 an analysis titled "South Sudan's President Jettisons Unity Government and Hardens Grip on Power" by Daniel Akech.
South Sudan's President Salva Kiir dissolved the transitional unity government in advance of long-delayed elections now scheduled for December. Because of instability in South Sudan, the decision further concentrates power in the hands of Kiir and his family.
The BBC posted on 23 September 2026 an article titled "South Sudan's President Dissolves Government Ahead of Country's First Elections" by Nichola Mandil, Akisa Wandera, and Allan Olingo.
South Sudan's President Salva Kiir dissolved the transitional government three months before the country's first election since its independence in 2011. Kiir removed the country's five vice presidents and dissolved parliament, national, and state governments. Kiir has no viable opposition in the December election.
The Stimson Center published on 24 June 2026 a report titled "The UN Mission in South Sudan in the Context of Changing Security and Regional Dynamics."
The report concludes that the combined effects of a fragile peace process, heightened political tensions, economic deterioration, the spillover of conflict from Sudan, the emerging Ebola crisis in the neighboring DRC, and growing humanitarian pressures have created a volatile environment in South Sudan.
South Sudan continues to grapple with unresolved questions surrounding the political transition and the lack of implementation of the Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan (R-ARCSS), which remains the primary political framework for addressing the conflict and advancing sustainable peace.
The Council on Foreign Relations Global Conflict Tracker posted on 12 June 2026 an updated background piece titled "Instability in South Sudan."
Ten million South Sudanese--nearly 84 percent of the population--need humanitarian assistance, as reports of airstrikes on civilian areas, sexual violence, and forced recruitment have escalated since March 2025.
Foreign Affairs published on 8 April 2026 an article titled "Don't Partition Sudan Again: Splitting It Didn't Work in the Past and Won't Work Now" by Francis M. Deng and Ahmed Kodouda.
Both the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) insist they are fighting to preserve a unified Sudan, but the longer the current geographical division persists, the harder it will be to put the country together again.
The 2011 independence of South Sudan offers a cautionary tale. Any effort to formalize the split between the SAF and RSF-controlled parts of Sudan would not resolve the conflict's root causes. Another partition of Sudan would also destabilize its neighbors.
AEI's Critical Threats Africa File posted on 12 February 2026 an article titled "South Sudan" by Michael DeAngelo.
The Sudan People's Liberation Movement-in-Opposition (SPLM-IO) and the Nuer White Army militia launched a new offensive in Jonglei, Unity, and Upper Nile states in South Sudan. Forces from the government of South Sudan responded with a counteroffensive. Competing Sudan Armed Forces and paramilitary Rapid Support Forces in Sudan may try to exploit the situation in South Sudan for advantage in their own civil war.
The International Crisis Group published on 27 November 2025 an analysis titled "A Trial for South Sudan's Frail Peace" by Daniel Akech.
The trial of South Sudan's First Vice President Riek Machar poses a serious threat to the country's stability. Machar is charged with criminal offenses including treason, murder, and crimes against humanity.
The International Crisis Group posted on 30 October 2025 a 33-minute podcast titled "The Trial of South Sudan's Vice President Riek Machar" with Alan Boswell and Edmund Yakani.
The podcast unpacks the charges against Vice President Riek Machar over his alleged role in a March 2025 attack on an army base in Nasir. It also discusses if there remains a viable path to avoid civil war in the country.
The International Crisis Group reposted on 5 September 2025 a commentary titled "South Sudan's Day of Reckoning Is Nigh" by Daniel Akech.
President Salva Kiir has taken steps to consolidate his power, including setting up Benjamin Bol Mel as his eventual successor. The result is growing political instability. The author called on the leaders of key African governments to urge restraint and push for a broad political forum to discuss the future of South Sudan.
The International Crisis Group (ICG) published on 1 September 2025 an analysis titled "Succession Fever Deepens South Sudan's Malaise."
As the health of South Sudan's President Salva Kiir declines, there is growing disquiet in the country over Kiir's effort to have inexperienced Benjamin Bol Mel succeed him. The ICG argues there needs to be a forum where key South Sudanese elites can discuss the political future, including the question of who will replace Kiir.
The International Crisis Group posted on 18 August 2025 remarks titled "Briefing to UN Security Council on the Situation in South Sudan" by Murithi Mutiga.
The 2018 peace accord, which ended a civil war in South Sudan, appears to be collapsing and the ongoing civil war in neighboring Sudan is extending instability by driving over 1.2 million people into South Sudan.
World Politics Review published on 20 June 2025 an analysis titled "South Sudan's Latest Crisis Is Following a Familiar Script" by Lesley Anne Warner.
The fragile peace established in South Sudan in 2018 may be unraveling. South Sudan is returning to form: erosion of power sharing, military fragmentation, and an apparent succession crisis.
The International Crisis Group posted on 9 June 2025 a half hour podcast titled "As South Sudan Quakes, an Heir Apparent Rises" with Alan Boswell and Daniel Akech.
The podcast discusses the political decline of President Salva Kiir and Vice President Riek Machar and the rise of wealthy Dinka businessman, Benjamin Bol Mel, who is closely linked to Salva Kiir. Although much younger than Salva Kiir, Benjamin Bol Mel is not seen as a person who would significantly change the corrupt system in South Sudan.
The International Crisis Group (ICG) posted on 6 May 2025 a commentary titled "UN Readies for Critical Vote on South Sudan's Arms Embargo" by Maya Ungar.
The UN Security Council will vote in late May on whether to renew the arms embargo on South Sudan for 12 months. Even as the internal security situation deteriorates, the South Sudan government opposes the embargo. The ICG argues that removing the arms embargo now could stoke escalating violence in South Sudan.
AEI's Critical Threats Africa File published on 20 March 2025 an article titled "RSF Attacks Spread to South Sudan" by Kathryn Tyson and John Reece.
There are indications that the civil war in Sudan is spilling over into South Sudan with the Rapid Support Forces supporting Salva Kiir's government and the Sudan Armed Forces backing South Sudan rebels.
Foreign Policy published on 1 April 2025 an analysis titled "South Sudan Is Returning to War" by Clemence Pinaud, Indiana University.
The author concluded that "there are currently no restraints on the government of South Sudan from returning to a full-blown war, and from targeting civilians based on their ethnicity."
The International Crisis Group posted on 28 March 2025 a 44-minute podcast titled "South Sudan on the Brink of Another War" hosted by Richard Atwood with Alan Boswell and Daniel Akesh.
They examine what's behind recent clashes between government forces and opposition-linked militias, which began in Upper Nile State before spreading to other parts of the country. They also look at President Salva Kiir's government shakeup and how the war in neighboring Sudan has compounded tensions in South Sudan.
The Associated Press published on 27 March 2025 an article titled "South Sudan Opposition Says Peace Deal Has Collapsed after Arrest of Its Leader" by Deng Machol.
The government has arrested Vice President Riek Machar, effectively ending the peace agreement between President Salva Kiir and Machar and pushing South Sudan to the brink of civil war.
The New York Times published on 17 March 2025 an article titled "How South Sudan Returned to the Brink of War" by Abdi Latif Dahir.
The latest clashes in South Sudan involve the South Sudan national military under President Salva Kiir and an opposition force known as the White Army, which is believed to be allied with Vice President Riek Machar. The Kiir government accused the White Army of attacking a military garrison while Machar says Kiir is targeting his allies.
The International Crisis Group published a statement dated 7 March 2025 titled "South Sudan on the Precipice of Renewed Full-blown War."
Tensions are rising quickly between the forces that support President Salva Kiir and those who back Vice President Riek Machar. The civil war raging in neighboring Sudan is contributing to the tension in South Sudan, where violence is likely to escalate. South Sudan could easily slip back into full scale conflict and ethnic bloodletting.
