A Retrospective on Sudan-South Sudan Separation and the Future

 The International Crisis Group posted on 18 August 2026 an hour-long podcast titled "Sudan's Separation Fifteen Years Ago and Today's Disaster" with Alan Boswell, Alex de Waal, and Abdul Mohammed.  

Alex de Waal and Abdul Mohammed review the background of South Sudan's independence from Sudan and the African Union High-Level Implementation Panel led by former South African President Thabo Mbeki.  They explained why negotiations ultimately failed to produce two viable states, and whether such coordinated high-level diplomacy is still possible in today's fragmented regional geopolitics.

Efforts to resolve the crises in Sudan and South Sudan today are experiencing greater involvement from the Gulf States and involve a larger number of competing actors.  Mediation today is extremely difficult.  The global environment is highly transactional.  The situation also has the possibility of becoming a regional war.  It is time for the African Union to step forward and play a stronger role in ending the conflicts.  

UK Sanctions Illicit Gold Networks Fueling Sudan's War

 The UK government published on 16 July 2026 a press release titled "UK Sanctions Illicit Gold Networks Fueling Sudan's War Amid Crisis around El Obeid."

The UK government announced sanctions targeting the conflict gold trade in Sudan, procurement networks, and financial facilitators that are fueling the civil war in Sudan.  The sanctions focus primarily on the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces and UAE-based companies, but they include the Sudan Armed Forces and one Hong Kong-based company.  

Additional Sanctions on Sudanese Companies and Individuals

 Foreign Policy posted on 15 July 2026 an article titled "Sudan Faces New Sanctions as Evidence of Atrocities Mounts" by Nosmot Gbadamosi.

The EU and the US have expanded sanctions on individuals and companies that have aided the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and/or the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF).  In the meantime, global efforts to end the war have largely stalled.

Comment:  Numerous sanctions in recent years on the RSF and the SAF have had no impact on bringing this civil war to an end.  

US Connection to Sudan's Rapid Support Forces

 Reuters published on 15 July 2026 an in-depth article titled "The US Army Veteran and the Mystery Boeings Flying Sudan's War Routes" by Alexander Dziadosz, Reade Levinson, and David Lewis.  

Companies registered in Singapore and the UAE owned by a US government, and military contractor and US Army Special Forces veteran have been operating several Boeing aircraft linking regional supply routes of the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Sudan.  The United Nations has accused the RSF of genocide.  The United States has not sanctioned the companies.  

US Imposes New Sanctions on Warring Parties in Sudan

 AEI's Critical Threats Africa File posted on 2 July 2026 an article titled "US Sanctions RSF and SAF" by Michael DeAngelo.  

The United States has imposed additional sanctions on parties backing the Sudan Armed Forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces in Sudan.  These sanctions are part of a long list of US sanctions dating back to 2023.

Comment:  Previous US sanctions on the warring parties in Sudan have had no impact on the fighting and these new sanctions will simply be more of the same.

United States-Eritrea Rapprochement

 The Emirates Policy Center published on 21 May 2026 an analysis titled "The US-Eritrea Rapprochement: Signs and Prospects."

The United States seeks to leverage Eritrea's position on the Red Sea to address maritime tensions and threats, while Asmara is counting on American receptiveness to overcome its isolation and strengthen its capacity to navigate Ethiopian and regional pressures.

The analysis concludes that interaction between the United States and Eritrea will probably remain restricted to functional engagement rather than evolving into a comprehensive and enduring partnership.

Looking Back and Forward at Sudan over the Long Term

 The International Crisis Group posted on 15 May 2026 a 35-minute podcast titled "Sudan, and a Region and World in Upheaval" with Alan Boswell and Nasrine Malik, journalist and author.

The long-standing problem in Sudan is the control over resources by a certain group and the marginalization of the rest.  The old Sudan is gone and cannot be reconstructed.  The country requires a whole new approach, which may take years or more to achieve.

The United States and United Kingdom lack either the interest or ability to bring the civil war to an end.  As the United States withdraws from Africa, the European Union is drifting and not ready to replace the void being left by the United States.

Nasrine Malik discussed the impact of the war in Iran on Africa generally.  It has the potential to destabilize African economies.  The Western conception of human rights is on the wane and being replaced by an individualistic approach to certain human rights challenges. 

Algeria Serves as Hub for Russian Military Flights

 Defense News published on 30 April 2026 an article titled "Investigation: Russia Shadow Airlines Use Algeria as Base for Secretive Missions" by Linus Holler.

A fleet of Russian military-affiliated cargo aircraft is using Algeria as a hub to project Russia's power deeper into Africa and as far as Latin America.  In return, Algeria is receiving Russia's latest fighter aircraft.  

US to Lift Sanctions on Eritrea

 Reuters published on 5 May 2026 an article titled "US to Lift Eritrea Sanctions as Red Sea Tensions Reshape Alliances, Document Says" by Giulia Paravicini.  

The United States is set to remove sanctions against Eritrea imposed by the Biden administration in 2021.  The decision is aimed at improving relations with Eritrea, which has a long Red Sea coastline, while sending a message to landlocked Ethiopia not to use military force to seek an outlet to the sea through Eritrea.  

US in Discussion with Eritrea over Possible Reset in Relations

 The Wall Street Journal published on 22 April 2026 an article titled "U.S. Seeks to Reset Ties with Reclusive but Strategically Vital African State" by Robbie Gramer and Summer Said. 

The Trump administration is exploring ways to reset relations with Eritrea, beginning with the lifting of sanctions.  The administration's special envoy for Africa, Massad Boulos, first met with Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki late last year in Cairo.  

The US war in Ian has elevated the importance of freedom of navigation in the Red Sea, where Eritrea has a long coastline.  

Russia Doubles Down in Africa's Sahel

 The Sentry published in April 2026 a study titled "Doubling Down: Russia's Military Network in West Africa."

Russia's Wagner Group withdrew from Mali in June 2025, largely handing over operations to the Kremlin-controlled Africa Corps, which has about the same number of troops as Wagner and many of them are former Wagner fighters.  Some core leadership also remains the same.

The Africa Corps has been moving a large quantity of weapons into Mali, which suggests that Russia is doubling down on Mali, despite the concurrent withdrawal and multiple failures of the Wagner Group.  

Limitations of Western Efforts to End War in Sudan

 Foreign Policy published on 6 April 2024 an analysis titled "Horrors in Sudan Highlight Deterioration of Western Diplomatic Corps."

There is little willingness by the West to end Sudan's conflict, but there is also little ability to do anything.  Western states have minimal leverage with the two major combatants: The Sudan Armed Forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces.  

US Call about Sudan Ignites Feud between Saudi Arabia and UAE

 The New York Times published on 27 February 2026 an article titled "How a Call from Trump Ignited a Bitter Feud Between Two U.S. Allies" by Vivian Nereim. 

Saudi Arabia reportedly asked the United States to impose sanctions on the UAE for its support of the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Sudan.  A Saudi official said the request was to put additional sanctions on the RSF to prevent them from getting external support, not to impose sanctions directly on the UAE.

While the details of the phone call are in dispute, the episode resulted in a public feud between Saudi Arabia and the UAE.  Relations rapidly deteriorated in December when Saudi Arabia bombed an Emirati shipment to Yemen.  Now, Saudi Arabia and the UAE are supporting opposing sides of conflicting groups in Yemen and Sudan.  

UN Security Council Sanctions 4 Commanders in Sudan's Rapid Support Forces

 The Associated Press published on 25 February 2026 an article titled "UN Sanctions 4 Commanders in Sudan's Paramilitary Force Accused of Atrocities in Sudan" by Edith M. Lederer."

The UN Security Council imposed sanctions on 4 commanders of Sudan's paramilitary Rapid Support Forces suspected of atrocities against civilians.  They face UN travel bans and financial freezes.  

Head of Sudan's Rapid Support Forces Owns Property in UAE

 The Sentry published in February 2026 a report titled "Dubai Properties Linked to Hemedti."

Mohamed "Hemedti" Hamdan Dagalo, the leader of Sudan's paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) is closely linked to a $1.7 million property portfolio in the United Arab Emirates.  

Africa Becomes a Testing Ground for China's Yuan Globalization

 Discovery Alert, an AI-powered mining news publisher, posted on 19 January 2026 an article titled "China's Yuan Globalisation in Africa Accelerates Through 2026" by Muflih Hidayat.  

Africa is emerging as the testing ground for the Chinese yuan to replace the US dollar as China becomes more dominant in African trade.  Factors that support continued growth in China's yuan globalization in Africa are trade expansion, infrastructure investment, debt restructuring, regional integration, and technology advancement.  

Fraying of US-South Africa Relations

 The Washington-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies published on 16 January 2026 a policy brief titled "South Africa Eyes Confrontation with Trump over Growing Ties to China, Russia, Iran" by Max Meizlish and Daniel Swift.

South Africa's ANC-led government is testing the limits of cordial relations with the Trump administration by strengthening its ties with China, Russia, and Iran.  

Iran's Influence in Africa

 The American Foreign Policy Council published in November 2025 an in-depth study titled "Charting Iran's Influence in Africa" by Alexander Brown, Charlotte Krausz, and Rob Gioia.  

Africa is a testing ground for Iran's influence operations, a pathway for sanctions evasion, and strategic depth for its foreign policy initiatives.  After mostly ignoring Africa during Hassan Rouhani's rule (2013-2021), Ibrahim Raisi (2021-2024) reestablished engagement with the continent as a strategic priority.  Iran has sought to leverage latent anti-Western sentiment and exploit the political opening created by the departure of longtime regional players such as France.  

Pressure Mounts on UAE to End Support for Sudan's RSF

 The Washington Post published on 15 November 2025 an article titled "UAE Faces Growing Outrage over Support for Paramilitary in Sudan" by Tobi Raji.

Advocacy groups, members of the US Congress, and regional experts are stepping up their criticism of the UAE for supporting the genocidal activities of the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Sudan.  The UAE continues to deny its support for the RSF as evidence to the contrary mounts.  

Prioritizing Sudan Policy in Washington

 Brookings published on 12 November 2025 a commentary titled "Sudan's Deadly Divide: The RSF and SAF's Reign of Terror" by Jeffrey Feltman, former US special envoy for the Horn of Africa. 

Referring to the Sudan Armed Forces and paramilitary Rapid Support Forces conflict as "fratricide," the author has disdain for both belligerents.  If the Trump administration hopes to achieve a cease fire, it needs to shift Sudan to a higher priority on Washington's already crowded agenda, including direct intervention by President Trump.