An Analysis of the Houthi Red Sea Blockade

 Chatham House published on 24 July 2026 an analysis titled "The Houthi Red Sea Blockade: Will Collective Maritime Security Be Defended or Break Down?" by Nitya Labh and Farea Al-Muslimi.

The rebel Houthis are part of Iran's "Axis of Resistance" but retain significant autonomy.  The Houthi blockade of Saudi ships in the Red Sea acts as a deterrent against regional adversaries and reinforces their legitimacy in Yemen.

The Houthi objective is not to sink large numbers of ships, but to create enough uncertainty for commercial shipping that insurers raise premiums, companies reroute vessels, and governments absorb mounting economic costs.

Iran War Intensifies US-China Competition in Africa

 The Middle East Council on Global Affairs, a policy research institution based in Doha, Qatar, published on 16 July 2026 a commentary titled "Iran War Intensifies U.S.-China Rivalry in Africa" by Mustapha Boudoumi.

Disruptions to maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz have highlighted the strategic importance of African choke points such as the Suez Canal and Bab el-Mandeb.  The situation in Iran has put increasing focus on China-US competition for critical minerals in Africa.  

Will the Houthis Shut Down the Red Sea/Suez Canal Waterway?

 Reuters published on 14 July 2026 an article titled "After Hormuz, Iran Turns to Red Sea Gateway as New Pressure Point" by Samia Nakhoul.

Depending on US and Saudi actions related to the Strait of Hormuz, Iran may ask its Houthi allies in Yemen to shut down the Bab el-Mandeb choke point, which controls international shipping through the Red Sea and Suez Canal.

US in Discussion with Eritrea over Possible Reset in Relations

 The Wall Street Journal published on 22 April 2026 an article titled "U.S. Seeks to Reset Ties with Reclusive but Strategically Vital African State" by Robbie Gramer and Summer Said. 

The Trump administration is exploring ways to reset relations with Eritrea, beginning with the lifting of sanctions.  The administration's special envoy for Africa, Massad Boulos, first met with Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki late last year in Cairo.  

The US war in Ian has elevated the importance of freedom of navigation in the Red Sea, where Eritrea has a long coastline.  

Will War with Iran Impact the Horn of Africa?

 The Emirates Policy Center published on 27 March 2026 an analysis titled "Exacerbating the Risk of Fragility: Consequences of Iran War on the Red Sea and the Horn of Africa Region."

The Horn of Africa and Red Sea may become an arena for escalating regional and international conflict as Iran seeks to expand its confrontation with the US and Israel.  It could escalate existing local conflicts, intensify competition by regional powers such as Türkiye and Egypt, and cause a recalibration of foreign policy alignments.  

China Strongly Opposes Israel's Recognition of Somaliland

 The South China Morning Post published on 29 December 2025 an article titled "China Hits Out at 'Support for Separatist Forces' After Israel Recognizes Somaliland" by Jevans Nyabiage.

China has strongly criticized Israel's recognition of Somaliland, which declared unilateral independence from Somalia in 1991.  Israel is the first country to formally recognize Somaliland.  China has taken a strong position on the Somaliland issue because it coincides with its position on Taiwan.  

What Next for Houthi Red Sea Attacks?

 The Washington Institute for Near East Policy published on 16 July 2025 an analysis titled "Lethal Attacks Show Strengthened Houthi Control over Red Sea Transit" by Noam Raydan and Farzin Nadimi.  

The latest Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping that resulted in the sinking of two commercial ships constituted an escalation of their tactics.  The scale and boldness of the attacks was unprecedented.  Moving forward, Houthis have the will and the ability to sink more ships.  

Yemen's Houthis Attack Second Ship in the Red Sea

 The New York Times posted on 8 July 2025 an article titled "Attack on Cargo Ship in the Red Sea Kills 2 Crew Members" by Vivian Nereim and Nick Cumming-Bruce.  

Yemen's Houthi rebels attacked a second Liberian-flagged and Greek-owned ship this week in the Red Sea.  On this occasion, they killed 2 crew members and injured 2 others.  

An Assessment of US Airstrikes on Houthi Rebels in Yemen

 The CTC Sentinel published in June 2025 an analysis titled "Feature Commentary: An Assessment of Operation Rough Rider" by Gregory Johnsen, an expert on Yemen.  

The United States carried out more than 1,100 airstrikes over 52 days this past spring against Houthi rebels in Yemen.  This article provides an assessment of that campaign known as Operation Rough Rider.  The US intelligence community reportedly concluded that the airstrikes caused "some degradation" but the Houthis were in a position to easily reconstitute, regroup, and rebound.  The Red Sea crisis is far from over.  

What Has the US Understanding with the Houthis Accomplished?

 The reason.com, a libertarian magazine, posted on 7 May 2025 an article titled "Trump Gets Bored with the War in Yemen" by Matthew Petti.  

President Trump claimed victory over the Houthis on 6 May, ensuring freedom of navigation through the Red Sea. A Houthi leader said, however, that direct attacks on Israel would continue.

Sourcing Journal posted on 7 May 2025 an article titled "Trump Says Houthis Will Cease Attacks on Red Sea Shipping" by Glenn Taylor.

President Trump said the Houthis have told us that "they don't want to fight anymore."  He added "they have capitulated."  It remains unclear, however, if the Houthis will stop attacks on all international shipping or just American and UK-flagged vessels. There was no mention of ending attacks on Israel.  

US Airstrikes on the Houthis in Yemen: How Does It End?

 Vox published on 24 April 2025 a commentary titled "The US Has Quietly Gotten into Another War in the Middle East" by Joshua Keating.

In the current campaign against the Houthis in Yemen, there have been at least 250 US airstrikes.  The Trump administration says it is satisfied with the results so far.  On the other hand, there is a widespread belief among regional analysts that airstrikes alone will not defeat the Houthis.  While it is too early to declare the United States has entered a quagmire, it is also unclear how this US engagement ends.  

Where Is the War against the Houthis Leading?

 The New York Times published on 24 April 2025 a commentary titled "A Beleaguered Hegseth Wanders into His Forever War" by W.J. Hennigan.

The cost of the US military operation against the Houthis in Yemen is expected to reach $2 billion in May.  The Houthis have shot down 6 $30 million MQ-9 Reaper drones and continue to resist.  The author argues that the US will soon confront the same no-win decision that bedeviled Trump's predecessors in the Middle East: retreat or escalate.  

What Has Been Accomplished with War on Houthis?

 Foreign Policy published on 22 April 2025 titled "Trump's War on the Houthis Is Going Nowhere" by Keith Johnson.

 The Trump administration has spent more than $1 billion in airstrikes on the Houthis, who remain as defiant as ever.  The Houthis charge that the administration has waded into a "quagmire."  There has been little transparency from the US side concerning the airstrikes, which are burning through precision munitions at a rapid rate. 

 

Is US Preparing to Support Yemeni Militias in Ground War Against Houthis?

 The Wall Street Journal published on 14 April 2025 an article titled "U.S. Strikes Spur Plans for Yemeni Ground War Against Houthis" by Benoit Faucon, Nancy A. Youssef, and Saleh al-Batati.

Yemeni militias sense an opportunity to relaunch a ground war against the Iranian-backed Houthis as a component of continuing US airstrikes on Houthi targets.  According to this report, the US is open to supporting a ground operation by Yemeni militia forces.

Comment:  Saudi Arabia, drawing heavily on Sudanese mercenaries, and troops from the United Arab Emirates tried without much success to take control of Houthi-controlled parts of Yemen in a war that lasted from 2015 to 2022.  If this new offensive goes forward, one hopes it learned the lessons of the largely unsuccessful earlier effort.  

Visual Explainer of Houthi Red Sea Attacks

 The International Crisis Group has just posted a visual explainer titled "The Houthis' Red Sea Attacks Explained."  It provides a nice visual summary of Houthi attacks in the Red Sea up to the recent response by the Trump administration.

US Airstrikes Weaken but Do Not Break Houthis in Yemen

 The Wall Street Journal published on 27 March 2025 an article titled "Houthis Weakened but Not Broken by First Round of Trump Strikes" by Saleh al-Batati, Carrie Keller-Lynn, and Sudarsan Raghavan.  

The Trump administration's airstrikes on Houthi rebels in Yemen have not yet achieved the US goal of deterring the US-designated terrorist group.  Since the US airstrikes began on 15 March, the Houthis have launched missiles and drones at the USS Harry S. Truman, an aircraft carrier stationed in the Red Sea.  Houthi missile launches are down but the Houthis have demonstrated in the past an ability to adapt to new challenges.  

Will the US End the Threat Posed by Yemen's Houthi Rebels?

 The Council on Foreign Relations published on 21 March 2025 a commentary titled "The Siege of the Red Sea" by Michael Froman.

Large scale US air strikes on the Houthi rebels in Yemen by the Trump administration have escalated the attacks beyond what was done during the Biden administration.  Nevertheless, the Houthis remain defiant, and the outcome of this campaign remains uncertain.  

Will Enhanced Air Attacks on Houthis Neutralize Threat?

 Foreign Policy published on 18 March 2025 a commentary titled "Trump Dramatically Escalates Military Strikes on Yemen's Houthis" by Keith Johnson and Rishi Ivengar.

Drawing on the views of military analysts, the authors question whether naval airpower can subdue the land-based Houthi movement in Yemen.  You probably have to use ground forces, and the US has no stomach for that.

Do US Air Strikes Signal Game Over for the Houthis?

 Foreign Policy published on 19 March 2025 an analysis titled "Is This Game Over for the Houthis?" by Burcu Ozcelik and Baraa Shiban, both at the Royal United Services Institute.

The shift in US policy under the Trump administration from targeted air strikes to a more aggressive campaign marks a significant escalation in the attacks on the Houthis in Yemen.  The Houthis see themselves as playing the role that Hezbollah once played.  

Most observers agree that a ground operation by US forces is unlikely, which means there is a clear limitation to how much the US can achieve through airstrikes alone.  The Houthis are counting on the US losing interest over the course of a protracted air campaign.  

Seeking Stability in the Red Sea Region

 The International Crisis Group published on 21 March 2025 an analysis titled "Calming the Red Sea's Turbulent Waters."

The lengthy study concluded: "Now that the ceasefire has collapsed, renewed salvos between the U.S. and the Houthis, as well as the Houthis and Israel, amid rising tensions between Western states and Iran, and the potential for a fresh upsurge in fighting in Yemen have cast a darkening pall over the region.  Lasting stability in the Red Sea will depend on steering these conflicts toward a peaceful conclusion."