A Retrospective on Sudan-South Sudan Separation and the Future

 The International Crisis Group posted on 18 August 2026 an hour-long podcast titled "Sudan's Separation Fifteen Years Ago and Today's Disaster" with Alan Boswell, Alex de Waal, and Abdul Mohammed.  

Alex de Waal and Abdul Mohammed review the background of South Sudan's independence from Sudan and the African Union High-Level Implementation Panel led by former South African President Thabo Mbeki.  They explained why negotiations ultimately failed to produce two viable states, and whether such coordinated high-level diplomacy is still possible in today's fragmented regional geopolitics.

Efforts to resolve the crises in Sudan and South Sudan today are experiencing greater involvement from the Gulf States and involve a larger number of competing actors.  Mediation today is extremely difficult.  The global environment is highly transactional.  The situation also has the possibility of becoming a regional war.  It is time for the African Union to step forward and play a stronger role in ending the conflicts.  

Somali Government Officials: Isolated with Dual Citizenship and Foreign Passports

 African Arguments published on 11 August 2026 a commentary titled "Somalia: A Government with One Foot Out the Door" by Ismail Abukar, a human rights advocate based in Mogadishu.  

A significant percentage of Somali officials are effectively ghost workers who do not come to their offices.  Many have foreign passports and dual citizenship.  At the same time, remittances from the diaspora have kept Somalia solvent.  

UK Sanctions Illicit Gold Networks Fueling Sudan's War

 The UK government published on 16 July 2026 a press release titled "UK Sanctions Illicit Gold Networks Fueling Sudan's War Amid Crisis around El Obeid."

The UK government announced sanctions targeting the conflict gold trade in Sudan, procurement networks, and financial facilitators that are fueling the civil war in Sudan.  The sanctions focus primarily on the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces and UAE-based companies, but they include the Sudan Armed Forces and one Hong Kong-based company.  

Africa Youth Survey: Perceptions of China and US

 The Ichikowitz Family Foundation just published its massive African Youth Survey 2026.  It held face-to-face interviews with about 5,000 Africans aged 18-24 from 16 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa.  

It covers many issues, but the focus here is perceptions of China and the United States.  African youth see China (79 percent) and the United States (81 percent) as the most influential foreign actors, although China's influence is seen as somewhat more positive.

The survey looked at the influence of the US, China, Brazil, EU, UK, Germany, France, India, and Russia.  The only country whose influence was seen as less positive than the United States (85 percent) was Russia (83 percent).  

About 3 in 5 youth are optimistic about Africa's future during the Trump administration, especially on military support and security.  Just under half believe the closure of USAID will negatively impact their country, with healthcare and disease prevention seen as the areas most affected.  

China and India are increasingly viewed as more favorable partners than the United States, a sentiment shaped in part by the return of the Trump administration.  

Is the West Losing Out in the Seychelles?

 The Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies published on 23 July 2026 an analysis titled "Losing Control of the West's Longstanding Interests in Seychelles" by Wojciech Pawlus.

The author suggests that the West is losing out in the democratic Indian Ocean archipelago of Seychelles to India, China, Russia, and the Gulf States.  He believes the current government is becoming more autocratic and urges Washington, Brussels, London, and Paris to reach out before it is too late.

Somali States Align Against Mogadishu

 AEI's Critical Threats Africa File posted on 16 July 2026 an article titled "Puntland Standoff with the Federal Government of Somalia" by Michael DeAngelo and Aaryaman Shah.

Ties between the Somali government in Mogadishu and Puntland state continue to deteriorate as Mogadishu implements its constitutional and electoral agenda.  The national Somali Future Council (SFC) opposition coalition, which includes Puntland and Jubaland states and leading Somali opposition figures, has threatened to hold parallel elections and establish new government structures if Mogadishu continues to implement its agenda.  

Podcast of Somaliland's Culture and History

 Higher Education Today posted about a month ago a 29-minute podcast titled "Culture and History of Somaliland" hosted by Steven Roy Goodman with Jama Musa Jama, Hargeisa Cultural Centre, and Lee Cassanelli, professor emeritus at the University of Pennsylvania.  

This is a positive account filmed in Hargeisa of Somaliland's history and culture, interspersed with video clips of the country.  

Turkey Tries to Mediate Somali Political Dispute

 Facility for Talo and Leadership Somalia, a policy institute and training center, posted on 9 June 2026 an article titled "Turkish Delegation Works to Ease Somalia Election Standoff."

A Turkish delegation visited Mogadishu in an effort to facilitate direct negotiations between President Hassan Sheikh and his political opponents concerning a postponed election.  Turkey has frequently intervened to mediate disputes in Somalia.  

Seychelles More Positive on India and China than US

 Afrobarometer posted on 1 June 2026 a news release titled "Majority of Seychellois Welcome the Influence of India and China, Favour Neutrality in the Russia-Ukraine War."

Favorable perceptions of China's influence on Seychelles have increased significantly in recent years while those of the United States have fallen.  An overwhelming majority of Seychellois favor neutrality on Russia's war against Ukraine but more have a negative than positive perception of Russia's influence on Seychelles.  

Looking Back and Forward at Sudan over the Long Term

 The International Crisis Group posted on 15 May 2026 a 35-minute podcast titled "Sudan, and a Region and World in Upheaval" with Alan Boswell and Nasrine Malik, journalist and author.

The long-standing problem in Sudan is the control over resources by a certain group and the marginalization of the rest.  The old Sudan is gone and cannot be reconstructed.  The country requires a whole new approach, which may take years or more to achieve.

The United States and United Kingdom lack either the interest or ability to bring the civil war to an end.  As the United States withdraws from Africa, the European Union is drifting and not ready to replace the void being left by the United States.

Nasrine Malik discussed the impact of the war in Iran on Africa generally.  It has the potential to destabilize African economies.  The Western conception of human rights is on the wane and being replaced by an individualistic approach to certain human rights challenges. 

UN Peacekeepers Defy South Sudan Government Order to Abandon Town

 The Associated Press published on 10 March 2026 an article titled "UN Peacekeepers Defy South Sudan Military's Order to Leave Opposition-held Town" by Florence Miettaux and Deng Machol.  

The UN peacekeeping mission in South Sudan refused to comply with an order from the South Sudan government to shut down its base in Akobo, an opposition stronghold near the Ethiopian border where thousands of refugees have fled.  South Sudan government forces intend to attack the town.

Will Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen Resume Attacks on Israel and Red Sea Shipping?

 The Hause of Saud, a Saudi Royal Family news and information platform, posted on 6 March 2026 an analysis titled "The Houthi Trigger--Why Yemen's Decision Could Be More Dangerous Than the Iran War Itself" by Abdul Mohammed.

In an excellent and timely analysis, the author explains that the Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen are debating whether to join the Iran war.  If they resume attacks on Red Sea international shipping alongside the Hormuz closure, 28 percent of global oil trade faces simultaneous disruption.  

The Houthis are engaged in the single most important strategic decision facing any non-state actor in the current conflict. Their choice to enter or abstain from the Iran war will determine whether the world faces an unprecedented dual-chokepoint crisis, whether Saudi Arabia's $500 billion NEOM megaproject becomes a frontline target, and whether the global economy tips from disruption into recession.  

The Houthis must decide whether to join Iran in opposing Operation Epic Fury or abandon Iran.  There are apparently sharp disagreements among Houthi factions over how to respond.  

Artificial Intelligence for Africa's Defense Forces

 The Africa Center for Strategic Studies published in February 2026 a major study titled "Artificial Intelligence for Africa's Defense Forces: A Toolkit for Defense Sector AI Strategy and Adoption."

This toolkit is a resource for African defense professionals to develop and adopt artificial intelligence policies, strategies, guidance, systems, and tools.  It defines and illustrates some of the most relevant use cases, discusses how to guide the development of AI systems, processes, and personnel, suggests how to adapt AI to Africa's security environment, and outlines good practices that can be used to inform the development of defense sector AI strategy.

AI is no longer a futuristic prospect for Africa's defense forces, but an increasingly embedded tactical reality shaping military operations from the Sahel to the Cape.  Like past inventions such as steam power, electricity, and the internet, AI is fast becoming an essential technology that will underpin the future of warfare.  

As UK and US Retreat from Africa, China Steps Up Media Effort

 The Independent published on 30 January 2026 an article titled "How UK Aid Cuts Help China Win the Battle for Hearts and Minds in Africa" by Dani Madrid-Morales, University of Sheffield.

The British and American retreat from Africa is being cleverly exploited by China to win the hearts and minds of Africans.  Much of China's success is due to its all-out effort to dominate the media domain in Africa as Western outlets pull back.

Sudan: Business Connections between Rapid Support Forces and UAE

 The Sentry published in October 2025 a report titled "The RSF's Business Network in the UAE."

The report details the extensive business connections between Sudan's paramilitary Rapid Support Forces and private companies in the UAE.  

Efforts at UN to End Sudan Conflict

 The Associated Press published on 26 September 2025 an article titled "World Leaders Step Up Efforts Behind the Scenes at the UN to End the War in Sudan" by Edith M. Lederer.

The Quad (United States, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and UAE) met on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly and called for a ceasefire in Sudan followed and concluded within 9 months by a process that results in a civilian government having broad legitimacy.  A separate group convened by the African Union and European Union supported the Quad proposal and called on the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces and the Sudan Armed Forces to reach a permanent ceasefire.  

China-US Competition in East Africa's LAPSSET Corridor

 The London School of Economics and Political Science posted on 18 September 2025 a commentary titled "China's LAPSSET Corridor and the US's Stakes in the Horn of Africa" by Tewodros Woldearegay, Lingnan University.  

China is financing and building development projects in the Lamu Port-South Sudan-Ethiopia Transport (LAPSSET) Corridor designed to create an East African economic zone.  China's engagement threatens to limit long-standing US security interests in the region.  The author argues that the US and its allies need to do a better job of offering economic and security alternatives to counter China's initiatives.  

Eritrean Defense Forces Intervention in Ethiopia's Tigray Region

 The Sentry published in June 2025 a report titled "Power and Plunder: The Eritrean Defense Forces Intervention in Tigray."

The war in Ethiopia's Tigray Region resulted in a humanitarian crisis of immense proportions.  War crimes were perpetrated by all parties to the conflict, but the nature of atrocities and war profiteering carried out by the Eritrean Defense Forces (EDF) was unmatched in scale and premeditation.  The EDF engaged in massacres, widespread sexual violence, and systematic looting, including of Tigrayan factory machinery, medical supplies and equipment, and cultural antiquities.      

Contest for the Indian Ocean

 The July 2025 issue of Asia Policy contains a book review roundtable of Darshana M. Baruah's book titled The Contest for the Indian Ocean and the Making of a New World Order (Yale University Press 2024).  The focus of the book is great power competition and the role of the island countries in the Indian Ocean.

The roundtable consists of the following brief discussions:

--Power Asymmetry and Competition in the Indo-Pacific: The Island States of the Indian Ocean by Frederic Grare.

--Prioritizing the Indian Ocean in the Indo-Pacific by Nilanthi Samaranayake.

--The Agency of Island States in the Geopolitics of the Indian Ocean by Isabelle Saint-Mezard.

--The Island States Have Agency in the Contest for the Indian Ocean--But How? by Pradeep Taneja.

--Opening, Broadening, and Deepening the 'Geo' in the Geoppolitics of the Indian Ocean by Sanjay Chaturvedi.

--Author's Response: Reframing the Indian Ocean Debate by Darshana M. Baruah.

Sudan Peace Talks Postponed

 AEI's Critical Threats Africa File published on 21 August 2025 an article titled "Sudan" by Ellery White and Liam Karr.  

The United States planned to hold peace talks in late July with the major external actors in the Sudan conflict Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE.  Last minute disagreements between the UAE and Egypt resulted in a postponement of the talks until at least September.