Ethiopia Insight published on 29 January 2024 a commentary titled "Is Ethiopia's Disintegration an Inevitable and Necessary Evil?" by Hambisa Belina, Morgan State University.
The author begins by stating that "the real question is not if Ethiopia will disintegrate, but when and how." He argues that the international community should help organize "a smooth and orderly birthing of new democratic states." He adds: "Although the immense obstacles to achieving a peaceful disintegration must be recognized, they are not insurmountable if external actors support such a process."
Comment: It appears that the author bases his analysis largely on Ethiopia's post-World War II history and tends to ignore the previous 2,000 years. While Ethiopia is a deeply troubled country today and possibly at a crossroads, there is no inevitability about its disintegration. It has weathered equally difficult periods in the past, albeit not with the same international borders as today. The idea that outside powers could help birth an undetermined number of independent, economically viable, democratic states strikes me as fantasy.
