Is Ethiopia's Disintegration Inevitable?

 Ethiopia Insight published on 29 January 2024 a commentary titled "Is Ethiopia's Disintegration an Inevitable and Necessary Evil?" by Hambisa Belina, Morgan State University.

The author begins by stating that "the real question is not if Ethiopia will disintegrate, but when and how."  He argues that the international community should help organize "a smooth and orderly birthing of new democratic states."  He adds: "Although the immense obstacles to achieving a peaceful disintegration must be recognized, they are not insurmountable if external actors support such a process."

Comment:  It appears that the author bases his analysis largely on Ethiopia's post-World War II history and tends to ignore the previous 2,000 years.  While Ethiopia is a deeply troubled country today and possibly at a crossroads, there is no inevitability about its disintegration.  It has weathered equally difficult periods in the past, albeit not with the same international borders as today.  The idea that outside powers could help birth an undetermined number of independent, economically viable, democratic states strikes me as fantasy.  

Oromo Group Calls for Confederation in Ethiopia

 Foreign Policy published on 27 November 2021 a commentary titled "Ethiopia's Breakup Doesn't Have to Be Violent" by Teferi Mergo, University of Waterloo in Canada, and Kebene Kejela, University of St. Gallen in Switzerland.  Both are affiliated with the Baro Tumsa Institute, an organization registered in the state of Maryland with ties to the Oromo Liberation Front.  

The authors of this controversial piece call for the different parts of Ethiopia to decide their future by holding referenda according to article 39 of the constitution, resulting in a "confederation" of Ethiopian states.  

Comment:  After posting this blog, one of the authors contacted me and explained that the Baro Tumsa Institute (BTI) is not affiliated with the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF).  While some BTI members might have affiliations with the OLF, it is not accurate to link BTI with the OLF.  There are BTI members who have no affiliations with the OLF or with any Oromo political organization.  

I apologize for misleading readers of my blog post.  

A Dayton Peace Process for Ethiopia?

 Politico published on 17 October 2021 a commentary titled "Ethiopia Is Plunging into Chaos.  It's Time for a New Dayton Peace Process" by Alex Rondos, former EU Representative to the Horn of Africa, and Mark Medish, who served on the Dayton Peace implementation team.  

The authors argue that only a comprehensive political settlement will end the ongoing tragedy in Ethiopia, something that looks like the Dayton Peace Process.  

Ethiopia's Future: Ethiopian Professor Takes Issue with Kaplan's Analysis

 Foreign Policy posted on 22 July 2021 an analysis titled "Ethiopia's Problems Stem from Internal Colonialism" by Teferi Mergo, University of Waterloo in Canada.

The author takes issue with a recent commentary by Robert Kaplan (see 10 July below) and argues that the Yugoslavia analogy is much closer to the unfolding reality in Ethiopia.

Ethiopia Will Survive

 Foreign Policy published on 8 July 2021 a commentary titled "Ethiopia's Problems Aren't Postcolonial" by Robert D. Kaplan, Foreign Policy Research Institute and well known author.  

Kaplan argues that Ethiopia seems on the verge of falling apart, but it won't.  It is more than a state, not less than one.  It is not postcolonial.  It will not follow the example of Yugoslavia or Russia.  Ethiopia is simply too substantial to fall apart.

According to Kaplan, the question is, who will rule Ethiopia: the Tigrayans of the north, the historically dominant Amharas, or the demographically powerful Oromos?

Ethiopia: Ethnic Issues Beyond Tigray

 The International Crisis Group broadcast on 4 December 2020 a 28 minute podcast titled "As Conflicts Mount, Where Does Ethiopia Go from Here?" with Adem Kassie Abebe, International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance.

Numerous cases of ethnic violence continue in Ethiopia that extend well beyond Tigray Region.  The author believes the overriding issue in Ethiopia today is the conflict between ethnic federalism and pan-Ethiopianism.  Abiy Ahmed, he argues, is trying to occupy the  middle ground between these two philosophies although his opponents see him in the pan-Ethiopian camp.  

Don't Let Ethiopia Become the Next Yugoslavia

Foreign Policy posted on 15 January 2019 a commentary titled "Don't Let Ethiopia Become the Next Yugoslavia" by Florian Bieber, University of Graz in Austria, and Wondemagegn Tadesse Goshu, Addis Ababa University.

Similar to the former Yugoslavia, Ethiopia is a federal state with nine units organized along ethnic lines. Empowering ethnic groups through territorial autonomy has been a double-edged sword. While allowing self-government has reduced tensions stemming from the dominance of a particular group, it places ethnic belonging at the center of politics, links it to territory, and therefore risks an eventual increase in ethnic tensions. The Yugoslav scenario offers a cautionary tale.